Is Polite around?

[Phishfan]

Honestly, I feel as a fan our team should be able to make every 3rd or 4th and 1 or shorter regardless of the running back. Is that realistic, no. But so is giving all the credit to whoever gets the ball. Those situations are completely about blocking and getting into a hole quickly. The line carries the responsibility on those as much as any back you put back there.

[tepop84]

LOL, so he has converted 41 of 43 3rd or 4th and 1 (notice they aren't goalline carries where the defense sells out on run) in 4 years.  So that is like 10 per year.  I would say an average rb, who gets all the third or 4th and 1 (ignoring goalline carries since polite didn't get them) would probably be 85%.  So Polite gives you maybe 1 extra first down a year.  That doesn't make up for all his other terrible attributes.

[JVides]

So Polite gives you maybe 1 extra first down a year.  That doesn't make up for all his other terrible attributes.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6844816/nfl-scouts-inc-2011-top-fullback-rankings

If you're not an insider, let me recap:  Polite is listed as the 6th best FB in the league by Scouts, Inc.  His one poor attribute wasn't poor pre-2010.  He had a bad year last year.  So did the rest of the running game.  I'd definitely rather have him on the squad over a third tight end or fifth tackle.

[Spider-Dan]

I doubt he leads the league in 3rd and 4th and 1 situations.

Doubt no more.

http://www.miamidolphins.com/content/lousaka-polite

2010- [...] FIRST DOWNS: Carried the ball 15 times this season on third- and fourth-and-one and picked up the first down 14 times (including twice on one drive) ... Five of those 14 drives resulted in touchdowns ... Of those 15 carries, 13 came on third down, and his 92.3% conversion percentage in those carries led the NFL in third-and-one rushing conversions ...

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/19139/a-yard-to-go-chalk-it-up-for-polite

Polite has a reputation for being a sure thing in short-yardage situations. In Sunday night's loss to the New York Jets, he extended his streak of third- or fourth-and-1 conversions to 20.

ESPN.com researcher Vincent Masi harvested the databases and found nobody has come close to that kind of production since the start of the 2009 season, when Polite's streak began.

And he isn't really good at anything else.

The question is, does he need to be?  Even if you're a one-trick pony, that's a pretty damned useful trick.

i bet the league average for converting 3rd and 4th and 1s is pretty high.

Through week 12 of last year, the league average was 65.8%.

For the record, Miami's overall conversion percentage (on 3rd- and 4th-and-1) was a flat 70%.  Subtract Polite from that and the rest of the Dolphins are, um, not good.

tepop, before you continue, can you please clarify as to whether being able to convert short yardage is a valuable asset, or not?  First you doubted that he led the league, then after it was established that he did, you basically said it didn't matter anyway.

[fyo]

Spider, given those stats, I'm an even bigger Polite fan than ever!


And, I feel I need to reiterate a point on Polite's failed attempt this past weekend: Calling for a run right at the opposing team's heaviest player by far (Frank Okam) is a recipe for disaster and the blame for that is PROBABLY the offensive coordinator. Vernon Carey gets honorable mention for getting pushing a yard or two back by Okam before Polite even gets there.

[tepop84]

He is a terrible lead blocker and his pass catching isn't very impressive.  To say that he is valuable at 15 plays a year (that most non terrible running backs would do the same thing) is enough to overcome everything else is laughable.

[Spider-Dan]

To say that he is valuable at 15 plays a year (that most non terrible running backs would do the same thing) is enough to overcome everything else is laughable.

You continue to insist that any RB in the league can do what Polite has done, while ignoring that none of them actually did.  Again, I can bury this thread in statistics, but it seems like you're pretty much oblivious to them at this point:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2009&type=Rushing&range=NFL&rank=016
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&type=Rushing&range=NFL&rank=016

This is the list of league leaders on 3rd and <3 yards for 2009 and 2010 (it's not strictly -and-1, which is why Polite has one failed attempt in '09).  There are two items of note here:

- the only players in the top 10 for both years are Polite and David Garrard
- David Garrard is not a RB

So then, among RBs, not only has Polite been better than everyone else, he's also been dramatically more consistent; the rest of the top 10 RBs fluctuates wildly, having a completely different top 10 (save Polite) from one year to the next.

Listen, you aren't going to win this argument claiming that he didn't lead the league, and you aren't going to win it claiming that anyone else can do it just as well.  The only real point of discussion is whether or not a high conversion rate on 3rd/4th and short is a valuable skillset.  If you want to say that it's not, fine... but the least you can do is own your position.

[tepop84]

You continue to insist that any RB in the league can do what Polite has done, while ignoring that none of them actually did.  Again, I can bury this thread in statistics, but it seems like you're pretty much oblivious to them at this point:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2009&type=Rushing&range=NFL&rank=016
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&type=Rushing&range=NFL&rank=016

This is the list of league leaders on 3rd and <3 yards for 2009 and 2010 (it's not strictly -and-1, which is why Polite has one failed attempt in '09).  There are two items of note here:

- the only players in the top 10 for both years are Polite and David Garrard
- David Garrard is not a RB

So then, among RBs, not only has Polite been better than everyone else, he's also been dramatically more consistent; the rest of the top 10 RBs fluctuates wildly, having a completely different top 10 (save Polite) from one year to the next.

Listen, you aren't going to win this argument claiming that he didn't lead the league, and you aren't going to win it claiming that anyone else can do it just as well.  The only real point of discussion is whether or not a high conversion rate on 3rd/4th and short is a valuable skillset.  If you want to say that it's not, fine... but the least you can do is own your position.

You are using stats for 3rd and 3or less when polite only gets the ball when they have 1 yard or less.  Also note, polite doesn't get goal line carries where the defense doesn't have to respect a pass. I bet he wold look even better compared to everybody else if the stat you were using was 3rd and 5 or less.

[CF DolFan]

This is baffling to me. We've never had the success on getting that last yard until Polite took over duties. He's done it with whomever they put on the line. His success is not only better than what we have but everyone else. How can anyone not give him the credit but give it to our O-line? If that was the case why wouldn't we have given it to Ricky or Ronnie?

[Cathal]

Getting rid of Polite is crazy. That guy converts just about every short yardage situation we need.

[Phishfan]

How can anyone not give him the credit but give it to our O-line?

I mentioned the line so I want to defend that position. I said they carry the responsibility as much as the back. I don't think that position can be argued against. We saw how well Polite did with bad blocking the other night.

[Spider-Dan]

You are using stats for 3rd and 3or less when polite only gets the ball when they have 1 yard or less.

Wrong again.

Polite was perfect with 1 yard to go in 2009, but (as per that link) 12/13 with <3 yards to go (which means he necessarily had at least one multi-yard carry).  His numbers are even better if you include strictly -and-1 situations.

Also note, polite doesn't get goal line carries where the defense doesn't have to respect a pass.

Tell me, who did get all of our carries on the many instances of opponent's-1-yard-line opportunities that the Dolphins had over the last three years?  Polite can't get the ball in situations that don't exist.

tepop, I'm still waiting for you to clearly state whether the ability to convert short-yardage situations is a valuable asset or not.  I can sit here and shoot down your factually incorrect assumptions all day, but I'm not going to bother if, at the end of it all, you just say "well who cares about short yardage anyway?"

[tepop84]

Wrong again.

Polite was perfect with 1 yard to go in 2009, but (as per that link) 12/13 with <3 yards to go (which means he necessarily had at least one multi-yard carry).  His numbers are even better if you include strictly -and-1 situations.
Tell me, who did get all of our carries on the many instances of opponent's-1-yard-line opportunities that the Dolphins had over the last three years?  Polite can't get the ball in situations that don't exist.

his numbers are better, but you are still comparing his numbers to the numbers of rb who carried more with 3 yards than 1 yard (and who also would have gotten goal line carries).  What he has done isn't that impressive. I would rather have a running back who averages 5 yards a carry who gets 75% of the 1st downs, vs. somebody who gets 90% and only gains 2 yards.

[masterfins]

^^^ It's not necessarily a one or the other situation.  You need both types of players on your team.

[fyo]

I would rather have a running back who averages 5 yards a carry who gets 75% of the 1st downs, vs. somebody who gets 90% and only gains 2 yards.

5 yards a carry? So you're saying you'd rather have 2010 leading rusher Arian Foster? Oh wait, he doesn't get 5 yards a pop. Well, CJ2K then? Nope. Adrian Peterson then? Nope. None of those guys averaged 5 yards a carry last year.

Suffice to say, 5 yards a pop (while actually having some attempts) is VERY high for a running back.

So, yeah, no kidding, I'd rather have that as well.

The question here is whether you'd rather have Polite and his short-yardage-magic or a 4th string running back.