Players with trade value

[tubba marxxx]

^^Why are you just assuming that the best situation is to have both Manning and Luck on your roster?  You yourself have said that the days of drafting a rookie QB and sitting him on the bench for a couple years to groom him behind a veteran are gone. Why not pick one and get what you can for the other one? That seems like getting the most bang for your buck. Having both of them on your roster is simply a waist of talent.

Now that's just my opinion, you may have a different one and Indy might too, but you seem to be implying that it's the only logical thing to do and I don't think it is. It's the "safe" thing to do, but not necessarily the best thing to do.

If Indianapolis ends up with the first pick, they're taking Andrew Luck.  Done deal, take it to the bank.  Why?  Because it makes the most sense in the world to do so.  This year proved how valuable Peyton Manning is to the Colts.  I realize he doesn't play defense, but if Peyton is healthy this year, the Colts are at least at .500 right now.  The Colts go all in on Peyton Manning every year by never having him a serviceable back-up, and this year it bit them in the ass big time.  Drafting Luck would be an automatic upgrade over Curtis Painter in case Peyton proves to again not be the iron man we all thought he was.  Not only from a potential back-up stand point, but Luck would be the perfect successor to Peyton.  Peyton has another 3 years in him before he's packing it in.  In today's CBA and Rookie Scale, it wouldn't be outlandish to sign Luck to some 5 or 6 year deal without breaking the bank.  Do this, groom Luck under one of the greatest quarterbacks to EVER play the game, and you have yourself another 15 years of Hall of Fame Quarterback play in Indianapolis.  See also:  Joe Montana/Steve Young and Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers.



Back on topic though:  Miami should be content with Landry Jones.  Jones is a pretty damn good QB in his own right.  No ridiculous trade should need to happen on draft day, Unless of course a team like Seattle or Washington ends up with a higher draft selection that Miami.  It's a weird situation this year that most of the teams the are potentially drafting in the top 10, have some sort of quarterback situation already figured out.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The most recent rumor I heard floating around was that if IND, STL, or CAR gets the #1 and trades it, it will cost somewhere in the range of four first-round picks.

Big boys only at the table, please.

1. That is a rumor.  Aka someone who knows as little as us, speculating.
2. The cost will be very dependant on the draft position of the trading partner.  E.g. #1 overall for #2 overall plus XXX, is entirely different than #1 overall for #32 overall plus YYY.  If this years superbowl winner want the #1 overall (e.g. the QB sustains and career ending injury in the 4th quarter and the team wins anyway) they will likely have to give this years first and second plus next years first plus more.  OTOH, #1 overall might be had for as little as #2 overall plus #34 overall, if the team with the first pick doesn't want QB but is hot and heavy on another player.

[Phishfan]

When is the last time someone traded the first pick away (let's not count Eli Manning because that was not a trade of position but a trade of picks)? Why do we discuss it every year?

[masterfins]

The most recent rumor I heard floating around was that if IND, STL, or CAR gets the #1 and trades it, it will cost somewhere in the range of four first-round picks.

Big boys only at the table, please.

As you point out it's just a rumor, no one knows what three different teams would want.  That said, given the over compensation by Oakland for Palmer, I'm sure the price will be high, but I don't think anyone is stupid enough to give up four first round picks.

[tubba marxxx]

When is the last time someone traded the first pick away (let's not count Eli Manning because that was not a trade of position but a trade of picks)? Why do we discuss it every year?

2001

Atlanta got the number one pick

San Diego got the 5th overal selection and Atlanta's 3rd round pick

[Spider-Dan]

2. The cost will be very dependant on the draft position of the trading partner.  E.g. #1 overall for #2 overall plus XXX, is entirely different than #1 overall for #32 overall plus YYY.  If this years superbowl winner want the #1 overall (e.g. the QB sustains and career ending injury in the 4th quarter and the team wins anyway) they will likely have to give this years first and second plus next years first plus more.  OTOH, #1 overall might be had for as little as #2 overall plus #34 overall, if the team with the first pick doesn't want QB but is hot and heavy on another player.

If there actually is a team with four first-rounders in their mind, it won't matter a whole lot where the other team is picking this year.

As for whether or not someone would actually do it, I'll repeat a hypothetical question that I've asked other people in real life:

If you could know, in advance, that drafting player x will definitely result in one Super Bowl victory where that player is voted Super Bowl MVP, how much would you trade for the right to pick that player?  A #1?  Two #1s?  Your entire draft?  Two drafts?

At the end of the day, it comes down to whether you believe that Luck is what they think he is.  If you don't, then you shouldn't trade for him at all.  If you do, what kind of value can you assign to a John Elway or a Tom Brady?  They are franchise-changing players.

[MikeO]

If there actually is a team with four first-rounders in their mind, it won't matter a whole lot where the other team is picking this year.

As for whether or not someone would actually do it, I'll repeat a hypothetical question that I've asked other people in real life:

If you could know, in advance, that drafting player x will definitely result in one Super Bowl victory where that player is voted Super Bowl MVP, how much would you trade for the right to pick that player?  A #1?  Two #1s?  Your entire draft?  Two drafts?

At the end of the day, it comes down to whether you believe that Luck is what they think he is.  If you don't, then you shouldn't trade for him at all.  If you do, what kind of value can you assign to a John Elway or a Tom Brady?  They are franchise-changing players.

Yep! And lets be honest if the Colts had never taken Peyton Manning they would still be playing in the RCA Dome. If the Broncos didn't acquire John Elway odds are they would still be at the old Mile High Stadium. It's the stuff like that you can't put a price on. A once in a generation player not only will win for you but they build up your franchises overall value in many ways.

[JVides]

I could buy the 4 first rounder theory, simply because the contract for the #1 overall pick won't involve $50 M in guarantees (or whatever the number would be).  That signing bonus used to be the deterrent for many teams.  Now, the combination of "once in a generation can't-miss" and friendly rookie contract rules could very well make the #1 pick extremely expensive.  I think if the price were 4 first rounders, I'd swallow hard and...probably do it. 

I figure it this way:  under the old system, if you guessed wrong, the contract killed your team.  In the new system, if you guess wrong, the loss of 4 first rounders kills your team.  The risk is the same.  If he's your guy, you go get him.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If there actually is a team with four first-rounders in their mind, it won't matter a whole lot where the other team is picking this year.

Yes it will. 

Take a look at a standard draft value table. 

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

The difference between #1 and #2 is 400 points.  Which is equal to a mid second round pick.

The difference between #1 and #32 is 2410 point. The 21st pick overall is worth 800 points. 

Granted the number one pick is worth more this year. 

So lets pretend the Jets win the superbowl but Sanchez suffers a carreer ending injury during the fourth quarter.  Lets also assume the Jets get there not on the basis of the Mark, but because they have a really good defense and running game. 

Lets assume the Colts have the first pick overall.  The Dolphins the second.  Lets also assume Peyton is 100% healthy.

Colts receive two offers and only two offers:  Jets and Dolphins:

Dolphins offer pick #2 (2600 points) and next years first (worth somewhere between 590 points if the Dolphins win the superbowl and 3000 points if they get worse) min of 3190 points and that assumes that the Dolphins win the Superbowl with a rookie QB even though QB isn't the only problem the Dolphins have.

The Jets offer #32 (590 points) oveall and 2013, 2014 and 2015 first round picks.  (each worth between 590 and 3000 points).  However, if the Colts believe that the Jets defense, running game an elite QB means the Jets will be making the playoffs for the next 3 years then each of those three picks are worth less 800 points or less.  590 + 800 +800 +800 = 2990.

Odds are what ever team trades for Luck is not likely to have high 1st round picks in the future (that is why it might take four of them) so the known value of this years first round pick is very very important. 

[Spider-Dan]

Hoodie, trying to predict what a team's draft position will be two, three, and four years from now is complete and utter folly.  Allow me to demonstrate:

NYG: 12th in 2005, then 25th, 20th, and 32nd in following years
ATL: 17th in 2002, then 23th, 8th, and 27th in following years
IND: 4th in 1999, then 22nd, 11th, and 24th in following years

And I'm not sure that I buy the argument that lacking a first-round pick for the next three years means that your team will be extra awesome.  Luck may wind up being good eventually, but on a bottomfeeder team missing three years of #1s?  I don't think that's exactly the recipe for short-term success.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Hoodie, trying to predict what a team's draft position will be two, three, and four years from now is complete and utter folly.  Allow me to demonstrate:

Yes, very difficult to predict.  So really don't know what the picks might be worth. 

Median value is 975. If we use that value we would get......

2nd pick overall this year = 32nd pick overall + 975 +975 + a mid 4th round pick.

But Spider I made a major mistake in my prior analysis....alas a 2012 1st round pick is not equal to a 2013 1st round pick and a 2013 1st round pick is not equal to a 2014th. 

Generally a future pick is worth one round less than than the current round.  For example for a very late 1st round pick in 2011 the Saints traded a future 1st round pick of unknown value + a late second round pick.

So if we go by that and use the medium values

2013 first round pick = 2012 2nd round pick = 187.5 pts
2014 first round pick = 2012 3rd round pick = 113.5 pts
2015 first round pick = 2012 4th round pick = 34.25

So 2nd pick overall in 2012 > 3rd pick overall in 2012 + unknown 2013 first round pick + unknown 2014 first round pick + unknown 2015 first round pick + unknown 2016 first round pick.

So if the Dolphins have the second pick overall and offer that plus there current third second round pick there offer will have more point value than the team who is picking third overall offer 4 firsts and 4 seconds.