Andrew Luck is no guarantee

[Brian Fein]

"Suck for Luck" is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.  This is a college QB going to come in here and be terrible.  How many times have we done this?

Dolphins fans have no patience to allow QB's to develop.  If you really think Andrew Luck is going to join the Miami Dolphins and instantly throw 45 TD's and 10 INT's his first season, then you are all VERY delusional.

[Doc-phin]

Is it really the "most ridiculous" thing you have heard?  Sure there is no guarantee, but isn't he about as close as you are going to get?

This team doesn't need instant wins.  This team needs legit hope.  Take away Sparano and Henne and insert Cower and Luck and you can't tell me there wouldn't be instant hope and some time given to develop.

Keep in mind, I don't think Sparano is the problem.  But I don't think Henne is the answer and you absolutely have to have a good QB to win in the league today.  Good QB's very rarely get let go from other teams so you have to win in the draft or develop the shit out of a guy (also rare).  Our best chance at getting substantially better is a guy like Luck.

[Brian Fein]

I wouldn't be instant anything.  If all you need is hope, then that's skewed.  I want results.

I don't think Henne is the primary problem.  I grant you, he could be better.

I cite 2 examples:
the 2008 Patriots, the 2011 Colts

The 2008 Patriots were a good team with a great QB.  When they lost their QB week 1, they continued on to win 11 games.  Granted they missed the playoffs, but I'd still consider that to be a successful season.

The 2011 Colts are a horrible team with a great QB.  They lost their QB and can't win a game. 

I'd rather have a team like the 2008 Patriots than the 2011 Colts.  If you replace Henne with Andrew Luck, EVEN IF HE IS THE GREATEST EVER, you're still only the 2011 Colts.

If you ask me, I'd rather address the entire team's problems than 1 position.  This can't be done in 1 offseason or 1 draft.

[dolfan13]

u guys act as if the dolphins only have one draft pick and no money to acquire free agents next year.

the facts are that drafting a qb after the first round amount to almost throwing away your draft pick down the toilet. it is the position where it is heavily skewed to finding successful starters in the first round significantly more than at any other position.

having a chance to draft the best qb prospect in more than a generation at a position of need? nah, let's just try and fix the position by continuing to shop in the 99 cents store... some of you guys have no sense.

[Doc-phin]

We are the 2011 Colts now even with our starting QB.

I would rather be the Colts of the last 10 years and we need a great QB to get there.

I don't know how the Pats did as well as they did that year without Brady.  We need to shoot for something we can realistically achieve.  We can achieve 0-16 with a #1 overall QB draft selection.   

[Pappy13]

If we keep Sparano, then taking Luck won't accomplish much in my humble opinion.

[Dave Gray]

Sparano is done.  It's not even worth discussing.  If we do poorly enough to get Luck, he's gone.  It's not possible for him to save his job, realsitically. 

[tubba marxxx]

Nothing is a guarantee in the NFL, or any sport for that matter.


Miami needs to draft a QB in the first round of the draft (real quick, it's week 5 and we're talking draft, pathetic).


Enough of the this 2nd round drama with either drafting a QB there, or trading for the "future" with a 2nd round pick


The last time Miami drafted a QB in the first round, was in 1983, and I think that pick worked out pretty well.  Just sayin

[fyo]

dolfan13 has a point, although it's sometimes hard to understand wtf he means.

I wasn't sure about the numbers, but looking over the good quarterbacks in the past 5 years or so (disregarding 2010 and 2011 draft picks, since there's just no way to judge them yet), it seems like first rounders work out about 50% of the time (most are taken high in round 1, but the "misses" came just as much from those very high picks), whereas 2nd rounders work out maybe 10% of the time. And then you have the weird 6-7th round grouping of quarterbacks who, while not great (except Brady), actually seem pretty decent.

I've never been against taking a good quarterback if you can get one, and this just reinforces that belief.

All that said... I don't see a chance in hell of anyone trading away the #1 pick for anything remotely reasonable.

[tubba marxxx]

dolfan13 has a point, although it's sometimes hard to understand wtf he means.

I wasn't sure about the numbers, but looking over the good quarterbacks in the past 5 years or so (disregarding 2010 and 2011 draft picks, since there's just no way to judge them yet), it seems like first rounders work out about 50% of the time (most are taken high in round 1, but the "misses" came just as much from those very high picks), whereas 2nd rounders work out maybe 10% of the time. And then you have the weird 6-7th round grouping of quarterbacks who, while not great (except Brady), actually seem pretty decent.

I've never been against taking a good quarterback if you can get one, and this just reinforces that belief.

All that said... I don't see a chance in hell of anyone trading away the #1 pick for anything remotely reasonable.

Here's every starting QB in the league today:

Brady - 6th round pick
Brees - 2nd round pick
Newton - 1st round pick
Rodgers - 1st round pick
Rivers - 1st round pick
Romo - undrafted
Stafford - 1st round pick
Hasselbeck - 6th round pick
Roethlisberger - 1st round pick
Ryan - 1st round pick
Manning - 1st round pick
Kolb - 2nd round pick
Fitzpatrick - 7th round pick
Vick - 1st round pick
Sanchez - 1st round pick
Grossman - 1st round pick
McCoy - 1st round pick
Flacco - 1st round pick
Freeman - 1st round pick
Shaub - 3rd round pick
Cutler - 1st round pick
Orton - 4th round pick
Campbell - 1st round pick
Henne - 2nd round pick
Dalton - 2nd round pick
Bradford - 1st round pick
Jackson - 2nd round pick
Smith - 1st round pick
Cassel - 7th round pick
McNabb - 1st round pick
Gabbert - 1st round pick
Painter - 6th round pick


32 Starting Quarterbacks..

19 were 1st round picks. 
5 were 2nd round picks
1 was a 3rd round pick
1 was a 4th round pick
3 were 6th round picks
3 were 7th round picks
1 was undrafted


I say, see what you have in Pat Devlin, and what he can do for the rest of this season.  Unless Devlin blows our minds...it's pretty clear that an investment needs to be made in the first round for a quarterback.  Again, 1983 was the last time they did that..

[Brian Fein]

For completeness, why not list the 1st and 2nd round QB's who were drafted in the past 10 years, and see how many are still even in the league:

Cam Newton - starter
Jake Locker - backup
Blaine Gabbert - starter
Christian Ponder - backup
Andy Dalton - starter
Colin Kaepernick - backup
Sam Bradford - starter
Tim Tebow - backup
Jimmy Claussen - backup
Matt Stafford - starter
Mark Sanchez - starter
Josh Freeman - starter
Pat White - out of the league
Matt Ryan - starter
Joe Flacco - starter
Brian Brohm - out of the league
Chad Henne - starter
JaMarcus Russell - out of the league
Brady Quinn - backup
Kevin Kolb - starter
John Beck - backup
Drew Stanton - backup
Vince Young - backup
Matt Leinart - backup
Jay cutler - starter
Kellen Clemens - out of the league
Tavaris Jackson - starter
Alex Smith - starter
Aaron Rodgers - starter
Jason Campbell - starter
Eli Manning - starter
Philip Rivers - starter
Ben Roethlisberger - starter
JP Losman - out of the league
Carson Palmer - out of the league
Byron Leftwich - backup
Kyle Boller - backup
Rex Grossman - starter
David Carr - backup
Joey Harrington - out of the league
Patrick Ramsey - out of the league
Michael Vick - starter
Drew Brees - starter
Quincy Carter - out of the league
Marques Tuiasosopo - out of the league

22 starters
10 out of the league
13 backups

So, it looks like a 1st or 2nd round pick is likely to at least make a roster.  And appears that the great majority of 1st and 2nd round QB's are starters eventually.  Especially considering that most of these guys were starters at least at one time in their career.

[Tenshot13]

McCoy - 1st round pick

If you're refering to Colt, he was a third round pick...Gerald McCoy was taken in the first, a DT.

[Brian Fein]

If you're refering to Colt, he was a third round pick...Gerald McCoy was taken in the first, a DT.

Word - 85 overall

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2010/draft.htm

[Sunstroke]

Not to make ya adjust numbers, but Drew Stanton isn't out of the league...he's a backup for the Lions.

[MikeO]

He is as close to a sure thing as anyone in the last 20+ years of the NFL Draft