Dolphins Remaining Schedule

[Dave Gray]

This is your path to the playoffs.

8    Oct 31    MIA @ CIN  - Win.
9    Nov 07    MIA @ BAL - Loss.
10    Nov 14    TEN @ MIA - Win.  (But close)
11    Nov 18    CHI @ MIA - Win.
12    Nov 28    MIA @ OAK - Win.
13    Dec 05    CLE @ MIA - Win.
14    Dec 12    MIA @ NYJ - Loss.
15    Dec 19    BUF @ MIA - Win.
16    Dec 26    DET @ MIA - Win.
17    Jan 02    MIA @ NE - Loss.

That puts you at 10-6, which probably won't be enough.  From there, we will need to either steal a win against one of the three losses, and get some help with a rogue loss or two to grab a wildcard spot.

If everything plays out like I think it should, we will end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs.

[MikeO]

Cincy just threw for 400+ yards AT Atlanta who has a good defense. If they keep that rolling they might destroy our swiss cheese secondary next week. Not gonna chalk that up as a win.

[BigDaddyFin]

I actually think we can beat Baltimore and the Jets and the Patriots.  It'll be excruciatingly difficult but I believe it.

[dolfan13]

must win all games not against the 3 remaining elite teams (bal, nyj, ne), and will have to steal one against those others.

i think the best shot would be against baltimore, they didn't look all that impressive today.

[Frimp]

I doubt we get swept by the Jets AND Patsies.

[mecadonzilla]

Cincy just threw for 400+ yards AT Atlanta who has a good defense. If they keep that rolling they might destroy our swiss cheese secondary next week. Not gonna chalk that up as a win.

Atlanta's pass defense is one of the worst in the league if you consider yards allowed.  The Falcons get a lot of INTs, but give up lots of yards.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

we will end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs.

Even if the Dolphins go 11-5, playoffs are going to be hard to make given as right now the Dolphins aren't looking good on the tiebreakers. 

[Pappy13]

It's not over till it's over.  If I use my spreadsheet to determine strength of schedule from this point on which is based on how teams were ranked as of last week's Power Rankings by ESPN, Cincy, Houston and Tennessee have the 3 toughest schedules at 12.10, 13.30 and 13.33 respectively. Houston has 6 games against top 10 teams and Tennessee has 4 plus 3 more in the top half of the league.

Conversely Miami's remaining schedule is 16.80 which is far easier than it's been up to this point with 4 top ten teams but 5 in the bottom half of the league.  I can see Miami catching Houston and Tennessee in the standings.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City, the Jets and Indy are gonna be harder to catch and that alone could knock them out of the playoffs but all of those teams except Pittsburgh and Kansas City have tougher schedules than Miami so nothing is out of the question just yet.

Team                  8     9     10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    SoS
Cincinnati Bengals    16    1     5     32    2     6     1     30    24    4     12.10
Houston Texans        5     24    25    2     8     10    4     8     22    25    13.30
Tennessee Titans      24          16    14    9     25    5     9     13    5     13.33
Buffalo Bills         13    12    29    20    1     17    30    16    3     2     14.30
Cleveland Browns            3     2     25    31    16    32    20    4     1     14.89
Baltimore Ravens            16    7     31    19    1     9     6     30    20    15.44
Jacksonville Jaguars  26          9     30    11    8     28    5     14    9     15.56
Oakland Raiders       23    13          1     16    24    25    22    5     13    15.78
New England Patriots  17    30    1     5     29    2     12    15    32    16    15.90
Indianapolis Colts    9     10    20    3     24    26    8     25    28    8     16.10
New York Jets         15    29    30    9     20    3     16    1     12    32    16.70
Miami Dolphins        20    4     8     12    28    30    2     32    29    3     16.80
San Diego Chargers    8     9           22    5     28    13    27    20    22    17.11
Pittsburgh Steelers   6     20    3     28    32    4     20    2     31    30    17.60
Denver Broncos        27          13    24    21    13    18    28    9     24    19.67
Kansas City Chiefs    32    28    22    18    23    22    24    21    8     28    22.60

[Spider-Dan]

We still have opportunities to get tiebreakers against BAL and TEN.  Presuming that we actually win those, HOU is the biggest uncontrolled threat.

There's one other wildcard: the NYJ-BAL tiebreaker.  As in 2002, if we finish with the same record as the Jets (and they beat us in tiebreakers), but they lose to BAL in tiebreakers, we're done.

Of course, PIT still needs to play NYJ and NE before we can fully understand the tiebreaker dynamic.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I can see Miami catching Houston and Tennessee in the standings.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City, the Jets and Indy are gonna be harder to catch and that alone could knock them out of the playoffs but all of those teams except Pittsburgh and Kansas City have tougher schedules than Miami so nothing is out of the question just yet.

I would not worry about catching KC.  I am hard pressed to think of a playoff scenario in which the AFCW has a wild card slot and the Dolphins make the playoffs.

In the hunt for the 5 spots filled by the AFCE/AFCW/AFCN

Jets 5-1
Pitt 5-1
NE 5-1
Bal 5-2
Titans 5-2
Colts 4-2
Texans 4-2
Dolphins 3-3

At this point the Dolphins should probably be hoping for Pitt to win the AFCN  as catching Bal is a lot more feasible if the Dolphins can win the match up in two weeks. 

In the AFCE it would be easier for the Dolphins to catch the Pats (2-1 in the division) than the Jets (3-0 in the division).  Having the Jets beat the Pats Dec 6 would probably be in the Dolphins best interest, possibly setting it up with the Jets having the division and the week 17 game when the Dolphins come to Foxboro be a battle for which team gets the wildcard. 

In the AFCS the Dolphins have a chance to get the tiebreakers over the Titans.  Catching the Texans (3-0 in conf) will be harder than catching the Colts (2-2 in conf).  But the Dolphins are behind the 8 ball here being only 1-2 in Conf.

[masterfins]

I hereby declare the Miami vs Patriots game is a "Must Win" game!  Also, the game against Baltimore in two weeks is potential very essential to making the playoffs.

[Fau Teixeira]

If the dolphins win out .. they make the playoffs .. that's the end of that .. so we know what to do .. win out

[Dolarltexas]

Frankly, I'd rather have them lose out and get some good draft picks then have them come up just short of the playoffs and get nothing but bad draft picks and a more difficult schedule.   Also, I can't see them going any better than 8-8--especially with this gutless, stupid offense. 

[Brian Fein]

I agree with Dave.  Considering the division, assuming the Jets and Pats continue how they have been, there's little chance that BOTH wild cards will come out of the East.  That would mean that:
Baltimore, Houtson/Indy, KC/SD
would all miss the playoffs.  Depending, naturally on who wins the other divisions...
Realistically, just based on the remaining schedule, I see the Pats/Jets and Ravens getting the 2 AFC wild card spots.

Conversely, I think there will be a sub-500 team qualifying for postseason from the NFC this season.

Pitiful.  The NFC is embarrassing.

[mecadonzilla]

Is it really a bad thing if the Fins miss out on the playoffs?  This is a team who had no real aspiration of winning it all anyway.  I'd rather them take their lumps this year, learn from the mistakes, have a good draft, and go for it all next year.

It would be awesome if the Dolphins made the playoffs this year, and I still think it's possible.  There's a butt load of games to be played, and the games almost never go as analysts predict.  But there's a lot more to be gained by missing out on the post season and getting a better draft pick.  If the Fins were serious contenders entering the season, I'd say different, but they just areren't.  I think they're headed in the right direction, they just need one more good draft to really make a difference in the AFC.  (preferably on the offensive side)

I'd like an offensive coordinator change, too, while we're at it.  But that will take care of itself organically.