Conference Championship Predictions - 2014

[Spider-Dan]

And the 49ers would much rather face the Denver junior varsity defense, but I highly doubt they'll be able to beat New England.

If DEN's 19th-ranked defense is "junior varsity," what does that make SF's 24th-ranked offense?  The San Francisco offense is the worst remaining unit (offense or defense) still in the playoffs, and they're headed to play against the best remaining defense at the most hostile stadium for visitors.

I don't see SEA beating either AFC team on a neutral field; they are an above-average team away from home.  And based on Kaepernick's total ineptness @SEA thus far, I don't see SF beating them.  So I'll say the AFCC game winner will be the SB winner.

[fyo]

If DEN's 19th-ranked defense is "junior varsity," what does that make SF's 24th-ranked offense?

Looking at advanced stats, SF has the 8th ranked offense. Apparently, if you have a good D, you just don't need to score a lot of points. And, also apparently, if you play a lot of good defenses, you don't score as many points. Shocker.

[Spider-Dan]

Can we add to the list of "shockers" that if you have the highest scoring offense in the history of the league and your QB throws a record number of TDs, that your defense is going to be on the field a lot and will subsequently give up more yards/points than a team that chews up 8 minutes to kick a field goal?

[Sunstroke]

Can we add to the list of "shockers" that if you have the highest scoring offense in the history of the league and your QB throws a record number of TDs, that your defense is going to be on the field a lot and will subsequently give up more yards/points than a team that chews up 8 minutes to kick a field goal?

I would say just the opposite. New England and Denver both had higher time of possession this season than either San Francisco or Seattle.

And, also apparently, if you play a lot of good defenses, you don't score as many points. Shocker.

Don't throw logic at the self-proclaimed 49er-hater, Spidey...he'll just twist it up and present a 17-page diatribe on how the angle of the sun during afternoon games affects blue-eyed QBs more than brown-eyed QBs on designed roll-outs, and how two-minute offenses are influenced by the political climate in Zambia, yada-yada-yada. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll yawn...

The quality of the defenses you face definitely affects the offense. And, as noted, no division had the defensive prowess, across the board, as the NFC West.

My only concern, should Denver make it to the Super Bowl, is the high likelihood of Peyton Manning getting killed on the field. As much respect as I have for Manning, I'd hate to see his tombstone read "Died by Blunt Force Trauma at the Hands of the 49ers Defense."

[Spider-Dan]

New England and Denver both had higher time of possession this season than either San Francisco or Seattle.

False.

Even if it were true, DEN's opponents attempted ~30 more passes than SF's and ~90 more passes than SEA, while DEN's defense was between SF and SEA in opponent rush attempts.  DEN's offense attempted ~40 less rushes than either SF or SEA.  Time of possession only tells you that in DEN's games, DEN was generally choosing to pass and their opponent had to pass to keep up (and incomplete passes stop the clock).

The quality of the defenses you face definitely affects the offense. And, as noted, no division had the defensive prowess, across the board, as the NFC West.

The quality of the offenses you face definitely affects the defense. And no division had the offensive prowess, across the board, as the AFC West.  See how easy it is?

In point of fact, the AFCW teams had the best combined offenses of any division, while the NFCW teams had the worst.  And while I'm sure you'd like to play the "but that's because Defense Is King in the NFCW!" card, both of them played against the AFCS, who had the 2nd-worst offense (behind the NFCW, of course) but the 4th-best defense.

In other words, while SEA and SF were "clamping down" on some of the worst offenses in the league, DEN's offense was beating some otherwise-respectable defenses.

[Sunstroke]

False.

True

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2009&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false


Excuse me for using NFL.com, rather than a 3rd party site for my NFL stats

In point of fact, the AFCW teams had the best combined offenses of any division, while the NFCW teams had the worst. 

In point of fact, this is due to the fact that no one in the AFC West played defense worth a damn, while everyone in the NFC West did.

And their eye color was blue...

[Spider-Dan]

Excuse me for using NFL.com, rather than a 3rd party site for my NFL stats

Let me see if I can help you on how this crazy Internet thing works.  Allow me to bold the relevant section of the link you just posted to prove your point:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2009&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false

But maybe your point really was that DEN and NE had a higher time of possession in 2009.  If so, please do explain.

If you want to look at the numbers from 2013 instead, they can be found (on the official site!) here.  (spoiler: SF and SEA had a higher ToP than DEN and NE)

In point of fact, this is due to the fact that no one in the AFC West played defense worth a damn, while everyone in the NFC West did.

We can go around and around on whether it's bad defense in the AFCW or bad offense in the NFCW.  The bottom line is that they both played the AFCS and the AFCS had a bad offense against everyone, while winding up with an average defense.  Looking at the cross-divisional numbers (so, rank is # out of 8 divisions):

AFCW had #1Off/#6Def, played against NFCE (#3Off/#7Def) and AFCS (#7Off/#4Def)
NFCW had #8Off/#1Def, played against NFCS (#6Off/#3Def) and AFCS (#7Off/#4Def)

The NFCW played 14 of its 16 games against the three worst offensive divisions in the league (and 6 of those games were against the worst offensive division: itself).  From a offensive standpoint, it would not be possible for the NFCW to have less competent cross-divisional competition than what they faced.  These other teams had garbage offenses no matter who they played.

In contrast, the defense of AFCW divisional opponents ranged from average to below-average, and the 6 intra-division games were against merely bad defenses (not the worst, as was the case with NFCW offenses).

But yeah, I know, citing stats to prove your point is wise and insightful when you do it, but pedantic and tiresome when I do it.  (Especially when I do it from the season we are actually talking about.)

[Landshark]

Percy Harvin is out for this game

[fyo]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see the Broncos win over the Patriots.

Denver's defense is just too depleted to stop New England, who's offense has been just as good as Denver's over the last half of the season.

Then comes the coaching issue and I don't know anyone who doesn't think the Patriots hold a huge advantage there.

[Tenshot13]

DEN
SEA

DEN wins SB

[Landshark]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see the Broncos win over the Patriots.

Denver's defense is just too depleted to stop New England, who's offense has been just as good as Denver's over the last half of the season.

Then comes the coaching issue and I don't know anyone who doesn't think the Patriots hold a huge advantage there.

New England's defense is just as depleted.  It's gonna be an offensive shootout but Denver having home field advantage tips the scales

[Landshark]

Surprisingly low scoring game but Denver is gashing New England's defense.

[Landshark]

Peyton Manning just made it a three score game.  New England will now be forced to abandon the run and they'd defense is being shredded like confetti.  I've seen them come back before but with the way the Broncos offense is firing on all cylinders, I don't see it happening here

[Cathal]

That's a big 4th down stop. If the Broncos can get another TD on this drive then it's going to be very difficult for the Pats to come back. Not to say that they can't, but it's very, very tough to do that.

[Landshark]

And a sack on 4th and 2 ends New England's drive deep in Denver territory!!  If Denver can get another touchdown on the board, this one could get ugly for Bill BeliCHEAT