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Author Topic: Football Outsiders ranks Miami's pass defense 8th  (Read 4703 times)
Spider-Dan
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 06:00:38 pm »

The problem with Miami's pass defense is that it doesn't do well against teams with viable TE's.  If you can solve that problem you're all set.  Games we lose or give up shitloads of passing yards the other team has a TE who is above average. 
Restated for emphasis:

"[Miami's pass defense] is essentially in the middle of the pack in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as in coverage against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs. However, it is sixth against all other wide receivers, which shows both secondary depth and solid fundamental team play."
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BigDaddyFin
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2012, 06:57:59 am »

^^^ I don't get it, Spider.

How can we in the middle of the pack in "adjusted sack rate" (I've been around football in one form or another for 25 years and never heard of such a thing), middle of the pack against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs (essentially everybody who catches the ball) but 6th against all other wide recievers?

Do you have a link so I can read that?
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Hey... what's in the bowl bitch?
fyo
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2012, 08:56:41 am »

How can we in the middle of the pack in "adjusted sack rate" (I've been around football in one form or another for 25 years and never heard of such a thing), middle of the pack against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs (essentially everybody who catches the ball) but 6th against all other wide recievers?

Do you have a link so I can read that?

The stats are from Footballoutsiders.com. They have explanations aplenty. The relevant ones to this discussion are "defensive" and "defensive line".

Sacks: Looking at the total number of sacks isn't particularly relevant, since it doesn't take into account how many opportunities there have been to actually get sacks. That's why we all talk about a quarterbacks completion percentage, not his total number of completed passes. Since you don't get sacks (by definition) on running plays, the "sack ratio" is the ratio of total sacks to pass plays seen by the defense. What FootballOutsiders do is then adjust that by the down, distance and opponent to better enable comparisons between teams. (Technically, their "adjusted sack ratio" is a better predictor of sacks against an opponent than just "sack ratio" -- which is still much better than just using the total number of sacks).

Considering that some teams see more than twice the number of drop-backs as other teams, at the very least we need to look at sack ratio (like completion percentage for QBs) to make any meaningful comparison.

Pass defense: Instead of just looking at the total number of yards a defensive gives up, it can be interesting to look at how many yards have come against the type of receiver. Is it the other teams #1 reciever all the time, suggesting a lack of a #1 cornerback (or scheme to provide support) -- or is it, as has been the case with Miami for the past many years, the TE who inflicts the damage? Footballoutsiders.com take each individual play and assign the pass to either the #1 receiver, the #2 receiver, a TE, a RB, or "other".

As with sacks, it often makes more sense to adjust the yardage for the total number of passing downs (just like we often look at yards/attempt for running backs). Footballoutsiders.com then takes this a step further and adjusts for opponent, down and distance. E.g. it's a lot worse to give up 10 yards on a 1st and 10, than on a 3rd and 15.

Even though we're ranked 8th in total pass defense, the teams are actually clustered quite tightly around the middle of the pack, so the difference between us and "average" is quite small. Our rushing D, on the other hand, is A LOT better than average -- and actually fairly close to #1 (we're ranked 5th).
« Last Edit: November 03, 2012, 08:59:17 am by fyo » Logged
EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2012, 03:23:10 pm »

This will be a fun thread after today's game.
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Cathal
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 03:24:38 pm »

I can see them dropping out of the top ten in just the first half. Lol. Sad
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EKnight
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 03:55:50 pm »

I don't give a crap about what Football Outsiders ranks them. Four different QBs have passed for 300+ yards against them in 7 games, and a rookie is about to go 450 on them. Please. No more talk of this. -EK
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Landshark
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2012, 04:21:29 pm »

After today's game, they should drop out of the top HALF
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2012, 04:30:52 pm »

You guys realize that Miami's defense rank is relative to other teams, right?

ARI also allowed a rookie to pass for 400+ yards (in fact, for a whopping TWO YARDS less than what Luck just did against MIA).  We had two QBs break a 25+ year old passing yardage record in the same season last year.  300 yards is not the achievement it once was... there have been five 400+ yard passing games so far this year (Brees, Freeman, Luck, Romo, Tannehill, plus a 395 from Brady) and one 500+ yard passing game (Eli).

You can talk all you want about how bad Miami's pass defense is, but that's nearly everyone.
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