Why This Year's Dolphin Team May Exceed Expectations.

[Doc-phin]

I have been really thinking about this team and the changes being made.  I am starting to feel much more comfortable with raising my expectations a bit from previous years.  I am not really looking at anything more than a reasonable shot at a Wildcard spot, so don't think I am saying we are Superbowl bound or anything.

Let me start with the very few negatives.  I am worried about our safeties and I am worried about the amount of time it will take to become proficient with the new offense and defense.  I am not as worried about our QB situation, but it is still a concern because of it's level of importance in the NFL.

I am not worried about the physicality or speed of our safeties but I am worried about their intellect and communication skills.  I THINK that Jones will be good at strong safety and I believe Clemons is fast enough at free safety but one of these guys has to be someone who can get the job done when it comes to aligning the backfield and avoiding blown coverages.  The jury is out for me on this one, and I am not even sure about our depth at the position.

The positives...

- Let's start with receivers since I am sure most will wonder why they aren't on my negative list.  Chad Johnson solves more problems than most would think.  He really doesn't even have to be all that great and he still solves a major problem by getting Hartline back in front of the other teams second best corner.  While Chad, Brian, Legedu and Bess don't necessarilly strike fear into opponents, they are very adequate for what we will try to do which is run the ball, throw to running backs and throw to tight ends.  We have young receivers that are ready for play time in Marlon Moore and Roberto Wallace.  We even have some wildcards in Gates, Cunningham, Mathews and Pruitt.

- This brings me to our tight ends, which may be the best group of tight ends we have had here in a very long time.  Fasano and Clay are good enough on their own but throw in a guy with height and speed like Egnew and this group has some real potential to cause trouble for defenses.  Fasano and Clay are about as well balanced as you can get.  It will be nearly impossible to know if their personel groupings will be with the intentions of passing or blocking.  They are absolutely perfect for the play action game and draw plays.  Egnew could be best used in 2 minute and 4 minute packages and offers a good change up against certain teams.

- Our running back group is deep and balanced.  I particularly like that we have a guy like Lamar Miller that can step in and do similar things to what Bush can do if Bush gets nicked up.  Bush got better as the year went along last year, but this year we have a full offseason so I believe he will get an earlier jump.  The zone run scheme fits our backs well and our O-line is better than last year now that Pouncey is year 2 and either Martin or Murtha are way better than Columbo.  I felt very good about Daniel Thomas last year with the chances that he got.  Soft tissue injuries were rampant around the league last year and Thomas should be able to avoid the hamstring this year.

-  That brings me to O-line.  Is there any doubt this group will be much improved?  No Columbo.  No in and out of game Vernon Carey.  This unit has good depth and we could very well have legit probowl players at center and both tackle spots.

- Our defensive front is looking very good.  We have great size in the middle with Starks and Soliai.  Odrick and Vernon are very versitile.  Wake can do what he does best now in rushing the passer.  Misi knows how to put his hand in the dirt and hold the edge.

- On the linebacker side of things we also look very good.  Dansby is just as well suited as an MLB as he is an ILB.  Burnette is a great MLB backup and should be good as an ILB in the nickel.  Guyton is a solid outside linebacker.  Misi will probably play mostly strong side linebacker and should be good at that.  Wake will probably play a mix of weakside linebacker and DE, depending on the package and should be able to accel at both.

- Corner back is actually pretty solid too.  Smith and Davis are both good corners and neither of them are a weak link.  Richard Marshall is a very solid corner pick up.  But the interesting thing is that Carroll and Wilson both improved dramatically with play time.  We all recall how they struggled in those early games, but they actually played very well once they got a few games under their belts.  Because of the experience they got, I truly believe they give us adequate depth at the position.

- Special Teams - Obviously Fields and Carpenter have been awesome the past couple of years and we have no reason to believe they will be otherwise this year.  On top of that, we retained the special teams coach which lead this unit out of previous years in an abyss.  Last year we had blocked kicks and very solid return averages.  Our punt and kick coverage was pretty good.  I have no reason to believe we will regress in any of these areas and in fact I think our return game personell is an upgrade this year.

Finally we get to our Quarterbacks.  The truth is that none of our quarterbacks are bad and none of them are great.  We have 2-3 solid quarterback options depending on Tannehill's adjustment to pro speed and defensive reads.  With a good run game and a good defense, Moore or Garrard are good enough to get us enough wins to have a legit shot at a Wildcard.  I realize I am not giving specifics as to why they are good enough but we have seen Garrard do it and we have seen Moore perform well enough to do it.  We may not have an obvious probowler on the roster, but we do have good quality and great depth.  Most teams will have to go into 3-4 games a year with their backup and I think we are as well suited to handle that storm as anyone in the league.

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So keep your heads up guys, I think this year will be better than the last two!  And I don't mean just a little bit better.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Being pretty much everyone expects them to come in 4th in the division, "may exceed expectations" is not really going out on a limb. 

[EKnight]

^^Agreed. They won six games last season, traded away one of their only true weapons (and a Pro Bowler) on offense, didn't fix the biggest issues (QB or secondary; obviously I'm not convinced that Tannehill is going to make a difference this year), and every other team in the division- at least on paper- hot much better. -EK

[Doc-phin]

Being pretty much everyone expects them to come in 4th in the division, "may exceed expectations" is not really going out on a limb. 

I defined it as being in legit contention for a wildcard spot.

BTW - How exactly do people figure the Jets are any better than us this year?  I agree that the Bills look better on paper, but their track record says otherwise.

I see people buying into the hype of the Bills with their accuisitions, but I haven't seen it with the Jets.  I think expectation is for us to be about the same as the Jets and neither of us to be more than a game or two behind the Bills.

[Tenshot13]

Mia 12-4 this year.  Take it to the bank

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

My prediction for the AFCE

1. NE win the division (#2 seed for the Conf)
2 Bills second place in the division (goes into week 17 needing help to get a WC spot, but doesn't get it)
3. Jets 3rd place for the division, but Rex Ryan still manages to be the most quoted of 32 NFL coaches.  Tebow set a record for most jersey sold by a back up QB.
4. Dolphins secure a top ten pick for the 2013 draft. 

[EKnight]

I defined it as being in legit contention for a wildcard spot.

BTW - How exactly do people figure the Jets are any better than us this year?  I agree that the Bills look better on paper, but their track record says otherwise.

I see people buying into the hype of the Bills with their accuisitions, but I haven't seen it with the Jets.  I think expectation is for us to be about the same as the Jets and neither of us to be more than a game or two behind the Bills.

Easy- the Jets were 2 games better than Miami last year and they made a solid move to fix their worst offensive problem. They were third to LAST in the red zone last year, and they brought in a QB who was the best in the league in the last two seasons at scoring in the red zone. In 70 red zone plays with Tebow at quarterback last season, the Broncos scored 20 touchdowns. That was the highest TD percentage (28.6) of any quarterback with as many plays over the last two seasons. Laugh at the Tebow pick up all you want- it made a team that was already better than Miami, even more improved. -EK
 

[MikeO]

Cherry Picking stats again. The Dolphins defensive stats of 3rd in rush defense and 6th in scoring defense DON'T count. But the Jets Red Zone offense stats counts. CHERRY PICKIN!

The Jets WORST offensive problem was their o-line, it was awful especially the right side. Plus they lost LT and have no running back depth behind Green who is bad to begin with. Unless you count Joe McKnight who stinks

[Cathal]

You don't think Tebow would be a running back? 

[Landshark]

Easy- the Jets were 2 games better than Miami last year and they made a solid move to fix their worst offensive problem.

HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!  My nose is burning!!!!!  I was drinking my coffee this morning and when I read this, I laughed so hard it came right out of my nose!!!!

Tim Tebow is a "solid move" to fix the Jets worst offensive problem??  There's delusion and then there's statements like this. 

[EKnight]

Ok, believe I'm delusional if you want. At the end of the year, I'd love to revisit this thread and see how the predictions panned out, especially given that Miami has odds of winning one LESS game than the Jets. -EK

[EKnight]

Cherry Picking stats again. The Dolphins defensive stats of 3rd in rush defense and 6th in scoring defense DON'T count. But the Jets Red Zone offense stats counts. CHERRY PICKIN!

The Jets WORST offensive problem was their o-line, it was awful especially the right side. Plus they lost LT and have no running back depth behind Green who is bad to begin with. Unless you count Joe McKnight who stinks

How is that cherry picking? No one cares about 3rd/6th whatever when you only win 6 games and cough up 7 fourth quater leads. In fact, what YOU are doing is cheery picking stats to bolster the argument that Miami's average defense is better than it was.

Re. the Jets Oline- The Jets Oline gave up 40 sacks last year- which was middle of the pack, NOT the worst problem. Their red zone offense WAS one of the worst in the league, and the Tebow pick up was specifically made to correct that. -EK

[Landshark]

 

Ok, believe I'm delusional if you want. At the end of the year, I'd love to revisit this thread and see how the predictions panned out, especially given that Miami has odds of winning one LESS game than the Jets. -EK

Mark my words.  We will revisit this.  Tebow is not an NFL quarterback by any means

[EKnight]

He doesn't need to be. All he needs to do is score in the red zone for NY and he improves their team. He was the best red zone QB in the entire league last year. That's an undisputable fact. And his red zone performance was better than anyone for 2 years. Also a fact. -EK

[Brian Fein]

When you have no O-line, you could have 10 Tebow's and it won't matter.  Tebow is nothing more than a glorified running back and he throws like one too.  When he enters the game, stack the line, and watch him run backwards.  Easy pickings.