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Author Topic: Never too early to talk about 2016....  (Read 4622 times)
MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« on: November 11, 2012, 11:03:26 am »

Post your early predictions.

Dems - H. Clinton, J Biden, A. Cummo. 

Reps - Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Jindal, Palin (flirts but doesn't enter), Bloomberg.

General election Clinton over Jindal.
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Sunstroke
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2012, 12:54:50 pm »


Early predictions:

Republicans:
* A middle-aged white male who made a shitload of money in financial arena but has little political experience
* An older white male who can work up a good religious lather
* An ethnic minority male who agrees with everybody

Democrats:
* An older white male DC political veteran with recognizable name
* Hillary Clinton
* An ethnic minority male who agrees with everybody

Hillary Clinton vs A middle-aged white male who made a shitload of money in financial arena but has little political experience

President Hillary Clinton

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Landshark
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2012, 01:52:36 pm »

Reps - Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Jindal, Palin (flirts but doesn't enter), Bloomberg.

You're forgetting their wild card.  Marco Rubio.  Republican Senator from Florida.  He gets the nomination, he'll carry the Latino vote all over the country.  That could have a major, major impact in deciding the race.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2012, 04:48:47 pm »

Post your early predictions.

Dems - H. Clinton, J Biden, A. Cummo. 

Reps - Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Jindal, Palin (flirts but doesn't enter), Bloomberg.

General election Clinton over Jindal.

I think you got the Democrats correct but early favorites for the GOP would have to be Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio. I think Christie burned a lot of bridges in the last week with Republicans. Ryan is popular but I wouldn't be surprised to see two very popular minorities (Jindal and Rubio) on the ticket for Republicans. They carry the GOP, and even the Christian, message but attract minority votes. At the very least they would force everyone to discuss the issues instead of the characters which isn't a bad thing.
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2012, 05:20:36 pm »

I think you got the Democrats correct but early favorites for the GOP would have to be Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio. I think Christie burned a lot of bridges in the last week with Republicans. Ryan is popular but I wouldn't be surprised to see two very popular minorities (Jindal and Rubio) on the ticket for Republicans. They carry the GOP, and even the Christian, message but attract minority votes. At the very least they would force everyone to discuss the issues instead of the characters which isn't a bad thing.

Christie made the hard core rigthies very angry, but he looks good to the rest of the nation, and more importantly moderates and independents.
The GOP would be stupid not to consider him, just because he did the right thing for his state in a crises.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2012, 07:12:29 pm »

The best showing Christie could make in 2016 is the same showing that Jon Huntsman just made.  The GOP primary voters are not ready to nominate a moderate candidate; when they are, Christie and Jeb Bush will be at the top of the list.

I mostly agree with Sunstroke's analysis, though I think the GOP got their fill of "corporate baron candidate" this cycle.  I think they are posed to nominate a True Believer in the mold of a Huckabee or Rand Paul Ryan, though they may nominate Rubio in the hopes that Latino voters will mindlessly pull the lever for any Hispanic candidate (because that's how Obama won).
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mecadonzilla
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2012, 10:48:06 pm »

I fully expect Rubio to be in the mix come the next Republican presidential primaries.

However, I'm not sure he could advance based on the fact that Republican voters didn't let any truly insane people past their nomination procedure in 2012.

Don't get me wrong.  Mitt was a horrible candidate in almost every way, but he was literally the best the thing the Republicans had to offer this election cycle.
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bsfins
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2012, 12:46:32 am »

I'm curious,looking at the names being mentioned,have you guy's figured in Age?
(Romney is 65)
Hillary is 65 in 2012 She'd be 69 in 2016
Biden is 70 in 2012,be 74 in 2016

Our recent Presidents have been fairly young going into office...
Obama 48
G.W. Bush 55
Clinton 47
G.Bush 65
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2012, 02:36:47 pm »

Don't get me wrong.  Mitt was a horrible candidate in almost every way, but he was literally the best the thing the Republicans had to offer this election cycle.

I disagree.

I think that we'd have a President Jon Huntsman, had he run against Obama.

Romney was a uniquely poor choice.  Obama's biggest political weakness when this all started was Obamacare.  Romney created it, thus discrediting his ability to bash it.  He tried the state level vs. national level thing, but nobody really bought that, as evidenced by the criticism of Romney from the right during the primary debates.

First off, realize that 4 years is a long way away.  If Obama's economy now takes off, there may be nothing that the GOP can do, regardless of who they run, which would keep their A-listers from trying.  Conversely, if Obama's economy craps, the GOP could all but be guaranteed for a win if they don't run a lunatic, thus opening the door to a bunch of moderates.

There is likely to be a battle within the GOP in the next few years.  There will be some that want the party to come to the middle on some of the social stuff.  And there will be some that will want to go more "pure" conservative.  They'll have their shot in 2 years to go after some House and Senate stuff again, and depending on how that goes, we'll see what happens for the Presidency. 
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mecadonzilla
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2012, 04:47:01 pm »

Oh, yes, I think Huntsman would have been a fabulous candidate.  I might have even voted for him, but there was no way, no how the Republican establishment would let him run.  Hence, my statement about Mitt being the best thing they had to offer.

Moderates have no place in the Republican party any more, which is why they failed.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2012, 05:28:50 pm »

Moderates have no place in the Republican party any more, which is why they failed.

Don't be so quick to make this statement.  Their nominee for president 2 times now has been a moderate.  The problem is that they have to shed their moderation to get the nomination and they can't convince people that they're genuine in their search for the middle.

Chris Christie is perhaps the most beloved GOP figure right now, nationally speaking.  He's a moderate.  Perhaps the Republicans will start moving in that direction.  Not all will -- it will have to be a gradual shift.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2012, 05:35:21 pm »

Christie made the hard core rigthies very angry, but he looks good to the rest of the nation, and more importantly moderates and independents.

Which means he can't win the nomination, even though he would be an excelent canidate if he could win the nomination.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2012, 06:20:07 pm »

I think it is way too early to talk 2016 personally.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2012, 07:23:07 pm »

Don't be so quick to make this statement.  Their nominee for president 2 times now has been a moderate.
Former moderate.  According to Romney himself, he is "severely conservative."

Moderate candidates cannot win GOP primaries.

Quote
Chris Christie is perhaps the most beloved GOP figure right now, nationally speaking.
If you mean beloved outside of the GOP, sure.  But that doesn't mean anything in a primary election.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2012, 10:32:39 am »

Don't be so quick to make this statement.  Their nominee for president 2 times now has been a moderate.  The problem is that they have to shed their moderation to get the nomination and they can't convince people that they're genuine in their search for the middle.


As Spider put it, former moderates.  And that is a huge part of each of their problems.  One of Romney's main campaign points was the repeal of Obamacare.  But the problem was it was not that different than Romneycare.  Which didn't really fool anyone so he just sounded like a politician who flip-flopped.   McCain had the same problem.  Neither Obama, H. Clinton, C. Clinton, or GWB changed their tune to a great degree to win the nomination. You might not like that tune, but it didn't change much.  Kerry, McCain, and Romney all changed their tune quite dramatically.       
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