Phins trying to get Tebow?

[Pats2006]

Tebow would be a great face for the franchise.  Yes.
He would be extremely marketable down here.  Yes.

But, he isn't a good enough football player to lead our team.

I think he would work in Miami.. well when you guys had williams and brown. He's a perfect wildcat QB.. good running and throwing no more the 15 yard passes. But I agree he's a bust.

[Brian Fein]

Using a 1st round pick on a QB doesn't guarantee success.  It guarantees more pain in the (highly likely) event that he's a bust.

Just ask the Chargers and Ryan Leaf.

Or ask Drew Brees (Rd 2) or Tom Brady (Rd 6) if there is any correlation between draft slot and success.

[MikeO]

Using a 1st round pick on a QB doesn't guarantee success.  It guarantees more pain in the (highly likely) event that he's a bust.

Just ask the Chargers and Ryan Leaf.

Or ask Drew Brees (Rd 2) or Tom Brady (Rd 6) if there is any correlation between draft slot and success.

If you are hoping to land the next Tom Brady in Rd 6, good luck. Look at the current TOP QB's in the NFL today and tell me what they have in common......Peyton, Rivers, Big Ben, Rodgers, Eli, Vick, Ryan, Cutler, Flacco, ...etc ROUND 1 PICKS!

To try and do it another way, is like trying to win the lottery. Good friggin luck! The blueprint is out there, find a QB in Rd 1 you like, and do whatever it takes to get him. And if one falls in your lap (like Rodgers did in GB), never pass him up!!!

Of course taking a QB in Rd 1 is no guarntee. Nothing is. But if you have a good scouting dept, a good GM and coach.....you do your homework and find your guy. You gotta have some balls to win in this league. Can't run around scared affraid to take a QB in Rd 1 cause he MIGHT be a bust!!

[Brian Fein]

There are just as many good QB's taken in rounds 2-7, and even more BAD QB's taken in round 1. 

JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown....

All first round picks.

And all those teams were terrible for years after wasting that first round pick on a highly scouted yet underperforming QB.

[MikeO]

There are just as many good QB's taken in rounds 2-7, and even more BAD QB's taken in round 1. 

JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown....

All first round picks.

And all those teams were terrible for years after wasting that first round pick on a highly scouted yet underperforming QB.

So the Lions, Browns, Raiders, Bengals, Bills and Redskins (all TERRIBLE franchises) made bad picks in Rd 1 when it came to QB's. SHOCKING!!! And the good teams made GOOD picks in Rd 1!!!

Stop the presses, you are making headlines here!!

Thats why you hire a good GM and hire good scouts and let them do their homework and make the pick!! It's really not that complicated of a scenerio. Lots of teams do it.

[Spider-Dan]

There are just as many good QB's taken in rounds 2-7, and even more BAD QB's taken in round 1.

No, there aren't "just as many."  Not even close.

Let's look at the top 33 QBs in the league according to ESPN's "Total Quarterback Rating" stat.  (The details of the stat itself aren't really important, as a clear trend emerges.)  I have bolded all QBs taken in the first round.

1    2010    Tom Brady    NE    607    76.0
2    2010    Peyton Manning    IND    779    69.5
3    2010    Matt Ryan    ATL    709    68.6
4    2010    Aaron Rodgers    GB    627    67.9
5    2010    Michael Vick    PHI    547    66.6
6    2010    Drew Brees    NO    760    65.9
7    2010    Eli Manning    NYG    654    64.3
8    2010    Josh Freeman    TB    626    63.5
9    2010    Philip Rivers    SD    667    63.2
10    2010    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    500    59.8
11    2010    Tony Romo    DAL    251    58.1
12    2010    Joe Flacco    BAL    647    58.1
13    2010    Matt Schaub    HOU    678    57.8
14    2010    David Garrard    JAC    510    57.3
15    2010    Kerry Collins    TEN    342    56.0
16    2010    Matt Cassel    KC    566    51.2
17    2010    Ryan Fitzpatrick    BUF    551    48.7
18    2010    Mark Sanchez    NYJ    619    47.4
19    2010    Carson Palmer    CIN    720    46.7
20    2010    Colt McCoy    CLE    290    46.6
21    2010    Kyle Orton    DEN    612    46.6
22    2010    Jon Kitna    DAL    409    46.1
23    2010    Shaun Hill    DET    499    44.8
24    2010    Jason Campbell    OAK    479    43.8
25    2010    Jay Cutler    CHI    596    42.6
26    2010    Matt Hasselbeck    SEA    547    42.4
27    2010    Chad Henne    MIA    604    41.4
28    2010    Donovan McNabb    WAS    596    41.0
29    2010    Sam Bradford    STL    732    41.0
30    2010    Alex Smith    SF    426    40.0
31    2010    Derek Anderson    ARI    387    35.9
32    2010    Brett Favre    MIN    459    25.8
33    2010    Jimmy Clausen    CAR    397    11.7

Of the top ten QBs, eight were taken in the first-round.  That's not a coincidence, nor a fluke.

Now, if you want to argue that picking a first-round QB doesn't guarantee anything, or even that first round QBs are more likely to fail than succeed, that's fine.  But first-rounders are far more likely to succeed than QBs taken in later rounds.  It's not even close.

[tepop84]

There are just as many good QB's taken in rounds 2-7, and even more BAD QB's taken in round 1. 

JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown....

All first round picks.

And all those teams were terrible for years after wasting that first round pick on a highly scouted yet underperforming QB.

Most of those teams were terrible for years before drafting the qbs.  And i believe a couple of those teams went to the super bowl within a couple years of drafting those players. The titans made the playoffs 2 out of vy's first three years. AZ went to the super bowl a couple years after leinart was drafted. And leftwich was such a bust? they went 5-11, 9-7, 12-4 his first three years. And then you list qbs who were drafted to the same team. 

[fyo]

So the Lions, Browns, Raiders, Bengals, Bills and Redskins (all TERRIBLE franchises) made bad picks in Rd 1 when it came to QB's. SHOCKING!!! And the good teams made GOOD picks in Rd 1!!!

More likely, the good franchises were able to provide the surroundings needed for a quarterback to be a success. A bad team could pick the best quarterback out there and completely ruin him. The problem in that context is that we are a bad team. We don't bring along our quarterback prospects well, for whatever reason. Whether that's throwing them under the bus after a few games on a team that's already given up, poor coaching, game-planning, protection, whatever. Until we fix that, we're not going to have a good, young quarterback.

[Brian Fein]

More likely, the good franchises were able to provide the surroundings needed for a quarterback to be a success. A bad team could pick the best quarterback out there and completely ruin him.

Bingo!
 
Picking a QB in the first round does NOT mean he will be a superstar.  You have to have a team around him. 

Look at the top 10 or 12 guys on Spider-Dan's list.  Know what they all have in common?  Surroundings.

[jtex316]

As a professional analyst with a mathematics background, I would just like to point out how extremely insightful and ingenious Spider Dan's previous statement was:

The details of the stat itself aren't really important, as a clear trend emerges

Very excellent sir!

[MikeO]

Bingo!
 
Picking a QB in the first round does NOT mean he will be a superstar.  You have to have a team around him. 

Look at the top 10 or 12 guys on Spider-Dan's list.  Know what they all have in common?  Surroundings.

Good QB's make the players around them better. Take Peyton Manning off the Colts and they are lucky to win 3 games with that squad.

Put Peyton on the Fins, Bills, or some other bottom tier team and they are in the playoffs.

[Sunstroke]

Good QB's make the players around them better. Take Peyton Manning off the Colts and they are lucky to win 3 games with that squad.

Put Peyton on the Fins, Bills, or some other bottom tier team and they are in the playoffs.

If you changed "good" in that example to "great," I'd buy it a bit more. The example you used (Manning), you could even swap out good for "arguably the greatest QB to ever play the game."

Good QBs don't make players around them better, but great ones do. Jeff Garcia was a good QB who had little to no effect on his teammates in SF. The Niners' two QBs prior to Garcia were great QB's (Montana/Young), and they both made their teammates a lot better.

[Pappy13]

If you changed "good" in that example to "great," I'd buy it a bit more.

I still wouldn't buy it in the exact form he presented it. He said that Indy wouldn't win 3 games, I doubt that. I still think they would be a decent team even without Peyton and win maybe 7 or 8 games. He also said the Bills would make the playoffs, but I don't buy it. Buffalo's problems last year went far beyond QB play, their QB wasn't exactly playing that badly, just adding Peyton I don't think would have got them into the playoffs.

[fyo]

Good QB's make the players around them better. Take Peyton Manning off the Colts and they are lucky to win 3 games with that squad.

Good or great, both miss the point entirely, IMHO.

It's certainly possible for a bad team to improve drastically by importing a good veteran quarterback. The problem is, that might get you only a year or two (see Pennington, Chad). Actually developing a young player -- even a top draft pick -- is an entirely different proposition.

[yuppi]

i would trade henne for Tebow any day