Is Polite around?

[tepop84]

Actually last year Arian Foster average 5.4 yards per carry on 3rd (or 4th) down with 1-2 to go over 23 attempts according to http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12497/arian-foster . Polite averaged 2.3 yards over 15 attempts (35 yards). Ricky had 5 attempts for 22 yards (4.4 ave).

[fyo]

Actually last year Arian Foster average 5.4 yards per carry on 3rd (or 4th) down with 1-2 to go over 23 attempts according to http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12497/arian-foster . Polite averaged 2.3 yards over 15 attempts (35 yards). Ricky had 5 attempts for 22 yards (4.4 ave).

If you're going to restrict it to 1-2 yards to go (perfectly valid), then I'm *personally* not much interested in averages. The only thing that matters is getting that first down / touchdown. Who cares about a few extra yards here and there compared to getting a first down?

[MikeO]

Getting rid of Polite is crazy. That guy converts just about every short yardage situation we need.

Thats part of the problem, now its so predictable that teams load up for it and it doesn't work anymore. Teams are waiting for him

[Spider-Dan]

Actually last year Arian Foster average 5.4 yards per carry on 3rd (or 4th) down with 1-2 to go over 23 attempts according to http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12497/arian-foster . Polite averaged 2.3 yards over 15 attempts (35 yards). Ricky had 5 attempts for 22 yards (4.4 ave).

So let's talk about these statistics.  (We will define "and short" as 1-2 yards to go.)

In 2010, Arian Foster, one of the best RBs in the league, had 4 rushes for 4 yards on 4th and short... with a long of 6.  That means that when his number was called on 4th and short, he got one first down (a 6-yard run), and three more rushes for a total of -2 yards.  That's a 25% conversion clip.  In comparison, Polite had 2 carries for 4 yards with a long of 2.  That's 2 yards per carry and a 100% conversion rate... vs. 25%.  When Polite's number was called, he was unquestionably better than Foster on 4th down.

Now, on third and short, Foster had 19 carries for 121 yards, with a long of 77 (and 2 TDs).  That's pretty impressive; in fact, Foster led the league in conversions when specifically considering -and-2 situations, which is yet another reason why he's an elite back.

But we aren't discussing whether we should keep Arian Foster or Lou Polite, because that's the dumbest argument in the world.  We are discussing whether we should keep Lou Polite or [Nic Grigsby or Mickey Shuler or Larry Johnson or Dedrick Epps or Marlon Moore].  And I'm pretty sure that none of them are leading the league in anything.

Let's look at the other player you cited: Ricky.  Ricky had zero 4th down carries, so it's only 3rd down that we need to look at.  On 3rd and short, Ricky had 5 carries for 22 yards... with a long of 15.  So on the other 4 carries he had, he averaged 1.75 yds per.  In comparison, Polite had 13 carries for 31 yards with a long of 4; with 1-2 yards to go, he averaged 2.4, and his average wasn't fluffed by a big (non-TD!) run.

To put this another way: if you want to gain 10 yards on 3rd-and-1, Polite is not the man to go to... but neither is Ricky Williams.  If you want to gain ONE yard on 3rd-and-1, you give it to Polite and he gets it.  If you want to get TEN yards on 3rd-and-1, you put Polite in the game, run play action to him, and throw the ball to Bess or Marshall.  You do not hand it off to Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, or any other Dolphin running back.

So again, why would we want to get rid of a player who is literally the best at the league in one specific, useful area?

[Spider-Dan]

Thats part of the problem, now its so predictable that teams load up for it and it doesn't work anymore. Teams are waiting for him

So after three years of 90%+ conversion rate, now it's predictable?  If a 90%+ success rate is what you call "not working anymore," how can we get Henne or Marshall to "stop working?"

Furthermore, I don't think I should have to explain why an opponent loading up for a "predictable" play in obvious situations isn't exactly a bad thing.  You want to send your entire defense to the center of the line to stop Polite at all costs?  By all means, put 11 men in the box.  That would instantly make Polite one of the most valuable players on the entire offense, and he wouldn't even have to carry the ball at all.

You are aware that Miami also has one of the league-leading receivers in third-down conversion %, right?

[Cathal]

Thats part of the problem, now its so predictable that teams load up for it and it doesn't work anymore. Teams are waiting for him

They haven't been able to do it before when everyone knew it was going to him anyway. What's your point?

[masterfins]

Thats part of the problem, now its so predictable that teams load up for it and it doesn't work anymore. Teams are waiting for him

I find it hard to believe that someone could argue that a player that gets the job done 90% of the time is a bad thing.  When a player is having a good preseason you argue that it's not good enough until the guy performs for a year, now you are arguing that a guy that has performed for three years is not good enough either?

[Doc-phin]

This whole discussion is ridiculous.  Polite is getting way too much credit here.  The only reason he has those stats is because we are the only team that would have given him the ball.  Most teams take a shot or two and don't just waste the down.  3rd and short, even 4th and short, is your chance to catch a team off guard and hit a big play.  Last years Dolphins were conservative to a fault and this was one of the few stats that got inflated because of it.

Polite had a few plays last year that he made a nice effort to get the 1st down.  But like the rest of you, I watched all the games and it was fairly obvious that the line did most of the work on nearly all of those pick ups.

Polite was a byproduct of a shitty offensive philosophy.  That shitty philosophy is going bye bye.  Polite will be lucky to keep his job because of it and the fact that his lead blocking has dropped off since his first year with us.  Simple as that.

[Cathal]

This whole discussion is ridiculous.  Polite is getting way too much credit here.  The only reason he has those stats is because we are the only team that would have given him the ball.  Most teams take a shot or two and don't just waste the down.  3rd and short, even 4th and short, is your chance to catch a team off guard and hit a big play.  Last years Dolphins were conservative to a fault and this was one of the few stats that got inflated because of it.

Polite had a few plays last year that he made a nice effort to get the 1st down.  But like the rest of you, I watched all the games and it was fairly obvious that the line did most of the work on nearly all of those pick ups.

Polite was a byproduct of a shitty offensive philosophy.  That shitty philosophy is going bye bye.  Polite will be lucky to keep his job because of it and the fact that his lead blocking has dropped off since his first year with us.  Simple as that.

And he still converted on almost all of his plays when we needed it and when everyone in the world knew he was getting the ball. I don't think he's getting too much credit.

[Doc-phin]

And he still converted on almost all of his plays when we needed it and when everyone in the world knew he was getting the ball. I don't think he's getting too much credit.

Did anything he did look at all unique to you?  My eyes told me that the o-line made a little room and ran into that spot.  I didn't see any special moves or power or bouncing around to find a gap to run through.  He didn't make a guy miss.  He gets the benefit of the stat, but it was primarily the o-line that did the job.

So Polite's skill set is:  don't be skinny, stay low, get the ball right behind the QB, run straight into the designed hole.  This is big time stuff!  I don't know where we can find another player like that.   

Keep in mind, I like the guy just fine.  But I am telling you he isn't worth the roster spot this time.  We have bigger fish to fry than 3rd and 1 at the 50.  We need big play potential on every snap and we have guys who are plenty big that can do what he did and offer big play potential at the same time.

[fyo]

So Polite's skill set is:  don't be skinny, stay low, get the ball right behind the QB, run straight into the designed hole.  This is big time stuff!  I don't know where we can find another player like that.  

You could argue the same thing about a guy like Jerome Betis.

[MikeO]

You could argue the same thing about a guy like Jerome Betis.

Your comparing a Top 5 ALL TIME NFL Rusher to Polite?

Holy crap, now I have read everything. Give me a break! That is taking being a "homer" to a whole new level.

[Spider-Dan]

This whole discussion is ridiculous.  Polite is getting way too much credit here.  The only reason he has those stats is because we are the only team that would have given him the ball.  Most teams take a shot or two and don't just waste the down.

You do understand what conversion percentage means, right?  If other teams were throwing hail mary passes on 3rd-and-1, that does not impact their backs' conversion percentage at all.  Other backs have a lower conversion percentage because, when their team DID decide to give the ball to them and pound their way to a first, those backs failed much more often.  Polite has failed exactly twice in over 40 tries.

3rd and short, even 4th and short, is your chance to catch a team off guard and hit a big play.

I would love to know which league you are watching.  I would really enjoy watching a football league where teams play aggressively on 4th-and-short.  However, that league is DEFINITELY not the NFL; any coach who went down the field on 4th-and-short with anything appproaching regularity would be incinerated in the press.

Furthermore, as I already said, having Polite on the team makes it easier to go down the field on 3rd-and-short, because the opponent needs to heavily prioritize stopping him.  So I'm not sure what point you're even trying to make.

Did anything he did look at all unique to you?

90% conversion rate over the last three years looks pretty unique to me, given that he's the only one in the league doing it.

So Polite's skill set is:  don't be skinny, stay low, get the ball right behind the QB, run straight into the designed hole.  This is big time stuff!  I don't know where we can find another player like that.   

 
Again, if it's so easy, why is he the only back in the league that's doing it?  Does Miami have a line that's drastically superior to the rest of the league for the last 3 years??

But I am telling you he isn't worth the roster spot this time.  We have bigger fish to fry than 3rd and 1 at the 50.  We need big play potential on every snap and we have guys who are plenty big that can do what he did and offer big play potential at the same time.

Does Mickey Shuler have big play ability?  How about Dedrick Epps?  Because these are the guys that you are talking about keeping over Polite.

Oh, and in case you were thinking it's Lex Hilliard:  in 2009, Hilliard's stat line on 3rd-and-short was 3 attempts for 2 yards.  That's, um, not the same thing as what Polite does.

[fyo]

Your comparing a Top 5 ALL TIME NFL Rusher to Polite?

No, I was comparing your argument to the virtually identical one that critics of Bettis have put forth over the years.

Bettis was a GREAT player, one of my all-time favorites. In no way am I implying that Polite is even remotely close to his level.

[Guru-In-Vegas]

I'm glad Spider's here. 

That is all.