Will Green Bay go 16-0?

[EKnight]

I believe ESPN recently analyzed this and determined that Brees' 2009 was the best year of any QB they could find... even better than Brady's 07.

They need to reanalyze, then. In addition to starting the season with a eight consecutive games with a passer rating of at least 110.0 here are his "on pace" numbers vs. some of the all time records. If he finishes how he started, he is going to shatter a handful of them, and easily surpass Brees 2009.

NFL Single-Season Quarterback Records and Rodgers' current pace:

Record             Owner         Year      Number      Rodgers' 2011 Pace
Passing Yds:    Dan Marino 1984     5,084          5,238
Passing TDs:   Tom Brady   2007       50             48
QB Rating:       Manning      2004     121.1         129.1
Completion %: Brees          2009      70.6%        72.5%
Total Offense:  Brees          2009      4,976        5,492
TDs Accounted Brady          2007        52            52



-EK

[Spider-Dan]

Rodgers 2011:
Completion %- 72.9
Passing yards- 2869
Pass TDs- 28
Total yards- 3017
Total TDs- 30

Brady 2007 (through 9 games):
Completion %- 73.2
Passing yards- 2686
Pass TDs- 33
Total yards- 2725
Total TDs- 35

Rodgers has more passing yards and rushing yards, while Brady had a better comp. % and 5 more TDs.  Oh, and in Brady's 10th game in 2007?  31/39, 373yds, 5 TDs.  So I doubt Rodgers will make up any ground through 10 games.

The point is, when you extrapolate early season results to 16 games, you frequently get "record-breaking" numbers.  How many times has a QB been "on pace" to break Marino's yards record?  How many times have they been "on pace" to get more than 48 TDs?  At the end of the season, those stats always slow down.

Hell, right now, Rodgers is on pace to barely beat Marino's yards record (he's on pace to throw for 5,100 yards; I don't know how you came up with 5,238), but both Brady and Brees are on pace to shatter Marino's yards record (Brady 5,390, Brees 5,321).  Do you seriously believe Tom Brady is going to better Marino's 27-year-old record by over 300 yards?

[EKnight]

Yes, it's easy to extrapolate numbers early. 3-4 weeks in is early. 9 weeks into a season, with these kinds of numbers, doesn't give me any reason to believe he will slow down. This season has to be included in the "all-time" discussion right now, and if he finishes, it will be the most prolific season by a QB in a single year. -EK

[tepop84]

I believe ESPN recently analyzed this and determined that Brees' 2009 was the best year of any QB they could find... even better than Brady's 07.

Was that using their god awful Total qbr.  Don't believe anything from espn.

[Pappy13]

Not to speak for MikeO, but cross-era comparisons may be fun for some, but they're pretty useless. The comparison here has to be other 'recent' quarterbacks. I'd go as far back as Warner and The Greatest Show on Turf (so late 90s) -- any earlier and it just becomes meaningless, IMHO.

Well I think he invited the comparison when he said that he was playing the best any QB has ever played.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Regarding Brees being on pace to break Marino's record.  He is....but so is Brady.

Brees has more total yards 3,326 than Brady 3,032, but the Saints have played one more game and are now on bye.  By Sunday night Brady could be ahead of Brees. 

Patriots also have a pretty weak schedule coming up.  Saints is quite a bit harder.  OTOH, NE has plenty of games outside in the Northeast which can make the passing game harder. The Saints remaining schedule is mostly in domes only game outside is in Tenn. 

[Spider-Dan]

Hoodie, I pointed that out already:  if you think 10 weeks is an accurate representation of what post-week-17 stats will look like, both Brady and Brees will shatter Marino's yardage record.

Oh, and through 9 games in 2007:  Brady was on pace to throw 58 TDs.  That didn't exactly go as planned, either.

[fyo]

9 weeks into a season, with these kinds of numbers, doesn't give me any reason to believe he will slow down.

Passing numbers almost always decline in December. Weather being the main culprit. Green Bay has one heck of a 'cold weather' end to the season with 5 of their last 6 games (played Nov. 24 - Jan. 1) outdoors in cold weather stadiums (Detroit, NY, GB, (KC), GB, GB). A bit of inclement weather and Rodgers' stats will take a big hit.

This season has to be included in the "all-time" discussion right now

I don't think anyone is questioning its place in the discussion (right now).

[Guru-In-Vegas]

I REALLY like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

If there's a team (besides the niners) to break all of the Dolphins' and Marino's records I'd like for it to be the Packers.  They are the ones who should be labeled "America's Team" ... although I feel like it's a crap label regardless.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Hoodie, I pointed that out already:  if you think 10 weeks is an accurate representation of what post-week-17 stats will look like, both Brady and Brees will shatter Marino's yardage record.

Oh, and through 9 games in 2007:  Brady was on pace to throw 58 TDs.  That didn't exactly go as planned, either.

Your point about Brady not staying on pace is more relevent to Brady than it is to Brees.  While everyone loves to pontificated about the difference in eras/rules, most people ignore the biggest factor:field conditions.  Every QB plays better in a dome or nice weather than outdoors in bad weather.  Brady's yards will likely drop as the season goes on as the weather turns nasty both at home and on the road.  Brees won't have the same problem. 

By way of example Peyton Manning plays better indoors than he does outdoors 98.7 vs. 90.8.  Tom Brady also playes better indoors than outdoors 103.1 vs. 95.0. 

If you compare TB vs PM indoors you see that Brady is significantly better 103.1 vs. 98.7 and if you compare them outdoors Brady comes out signficantly higher 95.0 vs 90.8.  However, overall the edge is slight 95.7 vs. 94.9.  This is because Tom Brady plays most of his games outdoors where it is harder to throw and Peyton plays most of his games indoors where it is easier.

Same deal when comparing Jim Kelly to Marino. Quite possibly if Marino was in Buffalo and Kelly was in Miami, Kelly would have broken multiple records and Marino would be an after thought.  Both the same era, but one played in nice weather one played in horrible weather.  Or comparing Brees to Rodgers.  Lot harder to complete a pass Green Bay than in the dome in NO. 

[Pappy13]

Same deal when comparing Jim Kelly to Marino. Quite possibly if Marino was in Buffalo and Kelly was in Miami, Kelly would have broken multiple records and Marino would be an after thought.

Didn't Kelly play on Turf? How often were the field conditions really a hinderance? Marino played on grass and in the rain that was probably a bigger hinderance then Kelly playing in the cold.

The truth is that Kelly had a number of great seasons, though not quite as good as Marino. At best if you switched the 2, Kelly would have maybe broken a few more records and Marino would have won a couple of Super Bowls.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Didn't Kelly play on Turf? How often were the field conditions really a hinderance? Marino played on grass and in the rain that was probably a bigger hinderance then Kelly playing in the cold.

The truth is that Kelly had a number of great seasons, though not quite as good as Marino. At best if you switched the 2, Kelly would have maybe broken a few more records and Marino would have won a couple of Super Bowls.

Turf vs grass is not much of a factor in the passing game more of a factor for the rushing game and then it tends to hurt the defense and help the offense.

Passing game: 1. wind, 2 rain/snow, 3 cold.  While wind and rain does occur in south florida not with the frequence it does in the North.  Florida does have huricanes but that would cancel a game not screw up the passing stats.   

[BigDaddyFin]

Kelly did play on turf.  What Kelly had that Marino didn't was a running game.   

Both guys ended up with some pretty innovative shit.  Kelly ran the no-huddle and made the 3WR set commonplace.  Thurman was also the prototype scatback in that he could take outlet passes and turn them into big plays.  Andre Reed was able for most of his career to thrive catching passes in traffic over the middle.
It worked in the snow and it worked in the cold because they didn't have to throw it 30 yards downfield.  Go back and look at the 1990 playoff game.  Reed and Thomas ate us alive and if Kelly threw the ball over 30 yards more than three times the whole game, I'd be shocked. 

Marino scored a lot of points because he could throw balls through windows that no one knew were there. 

If you switch the two, Marino probably has two Superbowl rings and maybe Kelly is still a top tier quarterback. 

[Pappy13]

Turf vs grass is not much of a factor in the passing game more of a factor for the rushing game and then it tends to hurt the defense and help the offense.

I disagree. The game is faster on turf and WR's can make quicker cuts, both help WR's seperate from DB's better. And yes the DB's can also run faster on turf and cut quicker, but they are always reacting to WR's so it still favors the WR's.

Passing game: 1. wind, 2 rain/snow, 3 cold.  While wind and rain does occur in south florida not with the frequence it does in the North.  Florida does have huricanes but that would cancel a game not screw up the passing stats.   

I think rain/snow interfere with passing stats more than either wind or cold do and it rains plenty in South Florida. Don't get much snow, but there aren't any more games played in snow than their are in the rain. Still think it's pretty much a wash between Kelly and Marino.

[BigDaddyFin]

^^^
Turf IS faster.  But it's faster for both teams.  It's very hard to describe.  It's like asphalt vs. concrete.  Everyone's faster on it.