Maybe it's a mistake to defer

[Pappy13]

No it doesn't.  I can see you're still not convinced, so let's dig a little deeper.  Let's look at Miami's first drive in those games where Miami deferred.

Here's a shocker.  Henne has actually scored points (not just got in FG range, but scored points) on 6 of 7 first drives in games where we kicked off first. 3 TD's and 3 FG's.  A full 85.7 % success rate on his first drive.  Had we not already been down a FG or TD in those games, it may have made a difference.

Oh yeah that leaves 2 games.  In the 8th game the Titans fumbled the ball and Miami recovered and kicked a FG and in the 9th game the Steelers fumbled the Dolphins opening kickoff and Miami kicked a FG in that game as well, but I didn't think it's fair to credit Henne with a FG drive seeing as they got the ball already in FG range.

Hope that clears it up for you.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^^ So 7 out of 9 when the Dolphins start the 3nd Quarter by receiving the ball they score on that drive.  And 0 out 3 times in which they start the 1st quarter by receiving the ball they don't.  And so you want the offense to have the ball less at the start of the second half when they have 77.8% success rate, and more often at the start of the 1st half when they have a 0% success rate.  Seems like it would be better for the offense to have the ball more at the start of the second half when they actually do something with it.

Do you have the success rate for the Dolphins during the 2nd half for the other three games?

[Pappy13]

^^^^ So 7 out of 9 when the Dolphins start the 3nd Quarter by receiving the ball they score on that drive.

No, I was talking about the first time Miami touched the ball in a game and it's actually 8 of 9 when they kick-off first.  However you have to remember that in 6 of those 9 games, Miami was already down either a FG or TD so in effect Miami was already playing catch up.

Miami is 4 out of 9 to start the 3rd quarter when we received the ball first.  2 TD's and 2 FG's.  0 for 3 in the in the 3rd quarter when they have kicked off to start the 3rd quarter for a total of 4 out of 12 first posessions in the 2nd half.

Miami punted twice on their 1st posession of the 2nd half when they kicked off first and against your Patriots they gave up a TD return on the kickoff and then got a punt blocked for another TD.  I guess in general you could say that bad things happen to the Dolphins anytime they kick off.  That being the case, I would choose to RECEIVE to start the game and pray like hell my special teams can make a tackle to start the 3rd quarter.

[Spider-Dan]

So if I understand you correctly, Pappy, the offense does better on their first drive when they DON'T get the ball first than when they do.  This is an argument in your favor...?

I presume you have no interest whatsoever in addressing the factual points that Belichick mentioned (extra rest for the defense after the half instead of before the game, less crowd noise).  Saying, "your team is 10-2 so do what works, but when your team is 6-6 you need to shake things up," is not a response.  If anything, all that it says is that Sparano should be copying more of Belichick's tactics, not less.

[Pappy13]

So if I understand you correctly, Pappy, the offense does better on their first drive when they DON'T get the ball first than when they do.  This is an argument in your favor...?

That's correct and yes I do believe it's an argument in my favor because we would be taking a lead as opposed to playing catch-up.  It has less to do with trusting the offense and more to do with not trusting the defense who have been absolutely HORRIBLE.  I'd rather put my offense on the field and give us a chance to take a lead than put my defense on the field and pretty much guarantee we will be playing from behind the first time my offense steps on the field.

I presume you have no interest whatsoever in addressing the factual points that Belichick mentioned (extra rest for the defense after the half instead of before the game, less crowd noise).

If my defense is still gassed after 20 minutes in the locker room at half time or if my offense has problems with crowd noise just after halftime you got bigger problems than a coin flip is gonna fix.

Honestly I don't think it's a decision that is gonna win or lose you the game.  All I'm suggesting is that it wouldn't hurt to try to change things up a bit.  Sparano decided to bench Henne and put in Pennington in the hopes that it would give his offense "a spark".  In my opinion that was FAR more disruptive than choosing to receive instead of kickoff, but I guess since BB says it's the right thing to do than far be it for me to question it.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

One correction: the problem is not the noise at the start of the 3rd.  It is the noise at the very start of the game. 

But many games are won or lost on the basis of wearing out an opposing teams defense.  Anything that give you a slight edge or hurts the other team is important.  Even wearing white as a home team in the September sun in So. Fla.  or having the home teams bench in the shade and the opposing teams in the sun. 

You seem to prefer to receive because you feel the Dolphins can't recover from an 0-7 deficit because it changes the dynamics of the game. 

If a 7 point deficit with 50 mins left on the game clock is an insurmountable obstacle, then you have significantly bigger problems than a coin flip is gonna fix.

Also one other thing he mentioned (I just remembered) is if you defer you almost always have the wind at your back for the 1st and 4th quarters.  Which can be better than 2nd and 3rd cause the 1st gets you off to a good start and the 4th can be when the game is won or lost.       

If my defense is still gassed after 20 minutes in the locker room at half time or if my offense has problems with crowd noise just after halftime you got bigger problems than a coin flip is gonna fix.

[Pappy13]

Anything that give you a slight edge or hurts the other team is important.

But not all edges are created equal.  I believe getting a lead in a game AND making the opponent play catch-up are more important than giving my defense a couple extra minutes of rest after they just had 20 minutes of rest and giving my offense the ball with a little less crowd noise.

By the way crowd noise is only an issue for your offense when you are playing away.  Miami is 5-1 this year when playing away.  Hasn't seemed to have hurt them too much this year, I think I'll risk it.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

But not all edges are created equal.  I believe getting a lead in a game AND making the opponent play catch-up are more important than giving my defense a couple extra minutes of rest after they just had 20 minutes of rest and giving my offense the ball with a little less crowd noise.

You are right not all edges are equal. 

No good or even mediocre NFL team has ever lost a game cause they panicked down by 7 points in the first quarter.  Maybe a couple of utterly crappy ones have.  Plenty of good, great or even elite teams have lost a game in the 4th because their defense was worn out and didn’t get enough rest during the game. 

By the way crowd noise is only an issue for your offense when you are playing away. 

Crowd noise is an issue both places. 

At home by deferring you force the other team to be on offense at the very start of the game, in which the crowd is at its craziest and loudest.  It also lets the home crowd start out loud setting a tone for the entire game.  Particularly if you make a 3 and out. And you deny the other teams offense the opportunity to play in the library like atmosphere of the start of the 3rd quarter. 

Away – the crowd must start the game quiet.  (the other team is on offense).  It is harder for them to now get them back into a frenzy, particularly if you made a big stop on defense.  A three and out can take the home field advantage away for all or most of the game. 

[Pappy13]

You are right not all edges are equal.

Very well.  We agree to disagree.

Perhaps you, BB and Sparano are right.  Miami HAS lost all 3 games in which they received the kick to start the game and are 6-3 in games in which they did not.  Personally I don't think that is what caused Miami to lose,  but maybe I'm underestimating the importance of deferring.  Perhaps it's this fact alone that cost us the game.  Once our coaches and players saw that we would have to receive they knew then and there, there was no way to win the game.  I sure hope we don't lose any more coin flips.

Here I was thinking that Thigpen looking like a deer in the headlights in Chicago, the special teams giving up 14 points to start the 2nd half against New England and Henne's 3 INT's, one that was returned to the 2 yard line allowing Cleveland to kneel down for 2 plays before kicking the game winning FG with no time left on the clock had something to do with it.  Silly me.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^ It is a small edge.  A very small one.  A good team should beat a weaker team regardless of who starts with the ball.  The kind of edge that might affect one game every few years league wide. But in a 16 game season a small edge that means you win one game you would have otherwise tied or tie one game you would have otherwise lost, can be the difference between the playoffs or not.

As for the Dolphins needing to win the remaining coin tosses.  The coin has a better chance at landing on its side than the Dolphins have of making the playoffs.

[Pappy13]

^^ Oh I'm not hoping that we don't lose a coin toss so that we'll have a chance at the playoffs, I just want to see Miami beat a couple of playoff teams in meaningless games so that their fans will quit being so cocky. 

[MikeO]

The logic 99.9% of NFL coaches use is you want your BEST unit on the field first. So if you win the toss, put your best unit on the field first. The Jets defense has been god awful this year. They aren't even good really. It's all hype and reputation off of last year when they were great.

I think it took Rex 3 months but he finally sees this now and while he won't admit his defense stinks, he will at least put his offense on the field first since the offense is a better unit than the defense.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The logic 99.9% of NFL coaches use

99.9%?  You do realize with only 32 of them, each one represents more than 3%.  I have laid out BB's earlier and that is not his approach.  I suspect you are wrong regarding quite a few others and the majority of them use the Spider-Dan approach.  Namely, "what does the Patriots, Steelers, Colts or Saints do?  I am gonna do whatever they do"   

[Spider-Dan]

To clarify, that's not my approach.

I agree with Belichick's logic in this case and many others (including the 4th down vs. Indy last year) because he makes decisions based on grounded logic, and unlike most other coaches, he has no fear of making the mathematically sound choice without having to worry about what the mindless talking heads say afterward; his job is secure.

I don't agree with Belichick because he's winning; I agree with him because he's right, which usually leads to winning.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Jets won the coin toss.  Elected to receive.  Dolphins started on defense. 

Dolphins won.