Reality check for Miami's Stephen Ross

[Spider-Dan]

This is the time to get this thing right.  Unfortunately, the owners will probably cave because they don't want to lose the season but it would be a mistake.  If they do, the cost will continue to be passed on to the consumer (US!!!).

You make it sound as if a scenario in which the players cave would result in the savings being passed on to us, instead of simply enlarging the bank accounts of the owners.

I encourage you to look at the previous NBA and NHL lockouts (in which the owners completely and utterly won) to see how well that works out.

[Sunstroke]

You make it sound as if a scenario in which the players cave would result in the savings being passed on to us, instead of simply enlarging the bank accounts of the owners.

I encourage you to look at the previous NBA and NHL lockouts (in which the owners completely and utterly won) to see how well that works out.

Glad someone pointed this out...

There really isn't an outcome possible for this situation that has the fans saving any money as a result. If the players win, the players get more money. If the owners win...the owners get more money. The fans only win when the strike ends, and we certainly aren't going to see any lowering of ticket prices or concession prices (or parking, or merchandising, et al) as a result of this work stoppage.

[Pappy13]

A new CBA agreement is not necessarily a win by either side. It's a compromise on both sides. That's what we should all be hoping for.

[Doc-phin]

You make it sound as if a scenario in which the players cave would result in the savings being passed on to us, instead of simply enlarging the bank accounts of the owners.

I encourage you to look at the previous NBA and NHL lockouts (in which the owners completely and utterly won) to see how well that works out.

From what I understand most NBA owners aren't doing very good and several of them are losing money.  Not sure about the NHL, but I am pretty sure they aren't exactly rolling in it either.  There are always exceptions.  Either way, hockey and NBA expenses for fans have been fairly flat in comparison to ticket prices for the NFL.

The owners know that there is a point at which the fans won't be able to justify the cost of ticket prices.  Are we there yet?  There are some signs that say we are getting close to that point.  So yes, I do think that lowering ownership cost will result in slower escalation in ticket prices (or at least PSLs) and in some cases could allow discounted rates.  More importantly, the owners won't be losing money which allows them to reinvest in their product (good for us).

BTW - The players don't have to cave much.  They just won't be getting more than (or quite as much as) the last CBA.  A 10% raise in player's salary each year can't be sustained forever; not when player salary if near 50% of your budget.  The league doesn't have an infinite ability to increase revenue to meet all of these cost increases (salaries, stadiums, maintenance, etc.).  The writing is on the wall.  The revenue increases the NFL has seen over the past 10 years is going to slow down.  The owners know this and the players' views are short sighted.

[MikeO]

Horrible article.  The owners are imposing a lockout to avoid collapse of the entire league.  

GIVE ME A BREAK!! Collapse of the entire league. They have never had bigger TV deals, bigger TV ratings, higher merchandise sales, the vast majority of these owners have PSL's and are just abusing the fans out of their money. And the league is trying to avoid collpase??  If the league is this bad now how did it ever survive all of these years??

STOP Drinking the Owners Kool-Aid....seriously!!


P.S...league wide season tickets sales for 2011 (with this lockout) are ahead of the 2010 pace. Yeah the league is really hurting 

[MikeO]

I encourage you to look at the previous NBA and NHL lockouts (in which the owners completely and utterly won) to see how well that works out.

The NBA owners won and you won't see the 2012 NBA season start till next February.....MAYBE!!!! Because they are all flat broke because they are bad business people and cant market a sport to save their lives.

[MikeO]

 The revenue increases the NFL has seen over the past 10 years is going to slow down.  The owners know this and the players' views are short sighted.

Actually NO. Revenues are going to grow at a faster rate in the coming years with more games overseas, a longer season, more if not all games being available online or on cell phones. This is all going to be "NEW MONEY" coming into the league. The money is about to come pouring in at a record level, and the Owners felt they missed out on the "last wave of revenue" under Tags who cut a bad deal in their minds. So that is why they are drawing the line in the sand NOW and having this fight NOW to make sure they get the most $$$ possible in the next big wave of money about to come their way.

No NFL franchise is going broke, anyone or any team claiming that is a liar. And if its so bad being an NFL owner how come a bunch of these guys aren't unloading their teams? And how come when one does come for sale every few years there is a line a mile long of people who want to buy it!!! Because its sure money!! That's why!

[bsmooth]

The NBA owners won and you won't see the 2012 NBA season start till next February.....MAYBE!!!! Because they are all flat broke because they are bad business people and cant market a sport to save their lives.

Yes the owners won the last showdown and the NBA still has the highest paid athletes on average than any other sport.

[Spider-Dan]

Yes the owners won the last showdown and the NBA still has the highest paid athletes on average than any other sport.

NBA active roster: 15 players
NHL active roster: 23 players
MLB active roster: 25-40 players
NFL active roster: 53 players

The math seems fairly straightforward.  Unless the NFL brings in over 3.5x as much revenue as the NBA (in 1/5th of the games, mind you), NBA players should make more money.

[Doc-phin]

GIVE ME A BREAK!! Collapse of the entire league. They have never had bigger TV deals, bigger TV ratings, higher merchandise sales, the vast majority of these owners have PSL's and are just abusing the fans out of their money. And the league is trying to avoid collapse??  If the league is this bad now how did it ever survive all of these years??

STOP Drinking the Owners Kool-Aid....seriously!!


P.S...league wide season tickets sales for 2011 (with this lockout) are ahead of the 2010 pace. Yeah the league is really hurting 

Not drinking cool aid.  When I say avoiding collapse, I mean in the future and not because of the way it is now.  The league is great now, although I believe they are approaching a sealing, and it is because of the advantages of a CBA.

If any player can go to any team at any time outside their contract and their is no draft, then teams like Dallas, Pittsburg, New England (for a while) and maybe a few select teams that are really willing to spend like Washington will be your Champions yearly (forever).  Football is too expensive for losers (with no shot at being winners) to hold on.  Even with profit sharing, viewership/attendance would decrease due to lack of year to year competitiveness.  Overall the league would start moving backward (financially and otherwise).  I am sure there would be a breaking point to which the league would try to reinvent itself to get back to its "glory days" (which is now).

If I am wrong, why would the league bother having a CBA in the first place.  The CBA is to keep spending in check and allow even the worst teams to have a shot from year to year without breaking antitrust laws.  In my opinion (and not just mine) a CBA is highly necessary for the NFL.

Also...  I am not sold on the ticket sales statement.  There are a few articles floating around out there, but I haven't seen anything that I can view as solid evidence and have heard more reports of poor sales than better sales.  Here is a quick article that illustrates my point.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2011/6/1/2200351/is-nfl-really-ahead-of-last-years-pace-for-season-ticket-sales

Even if it were true, people are mostly assuming that football will be back as usual next year.  I don't see why someone wouldn't buy tickets for next year if they are "money back guaranteed".  But ticket sales have been dropping over the last few seasons, and this year is projected to be the 3rd year in a row of declining sales.

We do know that draft viewership was down about 25%, which is a more easily traceable number.  And we have also seen an increase in blackouts for games over the last few seasons.  Some markets have been hit worse than others (of course), but even New York struggled with selling its PSLs.
 

[Phishfan]

We do know that draft viewership was down about 25%, which is a more easily traceable number.   

This is the one statement I have to disagree with. I assume you are saying TV viewership of the draft was easier to track that ticket sales? No way, the ticket sales are a hard concrete number. TV vieweraship is almost as arbitrary as radio statistics if you ask me. Even if they hard tracked each cable box in each house, how would they account for someone like me that can easily catch a few minutes of five different shows in an hour?

[Doc-phin]

This is the one statement I have to disagree with. I assume you are saying TV viewership of the draft was easier to track that ticket sales? No way, the ticket sales are a hard concrete number. TV vieweraship is almost as arbitrary as radio statistics if you ask me. Even if they hard tracked each cable box in each house, how would they account for someone like me that can easily catch a few minutes of five different shows in an hour?

Who reports ticket sales?  The owners?  At what point in the year?  What is the benefit in them claiming ticket sales are slow?  There is definately benefit in claiming they are selling fast as it creates urgency for the consumer to buy.

I am not going to argue about TV viewership, but they have gotten much better at tracking viewership over the years.  And if you watched a few minutes of 5 different shows this year, you probably did it last year.  It is trend that matters and trend was significantly down.

[Phishfan]

^^^ I simply said the actual number of sales is a concrete number and could be tracked easier than the arbitrary estimation they put on TV viewership. That was all.Of course the sales number could be fudged, but it could definitely be tracked easier than TV numbers. One is a hard number the other is an estimation. Which one is easily more traceable?

[Doc-phin]

^^^ I simply said the actual number of sales is a concrete number and could be tracked easier than the arbitrary estimation they put on TV viewership. That was all.Of course the sales number could be fudged, but it could definitely be tracked easier than TV numbers. One is a hard number the other is an estimation. Which one is easily more traceable?

Gotcha, I agree.  In the end, I think ticket sales reports will be accurate (more accurate than a viewership rating).  But while sales are in progress, I don't trust the reports.  So yes, I agree that tickets should be easier to track than viewership.

[bsmooth]

NBA active roster: 15 players
NHL active roster: 23 players
MLB active roster: 25-40 players
NFL active roster: 53 players

The math seems fairly straightforward.  Unless the NFL brings in over 3.5x as much revenue as the NBA (in 1/5th of the games, mind you), NBA players should make more money.

And yet with their highest numbers in years there is between 17-22 teams that are in financial trouble and losing money.
Also while the NBA plays more games, the players face less chance of a career ending injury on any given game day. They are grossly overpaid for what they do. This is why I am expecting a long lockout in the NBA vs the NFL