San Francisco 49ers: What a Difference a Year and a Coach Make

[BigDaddyFin]

I have a feeling Harbaugh will do very well, but it's also only 6 weeks into the season.

[Pappy13]

Sure you can, at least a little.

So Ginn is #5 on your list or even further on down the line?

[Sunstroke]

I don't think it is possible to put an exact percentage or number on his contribution, just that Ginn has definitely been contributing to the turnaround.

If I had to try though, I'd guess that Tedd Ginn is responsible for roughly 3.01782% of the team's improvement this season...

[Pappy13]

I don't think it is possible to put an exact percentage or number on his contribution, just that Ginn has definitely been contributing to the turnaround.

If I had to try though, I'd guess that Tedd Ginn is responsible for roughly 3.01782% of the team's improvement this season...

Then a 5th round pick is about right. Nolan Carrol has contributed roughly 3.01782% to the Dolphins improvement from last....ahem....well...neverm ind.

[Sunstroke]

Nolan Carroll looks like an NFL cornerback on 3.01782% of his plays...

[Sunstroke]

Really nice article on the 49ers "unconventional" power-running strategies this season...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2011/10/26/SPDE1LM83O.DTL


As an ex-NFL fullback, Daryl Johnston appreciates the power-run philosophy the 49ers have implemented this season.

Johnston said it bears little resemblance to the vaunted ground game in which he played with Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys in the 1990s.

Then again, some of what the 49ers have done this season doesn't look like, well, anything other NFL teams are doing.

A formation with six offensive linemen and two fullbacks? How about three tight ends bunched to one side? Or a formation with four tight ends, one being an offensive lineman moonlighting at another position?

"They'll throw some unique formations at you," said Johnston, a Fox television analyst who has been in the booth for the 49ers' past two wins, against the Buccaneers and the Lions. "In the Tampa game, they had the three tight ends out there to one side. It's just not traditional.

"It's not what we ran (in Dallas). You know, we had our offense, and here's what we're going to run, and whatever you do defensively, we're coming at you. This approach is more, we like to run the ball, but we're not going to beat our heads against a brick wall to do it."

In other words, the 49ers are taking a cerebral approach to playing smashmouth football, using motion and unique personnel groups to create mismatches, often by overloading one side of the line.

The recent results have been stunning. In their past three games, the Niners have collected 580 rushing yards - their highest three-game total since 2006 - while averaging 6.4 yards a carry. San Francisco has had back-to-back 200-yard rushing games for the first time since 1998.

Johnston said the 49ers' offensive staff has been adept at identifying a weakness in an opponent's run defense and then exploiting it.

"They decide where they feel good about running: 'Is our matchup between the tackles better? Is our matchup better on the outside to the perimeter?' " Johnston said. "And then they are really gearing that run scheme to not really account for what they do defensively, but to attack it and take advantage of it. It's pretty impressive."

Tight end Justin Peelle, a 10-year NFL veteran who played with three other teams before signing with San Francisco this season, said the Niners' power-running attack is unique.

On Tuesday, Peelle laughed as he recalled 330-pound nose guard Isaac Sopoaga, lined up at fullback, going in motion earlier this season. And right guard Adam Snyder lining up at fullback.

"Putting a defensive lineman in motion? That was a first for me," Peelle said. "Having our starting guard line up at fullback? That was a first for me, too. But it's just a way of finding different ways to run the plays that we're good at. The defense knows what's coming. It's not like we're going to release Snyder on a seam route."

At this point in the season, opponents know the 49ers want to run. How they establish their ground attack each week, however, remains a bit of a mystery.

"This approach is completely different," Johnston said. "You're going to see them do some similar things from week to week that you can watch on film. But there's going to be something that a defense does that they're going to take advantage of."

[Sunstroke]

Bump... How 'bout those 8-1 Niners!!

They just beat a very good Giants team, despite Frank Gore rushing for zero yards... Just amazing.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I said from the first day that it was stupid to trade Ted Ginn and it looks like I was right.       

I have always maintained that the Dolphins screwed up twice with Ted Ginn.  He is worth more than a 5th and less than a 1st. 

[Pappy13]

Bump... How 'bout those 8-1 Niners!!

Niner's are this year's KC Chiefs from last year. Will have the same fate as KC has had this year next year, return to the mean. But it's still something to build on and this year will be a fun one. Certainly beats the opposite.

[Sunstroke]

Niner's are this year's KC Chiefs from last year. Will have the same fate as KC has had this year next year, return to the mean.

We'll lose our best defensive player and offensive player in the first 3 weeks of the season like KC did this year? Are ya trying to cast some funky gypsy pigskin curse or something?

San Francisco and Kansas City are two completely different teams, and despite the implied certainty of your prediction, unless "return to the mean" means "return to double digit wins and another division title," then I'll humbly disagree with your "guess," and wait for next season to come and settle the point.

[Pappy13]

We'll lose our best defensive player and offensive player in the first 3 weeks of the season like KC did this year?

Perhaps, but I'm not predicting that.

Are ya trying to cast some funky gypsy pigskin curse or something?

Not at all. I have nothing against the 49'ers. I wouldn't mind them winning it all this year if that's in the cards. I just believe that teams that come out of nowhere and have a breakout season usually fall back the following year. It happens quite a bit. It happens so often they even have a term for it, it's called return to the mean. Statisticians live for this kind of stuff. I'm not a statistician, but I do believe that many things can be analyzed using statistics and I do believe there are certain trends that are based on facts. They're not inevitable, but they are pretty likely.

San Francisco and Kansas City are two completely different teams, and despite the implied certainty of your prediction, unless "return to the mean" means "return to double digit wins and another division title," then I'll humbly disagree with your "guess," and wait for next season to come and settle the point.

Fair enough, although you were pretty certain about your KC prediction earlier in the year which I doubted and that one hasn't been too kind to you. It's actually not looking too bad just yet, as KC is 4-5 and could still have a decent season, but that's looking on the bright side, because the critical person would look at their upcoming schedule of New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Jets and Green Bay and realize they'll be fortunate to win 3 more games this year and finish 7-9. My guess is more like 6-10 or worse. Now some of that you can blame on losing players and some of that you can't, for instance I didn't know at the time that Indy was going to lose Peyton for the year and that game would practically be a gimme win for KC. Also losing players to injuries is a part of the whole "return to the mean" theory. That sometimes you are very fortunate with things like injuries, but those things tend to even out over time and a lot of the time that comes back to bite you the next year.

Not trying to ruffle your feathers Sunstroke, it's just how things are. That's life. What comes around goes around. Or at least that's what I believe.

[Sunstroke]

My KC prediction (like any team prediction) carried the unspoken "as long as bizarre random injuries don't ravage that team" disclaimer, KC definitely got pounded by injuries, and they are still doing better than most folks on this board (other than me) projected.

[Pappy13]

My KC prediction (like any team prediction) carried the unspoken "as long as bizarre random injuries don't ravage that team" disclaimer, KC definitely got pounded by injuries, and they are still doing better than most folks on this board (other than me) projected.

Well my prediction for both KC this year and San Francisco next year is based on the fact that injuries in the NFL are part of the game and often change things considerably year over year.

Without trying to sound too self absorbed, I did also predict that Cincy would have a breakout year in that same thread. I'm 2 for 2 on predictions this year. (Just ignore that whole thing about Cleveland perhaps surprising people. LOL). That was kind of a reverse return to the mean thing. I didn't think Cincy was as bad last year as their record indicated and would bounce back a bit with the help of an easy schedule. I know, I know SoS doesn't mean anything.

[Sunstroke]

What you see as an anomalous season for the 49ers, I see as the natural correction of a course that had been suppressed by one factor...poor coaching. I think SF's talent base had been improving steadily over the last 3-4 years, and only inept coaching prevented the team from having a win-loss record that matched their increasing talent level. The coaching staff this year, from top to bottom, is significantly better than any coaching staff we've had in a very long time.

I could see a "return to the mean" if their spike this season was due to fluke conditions or a number of players performing significantly above their talent levels. I just don't see that as the case though... The only player who is really "overperforming" is Alex Smith, and I could argue that the only reason he had difficulties his first six seasons was the revolving door of offensive coordinators (6 different OC's in 6 years) and different systems to learn anew each preseason.

But, as I noted earlier, we'll see how it plays out next season. If SF regresses back "to the mean," I will gladly give you credit for the call (OK, maybe not gladly), but when the 49ers come out next season and again dominate the weak NFC West and finish with 11-12 wins and another trip to the playoffs, I'll expect to see the same admission from you up here.

Run the ball and stop the run. Control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. It's a proven recipe for success in the NFL, and it's a recipe that Harbaugh and the Niners are using to cook up some seriously gourmet football.

[Pappy13]

I undestand Sun. I really do. I thought I saw the same things in Miami in 2008. Ball control mistake free offense. Solid defense. Good special teams play. Sound familiar?

I ignored the fact that Pennington was a ticking timebomb which was the reason that the Jets dumped him in the first place.
I ignored the fact that the wildcat only covered up the fact that we couldn't run the ball unless we were in that formation.
I ignored the fact that we had a very easy schedule.
I ignored the fact that New England lost Tom Brady for the year in the 1st game of the year and that Brett Favre practically threw the season away for the Jets.
I ignored the fact that Sparano was mostly a rah-rah kind of guy that got the troops fired up to play on gameday, but didn't really prepare them to play on gameday and was often out-coached on gameday.

It's easy to see past all that when you are winning, as they say winning cures everything, but it's all come back to haunt the Dolphins this last year because we held on to Sparano one year too many because of what happened in 2008. Had 2008 never happened, I'm positive Sparano and probably Parcells would have been gone much sooner and perhaps Dolphins 2011 would have never happened.

Maybe you are correct and it's not like that in SF and you might be right. I don't really know much about SF really, but I think there are some warning signs.

I think too much is being made of the job that Alex Smith is doing. He's having a great year, but I'm not sure he can do that every year or even ever again.

Teams are still getting used to Harbaugh and his coaching style. They haven't seen enough game tape yet to figure him out. I'm not saying he's not a good coach, I think he is a very good coach, but I think teams will see his tendencies a bit more as they get to see him more and will be able to gameplan a bit better for his team.

They are in one of the worst divisions in football and their schedule has been very favorable up to now.

All I'm suggesting is that things are all lining up nicely for the Niners this year and it may not be that way next year.

And for the record, I didn't think Mike Singletary was a bad coach at all. Harbaugh is probably better and sometimes just bringing in a new coach and fresh perspective is all that some guys need, but that only works until you hit some adversity.