Strength of Schedule

[Fins4ever]

I have been saying for a couple of years now that the parity in the NFL has never been greater. Maybe it is because I belong to a fantasy football pool and really notice the upsets because more often than not, I lose points.

IMO, there is no doubt that the salary cap and draft process is doing an excellent job in keeping things equal. If I were a HC, I would not overlook any team.

It seems to me, predicting a winner comes down to how the teams "match up" more than the W-L record. I usually watch the CBS pre-game with Cowher, Marino, Sharpe, Esiason and others. Believe it or not, Boomer is excellent in picking upsets by using "the match-up technique. Check him out. Sometimes he is the only guy to pick the winner.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_NFL_Today

[Pappy13]

I don't know why a team with a losing record would overlook anyone.

I don't know why a team with a winning record would overlook anyone.

[Pappy13]

While Chicago is 7-1 they have played a weak schedule up to now and play a much tougher schedule in the 2nd half of the year. Don't expect a repeat 7-1 in the last half of the year from them, but those of you hoping for Detroit or Minnesota to catch them, you can probably forget about it as both of their 2nd half schedules are brutal. Green bay has a shot at catching Chicago if they stumble.

Denver by contrast has played a relatively tough schedule up to now, but it gets much easier for them. Their 5-3 first half could easily be followed up with a 7-1 2nd half and I would look for them to win division easily.

Miami's schedule gets a little easier, but not much. Still a 5-3 record and potential playoff birth in the 2nd half is not out of the question, but don't sleep on the Jets. They have played a tough 1st half schedule that gets much easier now, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 6-2 in the 2nd half and end up 9-7 as well if they are actually better than their record indicates.

Dallas might also be a sleeper team in the 2nd half of the year.


TM    1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  W L   1-9  10-17  DIFF
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  - -  ----- ----- ------
MIN  29 -32   1  18  25 -21  11 -26 -13  14       3   6   3  24   2   6  5 4  19.56  8.29 -11.27
CHI  32  -5  23  12  30      19  29  27   2   4  16  12  16   6  20  14  7 1  22.13 11.25 -10.88
DET  28  -2 -26 -21      11  -6  11  31  16   6   2  11   6  20   1   3  4 4  17.00  8.13  -8.88
NO  -24 -23 -28  -7  11      22 -12  18   1  26   4   1   5  13  18  29  3 5  18.13 12.13  -6.00
SD   26  22  -3  26 -28 -17     -30  32  13   8   7  23  10  29  25  26  4 4  23.00 17.63  -5.38
HOU  27  29  10  24  23 -12   4      28   3  31  14  27   9  11  16  11  7 1  19.63 15.25  -4.38
CIN  -6  31  20  30 -26 -32 -14      -9   5  32  26  17  18  21  10   7  3 5  21.00 17.00  -4.00
GB   -4   8 -17  28 -31   1  20  31  16      14   5  16  14   3  27  16  6 3  17.33 13.57  -3.76
TB   22  -7 -15 -22      30 -24   9  24  17  29   1   8  21  22  24   1  4 4  19.13 15.38  -3.75
IND  -9  28 -31       8 -25  30  25  12  31   9  28  14  27   2  32   2  5 3  21.00 18.13  -2.88
BAL  16 -12   5  32  27  13  -2      29  26  10  17  10  19   8   5  23  6 2  17.00 14.75  -2.25
ARI  23   1   7  29 -19 -27 -10  -4  -6       1  24  25  12  14   3   4  4 5  14.00 11.86  -2.14
NYG -14  21  19  -9  32   3  15  15 -10  23       6  19  22   1   7  21  6 3  15.33 14.14  -1.19
NE   18 -20  -6  19  13 -16  23  21      28  11  25  15   2   4  31  15  5 3  17.00 16.38  -0.63
KC  -10 -24  24 -13  -3 -23     -28 -20  10  23   8  29  30  26  11   8  1 7  18.13 18.13   0.00
ATL  17   9  11  23  18  29      13  14  22  20  13  22  29   5  14  13  8 0  16.75 17.25   0.50
JAC  30  -4  27 -15  -9     -29  -7 -17  11   2  27  28  25  15   9  27  2 6  17.25 18.00   0.75
OAK -15 -30   9 -14      -2  31  32 -21   7  22  23  30   8  32  29  17  3 5  19.25 21.00   1.75
SF    1  13 -29  17  21  -7   9  14      24   3  22  24  15   9  12  20  6 2  13.88 16.13   2.25
BUF -21  19  32  -8  -4   9 -27      -3   9  15  11  31  24  12  15  25  3 5  15.38 17.75   2.38
SEA -23  10   4 -25  24   5  -5 -19  11  25      15   3  20  28   4  24  5 4  14.00 17.00   3.00
WAS  11 -27 -16  20  -2   8  -3 -10 -30      21  18   5   7  30  21  18  3 6  14.11 17.14   3.03
MIA  -5  25 -18  -5  12  18      24 -15  27  28  12   9   4  31  28   9  4 4  15.25 18.50   3.25
PHI  31   3 -14   6 -16 -20      -1 -26  18  19  29  18  13  23  19   5  3 5  14.63 18.00   3.38
PIT -13  17 -30       7 -28  21  18   2  32   7  30   7  17  18  23  30  5 3  17.00 20.50   3.50
CLE  -7 -18 -22  -3 -10  15 -26  17  -7      18  10  26  32  19   8  10  2 7  13.89 17.57   3.68
CAR -25  16  -8  -2 -17     -18  -5  19   8  13  21  32   1  17  26  22  2 6  13.75 17.50   3.75
STL -12  15 -12  10   5 -19  -8  -8       4  25  20   4  28  16  13  12  3 5  11.13 15.25   4.13
TEN  -2 -14  13  -1 -14  10  25 -23  -5  15      31   2  11  25   6  31  3 6  11.89 17.29   5.40
NYJ  19 -11  25  -4  -1  22  -7 -16      12  24   9  20  31  27  17  28  3 5  13.13 21.00   7.88
DAL   3 -26 -21  11      -4  28  -2  -1  21  30  19  21  23  10  22  19  3 5  12.00 20.63   8.63
DEN   8  -6  -2  27  -6  14      20  22  29  17  32  13  26   7  30  32  5 3  13.13 23.25  10.13

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I don't know why a team with a winning record would overlook anyone.

Not on purpose.  But it happens, particularly if the following game is big.

E.g. Team is 8-2 playing a team 2-8 this week and then the following week will be playing a team that is 9-1, it is human nature to dismiss the 2-8 team and start thinking about the 9-1 team. 

However if you are 2-8 it is a bit sillier to be overconfident.

[Pappy13]

Not on purpose.  But it happens, particularly if the following game is big.

E.g. Team is 8-2 playing a team 2-8 this week and then the following week will be playing a team that is 9-1, it is human nature to dismiss the 2-8 team and start thinking about the 9-1 team. 

However if you are 2-8 it is a bit sillier to be overconfident.

So the silliness factor depends on the circumstances, ergo my remark that I hoped a 2-3 Miami wouldn't overlook a 3-2 St. Louis.

[Fins4ever]

They are a different team without Murray.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Pappy - Being you seem to be real interested in SOS you might want to check out this website. 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html

They present the data differently than you.  Not really sure if they have the same results or different than yours.  (I am not particularly big on analysis of SOS, I like to check out their playoff data)

[Pappy13]

They present the data differently than you.  Not really sure if they have the same results or different than yours.  (I am not particularly big on analysis of SOS, I like to check out their playoff data)

They are going to have different results from mine because they are using a completely different set of metrics to determine strength of schedule, they are using strictly win/loss records.

In my opinion, there is a fundamental problem with using strictly win/loss records to determine strength of schedule because it doesn't take into account the SoS of the teams they are playing. How can you simply look at the record of a team and determine if they present a tough opponent? You can't. You must make an objective look at that the team as a whole including WHO they have played along with their record. This is why I use ESPN's rankings to determine whether or not an opponent makes for a tough game. ESPN is taking an objective look at each team, not simply considering win/loss records although that does play into it for sure.

In my opinion, my system is a more comprehensive look at SoS. That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^ Personally I think SOS is overrated in the salary cap era of NFL football.  So I don't put much into it. 

You must make an objective look at that the team as a whole including WHO they have played along with their record. This is why I use ESPN's rankings to determine whether or not an opponent makes for a tough game. ESPN is taking an objective look at each team,

However, this part is wrong.  ESPN takes a subjective look at each team.  Win/loss, yards gained on offense, turn over diff are examples of OBJECTIVE MEASUREMENTS.  The AP poll, ESPN poll, etc are all subjective. 

[Pappy13]

^^^ Personally I think SOS is overrated in the salary cap era of NFL football.

Well it is only 1 factor, there are dozens if not hundreds of factors that go into determining the outcome of a game. It's only overrated if you put more emphasis on it than say all the other factors put together.

However, this part is wrong.  ESPN takes a subjective look at each team.  Win/loss, yards gained on offense, turn over diff are examples of OBJECTIVE MEASUREMENTS.  The AP poll, ESPN poll, etc are all subjective. 

Oops, subjective.

[Pappy13]

Oh and by the way, Tennessee has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL up to week 9. They *might* be better than their record indicates...sure wish I would have noticed this before Sunday. LOL

[Pappy13]

While Chicago is 7-1 they have played a weak schedule up to now and play a much tougher schedule in the 2nd half of the year. Don't expect a repeat 7-1 in the last half of the year from them, but those of you hoping for Detroit or Minnesota to catch them, you can probably forget about it as both of their 2nd half schedules are brutal. Green bay has a shot at catching Chicago if they stumble.

Check. (Except for the part about Minnesota catching them.) Chicago is 1-5 in the 2nd half.

Denver by contrast has played a relatively tough schedule up to now, but it gets much easier for them. Their 5-3 first half could easily be followed up with a 7-1 2nd half and I would look for them to win division easily.

Check (6-0 in the second half so far)

Dallas might also be a sleeper team in the 2nd half of the year.

Check. 5-1 in their last 6.

...but don't sleep on the Jets. They have played a tough 1st half schedule that gets much easier now, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 6-2 in the 2nd half and end up 9-7 as well if they are actually better than their record indicates.

Check. They'll have to beat Tenn, SD and Buf, but a 6-2 second half if still possible.

Still think SoS is bunk?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Still think SoS is bunk?

Bunk? -- no.

Overrated by one particular poster that resembles a Dolphin's teddy bear? -- yes. 

[Pappy13]

  HEY! Where IS my teddy bear? Did the avatars get lost? I just noticed it's missing.