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Author Topic: Ranking the Dolphins  (Read 2907 times)
fyo
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« on: September 07, 2011, 09:47:41 am »

I thought it would be fun to do a little overview of various power rankings in the media looking at where they each have the Dolphins. I wasn't able to find as many as I'd hoped, so please post links to rankings from "reputable" source (i.e. not some random blog, yes, PFT gets a pass) and I'll include them.

PFT29
NFL.com23
Fox Sports27
ESPN24
Football Outsiders10
CBS Sports18
SB Nation24

Sports Illustrated's Peter King did an total season prediction which has the Dolphins finishing LAST in the division. Only PFT had the Dolphins ranked below the Bills, so that's "exclusive company", I guess... Don Banks does the weekly power rankings once the season starts, but it doesn't appear they have anything before then.
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Doc-phin
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2011, 12:07:03 pm »

Sounds like you may be looking for reputable posts as opposed to comments, so forgive me if that is the case.

I just don't like the rankings from most of these big organizations.  They rely very heavily on the previous year most of the time and look at perennial contenders.  Everything else is just free agent hype.  It doesn't mean they are wrong for many of their playoff picks.  Playoff teams typically have great QB situations or they are in weak divisions and are easier to predict.

I give credit to King for going out on a limb and not just picking last years flavor.  But even he has stated that his strength is not in predictions but in human interest pieces and inside scoops.  I don't look at his predictions at all.

As do many of you, I know our team well and I know our division well.  In fact, fans like us can probably sit there and hammer out our division results better than any of the above listed sources if we consciously make an effort to remain objective.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My personal feelings are that the Jets are in for a bit of a slide in the regular season.  If they make the playoffs, they can still be a force but when it comes to week in week out I just see them falling off a bit.  The door is open for us to take second in our division.  Then the question becomes record.  I looked at our schedule and can absolutely see 10 very reasonable wins on there.  Would our record be good enough for a wildcard spot?  If we are thinking wildcard then that puts us in the top 16 power ranking area.  I think we are on the fringe of that which gets us somewhere around 15-18 on power ranking.   

Look at the slide we are expecting out of the Colts.  The AFC west is still a mess and the Chargers always seem to underperform.  The Giants, Bucs, Texans, Ravens, Jets, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Titans and Vikings are all very questionable teams ranked above us in most articles I have seen.  Do we beat them all out, probably not.  But we are definitely higher than the 20 or lower area (almost) all of these predictors have us at.

Therefore I would put us at 16 for the start of the season.

Where do I come up with the wins?

Browns, Chargers or Houston (one of the two), split Jets, Denver, Giants, KC, Skins, sweep Buffalo, Dallas and Oakland.

Even if we get a bogus loss in there, we may be able to get a split with the Pats and/or sweep the Jets.  DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE JETS!  THEY ARE GREAT IN THE PLAYOFFS, BUT NO WHERE NEAR DOMINANT IN THE REGULAR SEASON!

I know the reason for the low rankings is our QB questions, but I can definitely see improvement in Henne with this new offensive scheme (and his ability to audible) and our offense will at the very least be much less predictable for opposing defenses.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2011, 12:36:48 pm »

Personally I think Jeff Sagarin's "ratings" tend to be the most accurate since they are based totally on statistics and not simply how someone "feels" about a team.  Last year at the end of the season Jeff had the Dolphins at 15. He hasn't yet released a rating for 2011 because he doesn't use preseason stats because they are next to worthless. After week 1 he'll create his first 2011 "ratings".

http://www.usatoday.com//sports/sagarin/nfl10.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Jeff Sagarin:  15 (at the end of 2010)

It's interesting to me that the 2 "stats" ratings, Sagarin's and Football Outsiders have them ranked much higher than most of the "gut feeling" rankings.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 01:10:38 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Guru-In-Vegas
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2011, 03:20:00 pm »

I just don't understand the hate for the Dolphins.  29th?  Really?  I understand the Lions are stacked and most (including me) are expecting them to blow up but they still remain unproven.  I can easily pick 5+ teams I KNOW are going to do worse than us.  Vikings, Seahawks, Redskins, Raiders, Broncos, Bills and Carolina.  Hell, I'll even throw in the Giants (injuries) and Cowboys (pure hype, they'll suck) even. 

I understand our offense was totally limp last year but it's not like opposing teams were lighting up the scoreboard against us either.  I just cannot agree with respect any ranking that does not have us in the middle of the pack area. 

Edit to add -

And this is PFT's reasoning?  I guess PFT is the NFL's TMZ. 

29. Dolphins:  The owner wanted Jim Harbaugh, but settled for Tony Sparano.  Sparano wanted Kyle Orton, but settled for Chad Henne.  The fans want the Heat, but may have to settle for the Dolphins.

Why don't they mention how Reggie Bush is going to be thinking about Kim Kardashian and won't have football on the mind rather how FABULOUS she looked in her designer wedding dress.  Roll Eyes
« Last Edit: September 07, 2011, 03:28:49 pm by Guru-In-Vegas » Logged
MikeO
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2011, 06:48:48 pm »

Nobody respects Sparano. Even less respect Henne. I "get" the Dolphins hate. the proof is in the pudding!  I just think the "national media" have no clue our defense is good enough to probably keep us in every game. And I see the Fins in a lot of 3 pt games this year. Win some, lose some. I think we will be a bland/boring middle of the road team.

I think you seriously have a shot to have teams like Carolina and Cincy win 3 games between the both of them. I think Washington is god awful. Miami isn't anywhere near that level of bad. If the Fins o-line falls apart (and it may) then we are one of the 5 worst teams in the league. If the O-line is just average at best (which it is on paper) the Fins win 6-8 games easily)

What I don't get is the Jets hype. The Jets got worse on offense at WR and o-line and worse on defense on the d-line and people still think they are super bowl contenders. Their offense is so friggin old its comical. LT, Plax, Mason. They can't replace Braylon and Brad Smith. Not only do I think the Jets aren't a playoff team I wouldn't be shocked if they finished behind Miami or Buffalo in the division if either gets hot this year.
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mecadonzilla
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2011, 07:55:51 pm »

Nobody respects Sparano. Even less respect Henne.

I watched a fantasy football show on NFL Network today that projected Henne to be the second highest scoring fantasy QB this season based on metrics from last season's stats of opposing defenses and strength of schedule projections for opposing defenses for this season.  (it was a long and complicated formula)  The panel of fantasy commentators all thought Henne would have a big year, but dampened their praise by suggesting that he should be a bench warmer until the right match-up presented itself.

That actually sounds like some kind of respect.  Granted they're not football guys, just fans like us who happen to be on TV talking fantasy football.  Of course, it goes without saying they don't care about his win/loss record as it was a show with strictly fantasy football focus.

I didn't want to derail completely, just wanted to mention that at least someone out there seems to respect Henne's prospects for the season.  It was encouraging to hear.

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Sunstroke
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2011, 08:27:57 pm »

I watched a fantasy football show on NFL Network today that projected Henne to be the second highest scoring fantasy QB this season based on metrics from last season's stats of opposing defenses and strength of schedule projections for opposing defenses for this season.

Crack is a hell of a drug...

(it was a long and complicated formula) 

(It was a shitload of crack...)

The panel of fantasy commentators all thought Henne would have a big year, but dampened their praise by suggesting that he should be a bench warmer until the right match-up presented itself.

The #2 overall fantasy QB should be a benchwarmer until the right matchup? They were stupid long before they started smoking crack...

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"There's no such thing as objectivity. We're all just interpreting signals from the universe and trying to make sense of them. Dim, shaky, weak, staticky little signals that only hint at the complexity of a universe that we cannot begin to comprehend."
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mecadonzilla
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2011, 08:41:20 pm »

LOL
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Doc-phin
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2011, 11:15:33 am »

Math geeks aren't football fans.  Like Stroke said, that is some whacked out of your mind shit.  Maybe the heat just got to them this summer.

Still, Miami is better than most of the rankings and that isn't homerism.
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jtex316
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2011, 04:19:33 pm »

Math geeks aren't football fans.

Thanks.

-jtex316
NFL fan and Math Geek.
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BigDaddyFin
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2011, 07:35:08 pm »

So basically, every sportswriter thinks the Dolphins are a second tier team.  OH THERE'S A BIG SURPRISE.  I THINK I'm GOING TO HAVE A HEART ATTACK AND DIE FROM THAT SURPRISE Tongue But seriously, I'd like to call a Lou Brown and hang around and see if we can give them all a nice big shitburger to eat.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2011, 06:22:56 pm »

So basically, every sportswriter thinks the Dolphins are a second tier team.  OH THERE'S A BIG SURPRISE.  I THINK I'm GOING TO HAVE A HEART ATTACK AND DIE FROM THAT SURPRISE Tongue But seriously, I'd like to call a Lou Brown and hang around and see if we can give them all a nice big shitburger to eat.
Actually I don't think they even consider Miami a second tier team, they consider them a third tier team if they are ranking them in the bottom third of the league.
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BigDaddyFin
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2011, 07:58:24 am »

Pappy, most of the ones listed above have us listed 24th or higher, being there are 32 teams, that's second tier.  We have to try and win at whatever we can until we start winning on the field.  We can afford to be optimists, the games haven't started being played yet.

Don Banks is an imbecille and beyond arrogant, Peter King is right more often than he's wrong.  I'm not sure who does the rankings at ESPN but they hate the Dolphins and always rank us low.  CBS sports?  I think if I threw a dart at a wall I'd get a more accurate prediction.  Football outsiders has us at 10?  I'd say that's a little high and they're probably banking on Henne having a big year, Bush not getting hurt and Thomas channeling his inner Jim Kiick.

Never heard of SB nation, NFL.com probably let Jamie Dukes do the picking and he's about as intelligent as my stapler.  Brian Billick did the picking for Fox Sports, and he says he "has no idea."  You're going to hear "I have no idea" from Brian Billick about a lot of things because he's lucky he finds his way out of the house in the morning.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2011, 07:51:13 pm »

Pappy, most of the ones listed above have us listed 24th or higher, being there are 32 teams, that's second tier.
Come again? 1-11 is 1st tier. 12-22 is second tier. 23-32 is third tier.
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