!!!!!CORRECTED TDMMC PT, WEEK FIVE!!!!!!!!

[MaineDolFan]

TDMMC Power Ten, week 5!
#1.  Steelers
Total points:  87
High vote: #1
Low vote: #5

#2.  Jets
Total points:  82
High vote: #1
Low vote: #7

#3.  Ravens
Total points:  81
High vote:  #1
Low vote:  #7

#4. Falcons
Total points:  67
High vote:  #2
Low vote:  #9

#5.  Patriots
Total points:  52
High vote:  #1
Low vote:  #8
1 members did not vote for this team

#6.  Packers
Total points:  40
High vote:  #3
Low vote:  #10
1 member did not vote for this team

#7.  Colts
Total points:  38
High vote: #3
Low vote: #10
1 member did not vote for this team

#8.  Chiefs
Total points:  29
High vote: #5
Low vote:  #8
3 members did not vote for this team

#9.  Bears
Total points: 26
High vote:  #5
Low vote: #10
2 members did not vote for this team

#10.  Saints
Total points: 14
High vote:  #5
Low vote:  #10
5 members did not vote for this team

Other votes cast:
Texans (12 points)
Redskins (9 points)
Giants (6 points)
Bucs (5 points)
Eagles (3 points)

[AZ Fins Fan 55]

Wow someone voted the Texans @ number 5 and the Colts @ number 3.

Those kind of shock me.

[Sunstroke]

I guess I'm "a little" surprised to still see Houston so low on the PT...no surprise to see KC come down a little bit.

I also think that, with Roethlisberger returning this week, Pittsburgh may drop a padlock on that top spot for a while...

[Brian Fein]

Someone didn't vote for the Patriots but someone voted for the Bucs instead?

The Bucs?

Seriously....  the Bucs?

What?

The Saints don't deserve to be on this list, IMO.

[Tenshot13]

Someone didn't vote for the Patriots but someone voted for the Bucs instead?

The Bucs?

Seriously....  the Bucs?

What?

The Saints don't deserve to be on this list, IMO.

You mean the 3-1 Bucs who could very well win their division this year?  I put them and the Pats on my list so I don't know who omitted NE.

[Dave Gray]

I had the Colts at 3, which I don't think is all that crazy.  I had them ranked at #5 last week, then they offed an undefeated team by 10 points (2 teams above them lost, as well.)

I'm surprised about 2 things:
1 - I thought I was going to take a ton of crap for excluding the Giants.  I think that they are a good team on the rise, but are just on the cusp and I need to see one more week from them before I get on board.  I figured you all would have them higher.  Good for us, I guess.

2 - The Texans and Saints making the list.  I think that they're probably a decent team, but they seem to be a team on the decline right now, where a team like the Redskins (or Giants) seem to be getting better. 

I also still voted for the Packers (and pretty highly).  They lost a close game to a missed kick in overtime on the road to another good team.  I am not ready to count them out yet.

[Pappy13]

No votes for the Titans or the Packers, but 3-2 Houston is on here with 12 points.  That's a bit surprising in my opinion.

[Dave Gray]

^ The Packers got votes (I had them at #5).

[fyo]

1 - I thought I was going to take a ton of crap for excluding the Giants.  I think that they are a good team on the rise, but are just on the cusp and I need to see one more week from them before I get on board.
[...]
2 - The Texans and Saints making the list.  I think that they're probably a decent team, but [...]

I had all three on my list last week, but dropped the Texans this week. I didn't really feel that the Saints and Giants deserved to be in the top 10, but no other team(s) seemed worthy either, so they ended up getting the spots almost by default (8 and 10, respectively).

No votes for the Titans or the Packers

^ The Packers got votes (I had them at #5).

Yeah, what happened to the Pack?

I voted for them as well (#6)! We want a recount! ;-)

[fyo]

The Chiefs are ridiculously overrated and will continue to be so all season. Barring injuries, they'll be the 2008 Dolphins. 11-5, division title, first round playoff loss.

Their remaining schedule is so weak, it makes the 2008 Dolphins schedule look tough.
@ Houston
Jacksonville
Buffalo
@ Oakland
@ Denver
Arizona
@ Seattle
Denver
@San Diego
@ St. Louis
Tennessee
Oakland

Add that to their past schedule of the Browns and 49ers (in addition to the Colts and Chargers) and the stage is set for 11 wins... providing they stay reasonably healthy.

[Fau Teixeira]

i voted for green bay too

[Pappy13]

Let me preface this by saying that I keep a spreadsheet of ESPN's power rankings for each week and based off that, determine a strength of schedule for every team in the NFL.  A teams strength of schedule is based off the ranking of their opponent for the week that they played them.  For example Miami has played BUF, MIN, NYJ and NE and their respective rankings at the time they played them were 31, 6, 6 & 10.  If you average that you get an average opponent ranking of 13.25.  To put that into perspective, it would be the equivalent of playing the 13th ranked team 4 times in a row.  That happens to be 7th toughest in the NFL thru 5 weeks.

Why am I telling you this?  Well it sometimes shows some interesting information.  For example the toughest schedule of all the teams in the NFL up to this point happens to belong to the Buffalo Bills.  They have played MIA, GB, NE, NYJ and JAC which at the time they played them were ranked 11, 2, 9, 7 & 22 for a strength of schedule of 10.20.  That's like playing 5 straight top 10 teams.  So while Buffalo's record of 0-5 looks bad, consider that San Diego has a league worst strength of schedule of 25.60 thru the first 5 games.  If San Diego would have had to play Buffalo's schedule, I contend they would be 0-5 as well.

What else jumps out?  Well Green Bay's schedule has been pretty favorable as well with a strength of schedule of only 20.80, 29th in the league up to this point.  It's possible that Green Bay isn't nearly as good as we think they are and with the amount of injuries they have this week, I think it's possible that Miami could take advantage of them.  Miami's been playing some fairly tough teams even if they have been a bit nicked up.  Miami itself hasn't exactly been healthy, but this week they get a couple players back from injury.  Miami should win this game and it really shouldn't be all that close if Aaron Rogers doesn't play.

And since some people seem to be down on Kansas City, you might be surprised to see that KC's sos is 18, tied for 20th in the league.  Not tough, but not exactly cupcakes either.  They've actually had a tougher schedule than Chicago, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

Below is the current spreadsheet if you're interested.

Team                    1       2       3       4       5       Str of Sched
Buffalo Bills           11      2       9       7       22      10.20      
New York Giants         23      5       15      6       7       11.20      
Pittsburgh Steelers     7       9       21      8               11.25      
Washington Redskins     4       7       31      14      3       11.80      
Minnesota Vikings       2       15      29              4       12.50      
New York Jets           6       4       7       32      15      12.80      
Miami Dolphins          31      6       6       10              13.25      
Denver Broncos          25      21      4       13      6       13.80      
San Francisco 49ers     26      1       20      5       17      13.80      
Carolina Panthers       19      28      11      2       11      14.20      
Dallas Cowboys          17      22      3               19      15.25      
Cleveland Browns        30      23      8       12      5       15.60      
Baltimore Ravens        9       17      30      1       21      15.60      
Houston Texans          1       14      17      28      20      16.00      
New England Patriots    12      11      32      11              16.50      
Detroit Lions           21      18      18      4       24      17.00      
Jacksonville Jaguars    22      12      16      3       32      17.00      
Indianapolis Colts      14      16      22      26      10      17.60      
New Orleans Saints      5       20      10      29      25      17.80      
Tennessee Titans        24      10      19      23      14      18.00      
Atlanta Falcons         18      19      1       25      27      18.00      
Kansas City Chiefs      8       32      23              9       18.00      
Oakland Raiders         16      31      24      9       12      18.40      
Chicago Bears           28      8       2       24      30      18.40      
Arizona Cardinals       32      13      27      18      2       18.40      
Cincinnati Bengals      10      3       28      30      23      18.80      
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    29      26      5               18      19.50      
Seattle Seahawks        13      25      13      27              19.50      
Green Bay Packers       15      30      12      31      16      20.80      
Philadelphia Eagles     3       29      25      21      28      21.20      
St. Louis Rams          20      27      14      19      31      22.20      
San Diego Chargers      27      24      26      22      29      25.60   
   

[fyo]

Comparing our rankings with Vegas lines, a couple of notables emerge:

-> Eagles (unranked) 3 point favorites against the Falcons (#4).
-> Houston (#10) 4.5 point favorites against the Chiefs (#7).

Even adjusting for home field advantage, Vegas thinks we're pretty significantly overrating the Falcons and Chiefs.

[fyo]

Pappy, ESPN's power rankings are notoriously win-based -- a dangerous proposition early in the season. I'd also contend that using the rankings at the time of the game, especially early in the season, is of less value than using the latest possible ranking. Granted, teams can improve or fall apart during the season, but the rankings are basically just hogwash early. Easy example: The Chargers played the Chiefs in week 1. No one had them as even a remotely average team at that point, so the Chargers are stuck with a "27" in your SoS calculation, despite playing a team that was, objectively, clearly not the 6th weakest team in the league at that point (or now). ESPN have them at #10 now, which would seem much more indicative of their strength.

I should note, however (and I realize I'm going against Internet Discussion Techniques 101 here by undermining my own argument), that "unbiased" stats agree with you at this point. FootballOutsiders, for example, have the Chiefs with the 15th strongest SoS, while the Chargers have the 30th strongest. (And the Bills with the 4th strongest).

(Optimistic note for any remaining 49ers fans out there, i.e.Stroke: The 49ers are credited with the strongest past strength of schedule, while featuring the weakest future schedule.)

[Pappy13]

Pappy, ESPN's power rankings are notoriously win-based

Agreed, however it is how the team is PERCEIVED at that time.  It's been thrown around here that you are what your record says you are.

I'd also contend that using the rankings at the time of the game, especially early in the season, is of less value than using the latest possible ranking.

I disagree.  Again I'm basing my strength of schedule off how the team is PERCEIVED at the time you play them, not how they are playing in 2 or 3 weeks.  Things change drastically over a couple weeks.  Miami was ranked near the top after 2 weeks and has now dropped considerably.  Is that due to the fact that Miami really isn't as good as we thought after week 2 or the fact that they've since played 2 of the top teams in the league and lost? As you said, the rankings are highly dependant on your record.  So perhaps if Miami would have played some weaker teams and won they would be considered a top 10 team now?

And yes it may be a bit skewed 5 weeks into the season, but it should get better as time goes on and we get a more realistic view of each team as the season plays out.