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Author Topic: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.  (Read 6718 times)
Pappy13
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« on: July 22, 2015, 05:53:23 pm »

http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/07/22/dolphins-best-team-in-the-afc-according-to-harvard-analysis/

At first glance you might think WTF, but actually I think what this shows is that on paper the Dolphins have a solid team of players. What it doesn't account for is coaching, game day decisions, mental makeup, etc. Honestly I think just about anyone of us would say the Dolphins have underachieved the last couple of years and could have easily made the playoffs with a little better showing at the end of the year and in a couple of key games. The Dolphins have the talent, what they lack is between the ears. Whether or not that's on the players or the coaches can be debated.
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MikeO
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2015, 07:21:12 pm »

Strictly player wise....the Fins are 2 guards, 1 linebacker, and some decent secondary play away from being a very good team. (not counting the quality coaching )

Now that is a lot of overcome and the weaknesses at those areas are glaring. If the Fins 2 guards stink and Tannehill has no time to throw I don't care what the Harvard guy says, this team has no shot.
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2015, 09:06:04 pm »

I've said for months now that there is no reason that this isn't an 11-12 win division winner except for our horrific coaching and we need 1 legit guard. Unfortunately, horrific coaching is tough to overcome, so is your QB getting sacked 50 times a year.
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dolphins4life
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2015, 11:09:20 pm »

Gotta be able to close out games.  This team could easily have been a first round bye team the last two seasons.
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hordman
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2015, 08:00:57 am »

What it doesn't account for is coaching, game day decisions, mental makeup, etc.

This is the rub.  My son was just telling me yesterday about this Harvard analysis and he was all excited they had MIA atop the AFCE.   They have the players, the personnel, etc.  It's just the execution and mental toughness on Sundays IMO.  They can hang with the best teams in the league, but it's about 3-5 crucial plays in those games that determine the outcome.

We will see again this season if the coaching has learned from past mistakes and makes the big leap.

Go Phins!!!!!!!!!!!!
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masterfins
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2015, 12:44:16 pm »

The addition of Suh should be good for at least one extra win by allowing the Dolphins to close out a game; and he should be able to keep another game from getting close so we Fans don't have to be biting off our fingernails wondering if the team will hang on.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2015, 03:29:57 pm »

I find these statistical analysis always interesting. 

They are using AV (a convoluted stat) to predict EOL and then using EOL to predict win W-L. 

The claim is when they back tested AV did do a good job at predicting EOL.  However, absent from the article is any claim that the back tested EOL derived from AV correlated into actual W-L. 
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Fau Teixeira
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2015, 05:42:18 pm »

at least they'll have a point 8  months from now to see if their hypothesis is correct
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dolphins4life
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2015, 07:22:13 pm »

Last three years all should have been playoff seasons, I think we can agree on that.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2015, 03:59:43 pm »

Strictly player wise....the Fins are 2 guards, 1 linebacker, and some decent secondary play away from being a very good team. (not counting the quality coaching )

Now that is a lot of overcome and the weaknesses at those areas are glaring. If the Fins 2 guards stink and Tannehill has no time to throw I don't care what the Harvard guy says, this team has no shot.
I couldn't agree more. Have I ever mentioned that I'm very frustrated it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line?
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MikeO
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2015, 05:02:55 pm »

I couldn't agree more. Have I ever mentioned that I'm very frustrated it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line?

It's a joke. Paid the QB, went out and invested huge in the WR's ....but ignored the biggest problem for another year in a row which all those positions hinge on. Let's keep banking on Dallas Thomas ...lol
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Pappy13
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2015, 07:38:21 am »

It's a joke. Paid the QB, went out and invested huge in the WR's ....but ignored the biggest problem for another year in a row which all those positions hinge on. Let's keep banking on Dallas Thomas ...lol
You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 07:43:33 am by Pappy13 » Logged

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MikeO
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2015, 12:14:50 pm »

You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.

They ignored the guards last year!!! Sure they signed Albert and drafted James. But guards matter! They had their arms twisted to sign Satelle and if Pouncey didn't get injured they would have never have signed him. And it would have been an nightmare with no Satelle last year
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2015, 10:29:31 am »

You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.
Pappy ... I think you've said this before. I'm not sure why you haven't seen the same things most other people have. Our O-line has been the weak spot for years and yet we continually go into the season "hoping" someone who has never shown anything will step up and suddenly become a decent player on the o-line. I really don't get it.  How do your QB continually lead the league in hits, pay him big money, and still not protect him? 
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2015, 11:12:08 am »

What do you consider "doing something" about the problem?

In the last 5 years, Miami has spent 2 first-round, 1 second-round, and 2 third-round picks on the OL.  Their biggest free-agent signing last year was a Pro Bowl tackle.  There are still holes at LB, at CB, and other areas of the team.  The front office has to be able to juggle priorities.
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