How Important is College Experience at QB?

[MaineDolFan]

Man.

So in this situation you have to be VERY sure he's going at #3 and Cleveland is going to take him.  Otherwise, why not roll the dice and try to work out something for the #4 pick and try to lower the price?

Either way, I don't think I would trade THIS year's 2 & 3.  The draft is too deep.  I would consider "playing ball" and trading this year's overall 8 (clearly) and this year's 3rd round pick, and make the second round conditional.  I would also want something coming back, like a 4th.

[Fins4ever]

Good god I hope not. It is a stretch to take him at 8 for many people (myself included). Now someone thinks Miami should give up three players for him? Baaaaaaaaaad idea. -EK

I could not agree more. I like Polian but am starting to see why he is unemployed. Why do sportwriters continue to write about the opinion from someone that was fired?? lol

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I completely disagree that Tannehill and Brady are alike. I have no clue why Brady fell to the 6th round, but it wasn't JUST because of lack of tape on him.

You are correct.  Tannehill and Brady are opposites.  Brady's stock fell because of less than spectaculer proday and combine (realitive to his actual on field performance in college) Tanehill's rose because his proday and combine performance.

I have noticed a pattern what someone does in actual games in college is a better indicator of how they do in the pros than how they perform in the non-contact drills of proday and combine.  

[mecadonzilla]

I think it would be a major stretch to trade up to #3 for Tannehill.  I would imagine you'd have to give up at least a 2nd and another pick in a future draft (maybe more) to move that high.  That's reaching.

However, if Philban/Sherman are sold that they MUST have him, I would have to trust their judgement on the move.  I don't think anyone else is in better position to really know this guy.  Hopefully, Sherman isn't too close to the QB to interfere with his decision making.

[Pappy13]

Bill Polian is for Miami trading up to #3 for you know who. Giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick

That's easy for Bill Polian to say, he doesn't have to live with the decision if Tannehill doesn't pan out.  No one who ACTUALLY has a say in the draft is going to do that. Draft picks are FAR too valuable now that the salaries have been adjusted to just throw them away with reckless abandon.

If Miami were going to move up, I think it would be take Blackmon, not Tannehill.

I think Miami should stand pat. I still don't believe that Cleveland is gonna take Tannehill, I think they'll end up with Richardson or Blackmon and the only thing you have to worry about then is someone jumping over you to take Tannehill, but again I think draft picks are too valuable and no one is just going to give away draft picks to jump up and no one is gonna move down for nothing. Someone would have to be absolutely convinced that Tannehill is a franchise QB and I just don't see that. He's not a sure thing. It makes the most sense for Miami because of Sherman. He's gonna install an offense that Tannehill is familiar with. The terminology is gonna be similar. Tannehill has a much better chance of hitting the ground running with Miami then with anyone else. It just all makes sense for Miami. It doesn't make as much sense for ANYONE else.

That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[MikeO]

That's easy for Bill Polian to say, he doesn't have to live with the decision if Tannehill doesn't pan out.  No one who ACTUALLY has a say in the draft is going to do that. Draft picks are FAR too valuable now that the salaries have been adjusted to just throw them away with reckless abandon.

If Miami were going to move up, I think it would be take Blackmon, not Tannehill.

I think Miami should stand pat. I still don't believe that Cleveland is gonna take Tannehill, I think they'll end up with Richardson or Blackmon and the only thing you have to worry about then is someone jumping over you to take Tannehill, but again I think draft picks are too valuable and no one is just going to give away draft picks to jump up and no one is gonna move down for nothing. Someone would have to be absolutely convinced that Tannehill is a franchise QB and I just don't see that. He's not a sure thing. It makes the most sense for Miami because of Sherman. He's gonna install an offense that Tannehill is familiar with. The terminology is gonna be similar. Tannehill has a much better chance of hitting the ground running with Miami then with anyone else. It just all makes sense for Miami. It doesn't make as much sense for ANYONE else.

That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

I see no reason to trade up for Blackmon. He is going to be a "GOOD" WR but probably not a "GREAT" one. In a draft deep at WR's why trade up for a guy who might never be an elite WR.

Hell take Michael Floyd at 8 and you are getting essentially the same type of player as Blackmon

[MikeO]

Man.

So in this situation you have to be VERY sure he's going at #3 and Cleveland is going to take him.  Otherwise, why not roll the dice and try to work out something for the #4 pick and try to lower the price?

Either way, I don't think I would trade THIS year's 2 & 3.  The draft is too deep.  I would consider "playing ball" and trading this year's overall 8 (clearly) and this year's 3rd round pick, and make the second round conditional.  I would also want something coming back, like a 4th.

I agree with that. You only make that move up to get him if you are totally sold he is the answer and can't lose him under any circumstance. Otherwise if they feel the need to come out of Rd 1 with a QB they could slide back from 8 and take Weeden in the 10-15 range if need be. That is if they aren't totally sold on Tannehill or don't want to move up.

[Spider-Dan]

I think it would be worth it to trade up exactly one spot with JAX (before the draft) as insurance.  Here's why.

Draft evaluations seem to indicate that there are 6 elite players in this draft: Luck, RG3, Kalil, Blackmon, Richardson, and Claiborne.  If CLE (or someone else) takes Tannehill, the #7 pick (JAX) will be in position to get one of those six.  If no one takes Tannehill, MIA will be in perfect position to get him.

Based on the draft value chart, MIA could trade the #8 overall pick and CHI's 2012 3rd rounder (pick #73) to JAX for their #7 overall and their 4th rounder (pick #101).

[Pappy13]

I have noticed a pattern what someone does in actual games in college is a better indicator of how they do in the pros than how they perform in the non-contact drills of proday and combine.

While I agree that college production is a better indicator of NFL success than the pro-day or the combine is, I think it's still a pretty poor indicator. All college production really shows is potential. But potential is just that, potential. It doesn't translate into success and nothing really does. Some guys are just late bloomers and it "clicks" when they get to the NFL. Other's peak early and never have the success in the pros that they had in college. Some are just miscast in their role on their college team or perhaps are stuck behind another player and don't really get a chance to showcase their talent and the opposite can occur where they are in the perfect role in college and really shine and then are miscast when they get to the pros. Still others it becomes a physical problem, where maybe they are big enough or fast enough for college, but not big enough or fast enough for the pros. Still others look to be too small for the NFL like Zach Thomas and nobody really expects much of them despite playing well in college and then they go onto the NFL and excel despite their size defeciencies. The list is nearly endless as to why some guys excel in the pros and some don't. Teams do their best to try to pick out the guys that will do well, but at the end of the day, you don't really know until they strap on the pads and go out and there and start playing.

[MikeO]

Reading the Miami Herald it looks like Miami has put all of their eggs in the Tannehill or Osweiler basket. If they can't (or don't want) get Tannehill in Rd 1 they will take Osweiler in Rd 2. Those are the only two QB's they have put any time and work into.

Osweiler really scares the hell out of me. If you thought Henne sucked this guy is his clone. Osweiler was beyond terrible in the Red Zone in college. Around 40% completion % in the redzone. He left school early not because he is ready for the NFL but because ASU fired their coach and he didn't want to go through a coaching change and run the"read option" offense when they hired the new coach and that is his style.

Some of you are upset that Tannehill was a 2nd round grade at one point and now might go in Rd 1. Osweiller is currently a 4th round grade that will go early 2nd. 

This is my fear, that if they don't get Tannehill they waste a  2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB who sucks and they take a QB for the sake of taking a QB who has no potential to ever be good. And Osweiler would fit that category.

Also saw on NFL Network last night that Cleveland is spending alot of time with Weeden now and they kind of like him. They like he is older and could come and in be ready right away.

[EKnight]

they take a QB for the sake of taking a QB who has no potential to ever be good.

This is my fear about Tannehill- with the added bonus of wasting a FIRST ROUND TOP TEN pick on him. I just don't see what everyone else sees in him, and now there's talk of trading MORE picks to move up and get him? -EK

[MaineDolFan]

Tossing on my rose colored glasses for one second:

I do suppose luck has to be on our side sooner or later, yes?  Eventually Miami should hit on ONE of these guys. 

[Fins4ever]

I see no reason to trade up for Blackmon. He is going to be a "GOOD" WR but probably not a "GREAT" one. In a draft deep at WR's why trade up for a guy who might never be an elite WR.

Hell take Michael Floyd at 8 and you are getting essentially the same type of player as Blackmon

It may be just me, but moving up for a WR scares the bejesus out of me. Not only is the bust rate second only to a QB, but it seems like 75% of the head cases are WR's. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I do suppose luck has to be on our side sooner or later, yes?  Eventually Miami should hit on ONE of these guys. 

It was in 1983. Sixth QB selected in the draft became a hall of famer.  Not many franchises have that kind of luck twice. 

Pats have gotten lucky once.  Can't really call the Colts selecting a future Hall of famer with the 1st pick overall to be "lucky".  Montana as a 3rd round pick was.

[Pappy13]

It was in 1983. Sixth QB selected in the draft became a hall of famer.

I'll settle for better than any of the QB's Miami has had since Marino. Is that asking too much?