let's go one step further

[Spider-Dan]

Even by statistical definition, they ran the ball on 1st, second, and third down unsuccessfully.  Stuffed all three times.  Even if they got in on 4th down, by definition, it is a 25% success rate.

That's not how statistics work.

If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads twice, that doesn't mean a coin flip has an 80% chance of being tails.

[Brian Fein]

That's not how statistics work.

If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads twice, that doesn't mean a coin flip has an 80% chance of being tails.

I know how statistics work.  Thanks for the lesson.

But this isn't a random process with a bimodal distribution like a coin flip is.  This is influenced by non-random skills and events.  Success rate absolutely applies.  If I approach a someone's house when they're not home and try to open the front door, is there a 50/50 chance I get in (locked or unlocked) or is it statistically more likely that the door is locked?

[Spider-Dan]

Brian, you said that "by statistical definition," if they successfully ran the ball on 4th down that would mean they have a 25% success rate on 1-yard runs.  That's not statistical probability; that's short-term history.

Using the same logic, since they failed on the 2 runs they did try, we must conclude that they had a 0% success rate, and that any further runs would be a waste of time.

[Brian Fein]

Using the same logic, since they failed on the 2 runs they did try, we must conclude that they had a 0% success rate, and that any further runs would be a waste of time.

BINGO.
You can keep trying it, you might get lucky once or twice, but if you tried it three times and failed, why would you do it a 4th time?

This is precisely why a play action pass was called on 3rd down, and not another run.  It wasn't working, try something else.

[Phishfan]

BINGO.
You can keep trying it, you might get lucky once or twice, but if you tried it three times and failed, why would you do it a 4th time?

This is precisely why a play action pass was called on 3rd down, and not another run.  It wasn't working, try something else.

According to reports the back was told not to score on the first two carries. You can't say it wasn't working if that report is accurate. No one was trying to make it work.

[Brian Fein]

According to reports the back was told not to score on the first two carries. You can't say it wasn't working if that report is accurate. No one was trying to make it work.

In this hypothetical situation, I'm assuming the coach is not a moron and prefer to eat up seconds rather than take a 10 point lead.  If they wanted to not score, why wouldn't they just take a knee?  That story sounds really silly to me.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

BINGO.
You can keep trying it, you might get lucky once or twice, but if you tried it three times and failed, why would you do it a 4th time?

This is precisely why a play action pass was called on 3rd down, and not another run.  It wasn't working, try something else.

because 3 is too small of a sample size to ever tell you anything meaningful.  You could have an 80% overall success rate and have 3 fails in a row. 

Plus if you only do your highest percent plays every time,  they will soon fail. What I mean by this is NEP isa better passing team, than running,  and their best receiver is Gronk, but if Brady threw to Gronk on every single play,  NE would lose.