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Author Topic: AFC playoffs.  (Read 21963 times)
MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« on: October 28, 2013, 11:26:36 am »

At this point there is really two interesting questions -- the 1 seed and the 6 seed.

1 seed - winner of AFCW KC/Denver.
AFCE - NEP
AFCN - Bengals
AFCS - Colts.
5 seed - loser of KC/Denver.

Where 2/3/4 will shake out?....it is too early to tell, but I am ready to call them the division winners. 

The 6 seed is still wide open:
   
Chargers 4-3
Jets 4-4
Dolphins 3-4
Titans 3-4
Ravens 3-4
Raiders 3-4   
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EKnight
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2013, 07:57:56 am »

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 10.6 percent of teams since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 made the playoffs after a four-game losing streak. The odds are reduced to 1.7 percent for teams that have a five-game losing streak during the regular season.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=miami-dolphins&id=2402&src=desktop

Miami loses Thursday and they're done is what I'm reading from the above. -EK
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Sunstroke
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2013, 09:47:08 am »


On a just=barely-related statistical note, I have made fantasy football playoffs after both an 0-5 and 0-6 start before. The 0-5 start squad actually won the title that season, while the 0-6 got bounced in the first round.

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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2013, 10:08:15 am »

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 10.6 percent of teams since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 made the playoffs after a four-game losing streak. The odds are reduced to 1.7 percent for teams that have a five-game losing streak during the regular season.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=miami-dolphins&id=2402&src=desktop

Miami loses Thursday and they're done is what I'm reading from the above. -EK

According to the Elias Sports Bureau how often is the 6th place team in the conference after 7 weeks at 4-3?

In most years I would say 3-4 means you are out of the race, but this year maybe not. 
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EKnight
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2013, 10:53:06 am »

I think at least one team that starts 3-4 makes the playoffs pretty regularly. The Bengals did last year. The Colts did the year they won the Super Bowl. I believe Tennessee did a few years back as well. Those are just off the top of my head. I would actually argue that this year 3-4 is harder to get in because of the parity. Most years you have more teams that are far out in front and only a couple of teams fighting for that last playoff spot. This year, there's a half dozen teams fighting for one slot. -EK
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dolphins4life
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2013, 11:34:40 am »

The Colts did not start 3-4 the year they won the Super Bowl.  They started 7-0.

I don't think Miami can make the playoff this year simply because the schedule is just so difficult
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MikeO
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2013, 11:45:07 am »


I don't think Miami can make the playoff this year simply because the schedule is just so difficult

Nothing to do with the schedule. It's the fact their o-line is a mess and sucks.
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EKnight
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2013, 12:03:13 pm »

The Colts did not start 3-4 the year they won the Super Bowl.  They started 7-0.

I don't think Miami can make the playoff this year simply because the schedule is just so difficult

Sorry. It was the 2008 12-4 Colts team that started 3-4. -EK
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2013, 12:03:36 pm »

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 10.6 percent of teams since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 made the playoffs after a four-game losing streak. The odds are reduced to 1.7 percent for teams that have a five-game losing streak during the regular season.
Playoff Indicator: Since 1990, 75% of Teams To Start 3-0 Have Made Playoffs

It bears mentioning that the NFL switched to a 12-team playoff in 1990.
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dolphins4life
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2013, 12:40:19 am »

Well the Dolphins-Jets series will be critical this year
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Tenshot13
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2013, 12:48:13 am »

These are the rest of our games. If we shit the bed, I see us finishing 9-7. If we beat the teams we should, I see us either running the table at 12-4 or as low as 10-6. Jets series and chargers game will be huge.

11/11 @ Buccaneers   8:40 PM (ET)
11/17 vs.nChargers 1:00 PM (ET)
11/24 vs. Panthers 1:00 PM (ET)
12/1@Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
12/8 @ Steelers 1:00 PM (ET)
12/15 vs. Patriots 1:00 PM (ET)
12/22 @ Bills 1:00 PM (ET)
12/29vs. Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
« Last Edit: November 01, 2013, 12:50:12 am by Tenshot13 » Logged
EKnight
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2013, 05:08:23 pm »

Staying at 7-9. Tampa gets win 1 next week in the most embarrassing shit the bed moment in Miami history.

Seriously, you think there's 6-8 more wins against that schedule? How? They won a close game last night, but I felt like there were 2 plays that won it for them and they easily could have lost. Not a bad performance at all, but not "run the table" dominant by any means when they have the Jets twice, Pats, and Panthers ahead.

3 weeks ago, I said they'd be 4-4 right now, lose to Tampa, and finish 7-9. I'm 1/1 so far. -EK
« Last Edit: November 01, 2013, 05:11:17 pm by EKnight » Logged
Spider-Dan
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2013, 05:49:58 pm »

3 weeks ago, I said they'd be 4-4 right now, lose to Tampa, and finish 7-9. I'm 1/1 so far.
In the least surprising development of the day, you are again rewriting history:

With the remaining games and a current 3-2 record:

7 OCT 20 1:00PM   BILLS <W>
8 OCT 27 1:00PM  AT   PATRIOTS <L>
9 OCT 31 8:25PM   BENGALS <W>
10 NOV 11 8:40PM  AT   BUCCANEERS <L>
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EKnight
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2013, 07:26:00 pm »

Ugh. My mistake. I did pick Buffalo as a win for the Phins. I was incorrect. -EK
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Tenshot13
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2013, 03:18:29 pm »

Staying at 7-9. Tampa gets win 1 next week in the most embarrassing shit the bed moment in Miami history.

Seriously, you think there's 6-8 more wins against that schedule? How? They won a close game last night, but I felt like there were 2 plays that won it for them and they easily could have lost. Not a bad performance at all, but not "run the table" dominant by any means when they have the Jets twice, Pats, and Panthers ahead.

3 weeks ago, I said they'd be 4-4 right now, lose to Tampa, and finish 7-9. I'm 1/1 so far. -EK
You're acting like what I posted was out of this world or something. The bucs are the second worst team in the league. I'd be shocked if they lose to your shitty Panthers and that overrated QB if yours. The Jets are frauds. They won't make the same mistakes twice vs the Bills and if it wasn't for the most horribly officiated game I had ever seen, they would have beat NE in their house.

Quit downplaying the Cincy game as well. That was a 6-2 team that we beat. You're acting like it was a fluke.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2013, 03:20:38 pm by Tenshot13 » Logged
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