Are the HEAT beatable?

[Dave Gray]

We were having this conversation at a work BBQ over the weekend: I don't think that the HEAT are realistically beatable.  Sure, on any given day, a team can win, but over the course of a series, who can really challenge them?

This one guy was saying that he thinks Memphis can beat the HEAT.  And while I agree that they give the HEAT the most matchups problems, do you really see the Grizzlies being world champs?

[Sunstroke]

I don't think anyone is going to take more than 2 games in a series against the Heat during these playoffs. Even with Wade playing fewer minutes than normal lately, I just get the feeling that they have veto power on any team's notion of an upset. Sure, they may relax sometimes and let teams into games, but they've shown the ability to drop the hammer when they've needed to in order to win. LeBron is LeBron, and any early-career talk of him choking late in games, or lacking a killer instinct is long gone at this point. Chris Bosh looks like he can still be the second best player on the court and take over an offense whenever needed, and the supporting cast seems to be on a "whoever's needed tonight" rotation.

Heat win their 2nd straight title this season...chisel that bitch in stone.

[Landshark]

We were having this conversation at a work BBQ over the weekend: I don't think that the HEAT are realistically beatable.  Sure, on any given day, a team can win, but over the course of a series, who can really challenge them?

This one guy was saying that he thinks Memphis can beat the HEAT.  And while I agree that they give the HEAT the most matchups problems, do you really see the Grizzlies being world champs?

I think the Spurs match up better with the Heat than any other team left in these playoffs.  The one problem is that the Spurs can't beat the Thunder (but the Thunder can't beat the Heat).  However, with Westbrook down and out, the Thunder may be dispatched by the Grizzlies.  Seeing as my team is out of it now, I'd love to see a Heat-Spurs final.  The new kings of the NBA facing battle tested warriors trying to reclaim their throne.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think the Bulls with Rose could beat them. The Knicks before JR Smith's elbow seemed like a worthy challenger. Still the underdogs against Miami, but definitely not inconceivable.

The Heat will beat the Pacers in 3 games this series.

[Thundergod]

^^^ I guess everyone forgot that the 62-20 2011 Bulls with Rose, Noah, Boozer and Deng were beaten by the Heat. Could there have been a different result this year? Maybe. But to outright say they would have beaten them. C'mon. I know the planet hates the Heat, but give credit where credit is due.

Not calling Edge out, it's just this is all I've heard the whole series. The injuries this, the injuries that...

[Fau Teixeira]

^^^ I guess everyone forgot that the 62-20 2011 Bulls with Rose, Noah, Boozer and Deng were beaten by the Heat. Could there have been a different result this year? Maybe. But to outright say they would have beaten them. C'mon. I know the planet hates the Heat, but give credit where credit is due.

Not calling Edge out, it's just this is all I've heard the whole series. The injuries this, the injuries that...

i don't know what the debate is really about, the bulls had all their star players in 2011, and a much stronger bench .. and the heat had a much weaker bench with no allen or battier and they still beat them in 5

[EDGECRUSHER]

That was the Bulls first go round in the playoffs, it takes some trial and error before you know what it takes to be a champion. Lebron learned from his Cleveland days and Jordan learned from the troubles he had with the Pistons. It may not have happened if Rose didn't injure himself, but it would've been a very competitive series.

The Knicks seemed to have had Miami's number this year, but they imploded with selfish play from Carmelo and JR, so even if they advanced, it would've been a massacre. Chandler being held together by duct tape didn't help.

I am really looking forward to the beating the Pacers are about to receive so I can stop hearing about how good their defense is, as if good defense makes a team miss wide open shots.

Truth is, the Eastern Conference is just terribly weak now and the Heat pretty much have a bye to the NBA Finals.

[Spider-Dan]

Truth is, the Eastern Conference is just terribly weak now and the Heat pretty much have a bye to the NBA Finals.

Which Western Conference powerhouses are there with Westbrook in street clothes?  Memphis?

Once Westbrook went down it was basically MIA and SA.  There's a significant drop to anyone else.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

We were having this conversation at a work BBQ over the weekend: I don't think that the HEAT are realistically beatable.  Sure, on any given day, a team can win, but over the course of a series, who can really challenge them?

Yes, but upsets in a 7 game series are much less likely than in a one game series.

For example if team A (say the 85 Fins) should beat team B (say the 85 NEP) 70% of the time, then there is a 30% chance of an upset.

However, if team A and team B play a 7 game series the odds of an upset drop to less than 13%.

Dominant team win %   -- likelihood of winning a 7 game series
.6 - .71
.7 - .87
.8 - .96
.9 - .997

[EDGECRUSHER]

Which Western Conference powerhouses are there with Westbrook in street clothes?  Memphis?

Once Westbrook went down it was basically MIA and SA.  There's a significant drop to anyone else.

I think the Thunder and Warriors and Grizzlies would've easily been the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best teams in the East after Miami. Spurs/Heat should be a good series, probably San Antonio's last real chance at another title.

[Dave Gray]

The HEAT are in their own tier.

Then, when healthy, you have San Antonio, Memphis, Chicago, Indiana, OKC all in the 2nd group.

I don't think the Warriors are there yet (though they played a good series.)  I also think that the Knicks aren't there either and were exposed as frauds.  Boston is also done.

[Sunstroke]

If I'm making the list, I think I put Chicago below the LA Clippers and Warriors.

[EDGECRUSHER]

The Knicks were destroyed by injuries to their 3 best players (4 if you want to count Amare, I won't blame you if you don't), and they adjusted very poorly to that. Instead of changing up the game plan or even forcing JR Smith to the bench and Carmelo to shoot less, Woodson just stood there and let his team die.

Injuries are a part of the game and it sucks when it happens, but they really were decimated. Melo has a torn labrum, Smith is getting his knee drained and tore something too, Chandler basically has no neck or back. Amare has no knees, but I wouldn't really count him because he barely played this season. I would've liked to see what they could've done if healthy because they really owned the Heat during the season, but we'll never know now.

[Landshark]

Looks like the Pacers had a good game plan last night.  Shut down everyone else because you can't stop Lebron.  Just like Melo in the previous series, Lebron can't do it all by himself.  Take out his supporting cast and you'll beat them.  Let's see if they can duplicate that success as this series shifts to Indiana.

[TonyB0D]

Heat are finished...going back to Indy for 3 is the end of them.  Don't know how they won game 1.  They'll be golfing next week.