Torn on Manning

[Landshark]

My ONLY concern with Manning is the potential injury situation.  It makes me think Matt Flynn would actually be the less risky pick up.  (Would love RG3, but that ain't gonna happen.)

Not only is Matt Flynn less risky in terms of injuries, but he also is familiar with Joe Philbin's system.  Peyton Manning is not.  Flynn is less risky because he is a better fit.

Not torn at all.  Sell the farm for him.  Give him whatever he wants, and don't let him leave Miami without autographing a deal first.  Address everything else through the draft.

Don't let this be another Drew Brees situation.

With Manning's injury, this has the potential of being another Daunte Culpepper situation.

[Brian Fein]

Flynn is more likely to be a total bum.   The guy has 2 NFL starts.  Less risky?  He's unproven if ever there was one.

How anyone would want to pass up a future HOF QB for a guy with 2 starts is beyond me.

Flynn is the next in line for guys that were supposed to be good and never panned out.  No thanks.  Peyton is the guy.

[stinkfish]

The reason why I don't want Manning is because I don't think that he should play football ever again. I'm sure that he kind of likes being able to walk. That being said, if we do end up with him, chances are that we'd also end up with Reggie Wayne, and maybe even Jeff Saturday. Assuming that he has a nice, healthy 3, or 4 year term with the Phins, the addition of one or both of his free agent teammates would be a god thing for Miami. I really don't know yet if I'd prefer Manning or moving up in the draft to take a QB, the possible addition of both Manning and Wayne intrigues me.

[Brian Fein]

Manning = "free" (don't have to give up something but money to get him)
Moving up in the draft = costing you a crapload of draft picks

Would rather bring in Manning and fill in draft picks in other positions of need, like safety or RB?

[CF DolFan]

I'm with Spider. Time to take a different approach. If we sacrifice and hit with RGIII then long term that might be better but it would be fun to have some immediate results. Even if we don't win it will be fun as long as Peyton is playing.

I liked this quote from Wayne today ...

Meanwhile, Wayne, Manning’s longtime teammate, told WQAM’s Michael Irvin that playing with Manning and Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall “can be truly be dangerous if they put us all together. The league might not want to see that. South Florida is already hot out here. You put us together, it would be burning up. I would love it. I’m totally available.”


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/08/2681590_p2/miami-dolphins-very-confident.html#storylink=cpy

[el diablo]

Its not a popular idea, but I would pass on Manning. If Miami had Seattle money, that might change my mind. QB is not the only problem, just the most expensive. Manning alone would swallow up all of their cap space. You start adding Wayne or Saturday, and others are being cut. A healthy Manning would be worth it. But he's not. Sorry. And sticking him behind a worse line than last year is suicide.

[EKnight]

Regarding cap space, it wouldn't be difficult AT ALL to get Manning, Wayne, and still have room left. According to multiple reports, the Dolphins will have approximately $112 million committed against the 2012 NFL salary cap. While the exact cap number hasn’t been released yet, it’s expected to be in the neighborhood of $120-125 million.
 
That leaves $8-$13 million in cap space heading into free agency, plyus the "carry over" space from the 2011 season, $9 million, into the 2012 salary cap.
 
So, in total, Miami has roughly $17-$22 million in cap space as free agency opens in 2012. Take out about $5 million for rookies, and you have $12-$17 million in cap space, even without potentially restructuring some of the high dollar cap hits they have currently (Jake Long, Brandon Marshall, and Karlos Dansby all have cap hits above $11 million for the 2012 season. All three could convert some of their money into other types of bonuses, clearing additional cap room for the 2012 season and future seasons.).

So how would a contract for Manning impact the Dolphins’ salary cap situation? Hypothetically:

* $15 million signing bonus
 * $5 million base salary in 2012
 * $10 million in easily-reachable performance incentives (playing 10 percent of the team’s snaps, throwing for 100 yards in a game, throwing one touchdown in a game, etc.)
 * $8 million in gameday bonuses ($500,000 for every game he is active)

If that was the case:
Total cash received by Manning in 2012: $38 million
Salary cap charge: $10 million ($5 million base salary, $5 million signing bonus (1/3 of total))


If Manning achieves the $18 million in incentives at the end of the season, let’s say it puts the Dolphins $9 million over the 2012 salary cap. In that case, the Dolphins will take a $9 million salary cap penalty for 2013.

This, or course, leaves between 2 and 7 million in cap space, without any type of restructuring by current players. What is Reggie Wayne looking for? Reports are, comparable to the three-years, $15 million deal his former UM teammate, Santana Moss, got from the Washington Redskins last year.

That deal included a $5 million signing bonus and $6 million in guarantees from the Redskins. The cap hit on that deal would be about $2.67 million in the first season.

Easily achievable, with 5 million left for rookies. Restructuring would open anothe 2-3 million for other free agents. Bottom line is that they could bring in two pro-bowlers and have a legit shot at winning at a level not seen since Marino for 2-4 years. How do you pass on that???

Sources: Sun Sentinal, Palm Beach Post, CBS Miami. -EK

[Dave Gray]

Update:

I'm on board with Manning.  Thinking about it, since it's only money and not a trade or cap hit that's going into the long future, I'm for it.  It'll give me something to enjoy on the weekends.

[Pappy13]

A healthy Manning would be worth it. But he's not. Sorry. And sticking him behind a worse line than last year is suicide.

So you would change your mind if he was totally healthy for game 1? What if he is? It certainly looks like he will be based on current progress. His neck is already fine. Been cleared to play by doctors. He's no more at risk to hurt the neck than any other QB in the league including Matt Flynn. The arm strength is the ONLY question now and recent reports have shown significant progress. It's only March. He still has 6 months to be ready for game 1. There's no guarantee, but at this point the odds that he'll be ready are better than the odds that he won't.

[Spider-Dan]

Peyton is arguably the biggest free-agent prospect in the history of the league.  If he wants to come to Miami, you sign him.  If it turns out that he can't get healthy, then you lose some money on an incentive-laden contract and you get to cut ties with him quickly.

If Flynn doesn't pan out, Miami will be stuck with him for at least 2-3 years and will take a huge cap hit when they cut him.
If RG3 doesn't pan out, that's three-ish high value draft picks down the drain.

Conversely, look at the upside.  A healthy Manning immediately makes this team a championship contender; we already know what he can do.  Flynn's ceiling might be anywhere from AJ Feeley to Kevin Kolb to Matt Hasselbeck, but it's unknown.  RG3 could be Cam Newton, Matt Stafford or David Carr.  We don't know.

What I will say is that the argument that MIA might only contend for 2-3 years with Peyton but could contend for a decade with Flynn or RG3... that argument is greedy and stupid.  The Dolphins haven't won a championship in nearly 40 years; if Peyton wins exactly one Super Bowl with the Dolphins, then picking him up was a good decision, period.

I know this is a popular trend in South Florida, but before you worry about winning "five, six, seven" titles, try worrying about winning ONE.

[Pappy13]

What I will say is that the argument that MIA might only contend for 2-3 years with Peyton but could contend for a decade with Flynn or RG3... that argument is greedy and stupid.  The Dolphins haven't won a championship in nearly 40 years; if Peyton wins exactly one Super Bowl with the Dolphins, then picking him up was a good decision, period.

I know this is a popular trend in South Florida, but before you worry about winning "five, six, seven" titles, try worrying about winning ONE.

Agree with everything except that if Peyton wins exactly one it's a good decision, it's a GREAT decision.  I'll take competing for the division with the Patriots for the next 3 years and perhaps watching meaningful games in December. If we get that out of Peyton it would be a good decision.

[el diablo]

At best, they are a playoff contender with Peyton. He didn't play last year. He had 4 operations in the last 18 months. His doctors say he's OK to play. An incentive laden contract gets them through this year. Those incentives count next season. Why is that important? Because less than 10 wins won't make the playoffs this year. Peyton doesn't block or play defense. If QB were the only issue, then I would seriously consider it. Peyton didn't play a down last season. Not one. That matters when you're 36. If he signs, I will support it. If he doesn't, I won't be disappointed. No matter how they structure his contract, this season isn't the one that you need to keep in mind. Its next season when those "incentives" truly handcuff the team.

[Cathal]

I'm pretty sure we can mostly agree that while there are definite holes on this team, the QB issue is the biggest. You get the right guy in there, then you can deal with the deficiencies of some positions. Look at what we did with Matt Moore. If you stuck someone like Peyton in there at the start of this past season, we would for sure have been in the playoffs.

[MikeO]

Put a quality QB on Miami and this team wins 10 games, wild card team at worse!

Defense was 6th in points allowed

The o-line is fixable a lot easier than most think. With Jon Jerry coming on and Murtha coming back its not impossible to fix easily. At most they need to add 1 guy.

The WR's are good (not great) add Wayne then the unit becomes great!

Bush/Thomas is a nice tandem. I believe in Daniel Thomas still. Give him an offseason program and some OTA's to get ready and I think he will be fine. With no offseason and his early injury he started off behind the 8 ball last year.

The defense has few holes. 1 pass rusher, 1 CB, and a safety. And honestly, I would ignore CB because there are few if any quality CB's in this league anymore, nobody covers anyone. The rules make it impossible. So why spend money there.

These people who say pass on Manning to fill all these other holes, there aren't that many other holes to fill in reality! QB is the only one that matters too!

[Spider-Dan]

He didn't play last year. He had 4 operations in the last 18 months. [...]  Peyton didn't play a down last season. Not one.

So I'm guessing you also agreed with the decision not to pursue Michael Vick?