Who can stop the Patriots?

[MikeO]

Carolina has been the best coached team this year. I won't knock them. They play smart sound football. They took the Seattle blueprint from the past 2 years. Play great defense and don't mess up on offense.

Do I think they will win it all, no. But they aren't a fraud either.

[Tenshot13]

Seeing as LaFell is their #1 receiver, I'll asume they will be losing soon.

Called it!

[Sunstroke]

I am now accepting thank you cards for the Patriots defeat last night. On the rare-rare-rare occasion that I actually make a wager on a team that I don't really care about, I pretty much always lose. So, when my Broncos fanatic coworker asked if I wanted to bet lunch on the game, I said "sure." After all, if I lost the bet, it would mean that the Patsies undefeated run is over.

Took my coworker to the Biergarten today for "Dollar Bratwurst Mondays." Total for two lunches (and two beers) came to $12 plus tip ($3).

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Worst 11-0 team?  Talk about lack of respect.   They have been playing well.  Are the dolphins the most talented 4 and 7 team you have ever seen?

[EKnight]

They're 3rd in the league in scoring and haven't scored less than 27 points since week 2. Second overall defense, lead the league in turnover ratio and have a dozen or so Pro Bowlers. Anyone who thinks they're overrated or doing just enough to get by haven't watched them play. They've been fantastic on both sides of the ball.

[Spider-Dan]

lead the league in turnover ratio

And there you have it.

Turnover ratio is the quickest way for a team to have a dramatically improved record.  Most of the time when you see a 1-year-magical-turnaround team (e.g. 2008 Dolphins), they accomplish this feat by being at the top of the league in turnover ratio.  But turnover ratio is not something you can directly control; you can't force opposing QBs to make bad decisions, nor can you control the bounce of fumbles.  It's not a stable metric and if you are dependent on winning the turnover battle every week, when you get to the playoffs and play against teams that aren't in the habit of defeating themselves, you're in trouble.

Put another way: what was the biggest offseason change that occurred in Carolina to improve from 7-9 last year to 11-0 this year?  Same coach, same QB, lost their top WR before the season started.  Nearly all of their key players were there last season too.  So what, they are all just playing better this year?

We'll see how consistent that is come playoff time.

[Spider-Dan]

This thread made me think of some of the conversations that I had (with the same people) when KC was 9-0, back in this thread.  I'd just like to say that while I certainly have missed my share of predictions, I totally effing NAILED IT with KC:

I cannot recall the last time I was less concerned about an undefeated team than I am about the Chiefs right now.  In order to go undefeated, they have to do all of the following:

- beat DEN twice
- beat SD twice
- beat IND
- win 3 playoff games

I don't think they will do any of the above, much less all.

I called every single one of their losses and their playoff exit, and I totally forgot about it.

Anyway, as I said, the 2015 Panthers are not the 2013 Chiefs.  The '13 Chiefs were just a glaringly obvious fraud and pretty much everyone could tell they were not really very good.  The Panthers are a good team; in a normal year where they didn't get every bounce, I could see them as 11-5 or 12-4.  They'll probably wind up 14-2 this year, but unlike KC I'm not going to predict them getting immediately bounced.  I'd put money on SEA or GB beating them in the playoffs, and I'd probably take AZ to beat them too, but if they dodge those three teams then I could see them making it to the Super Bowl (and losing again).

[MikeO]

And there you have it.

Turnover ratio is the quickest way for a team to have a dramatically improved record.  Most of the time when you see a 1-year-magical-turnaround team (e.g. 2008 Dolphins), they accomplish this feat by being at the top of the league in turnover ratio.  But turnover ratio is not something you can directly control; you can't force opposing QBs to make bad decisions, nor can you control the bounce of fumbles.  It's not a stable metric and if you are dependent on winning the turnover battle every week, when you get to the playoffs and play against teams that aren't in the habit of defeating themselves, you're in trouble.

Put another way: what was the biggest offseason change that occurred in Carolina to improve from 7-9 last year to 11-0 this year?  Same coach, same QB, lost their top WR before the season started.  Nearly all of their key players were there last season too.  So what, they are all just playing better this year?

We'll see how consistent that is come playoff time.

It helps they play in a garbage division no doubt, but they don't shoot themselves in the foot which is key. A lot like Seattle the past few years, don't turn it over on offense and play sound defense.  They do just enough on offense and minimize the turnovers. Nobody on their offense scares ya which will be there downfall, Seattle had playmakers on offense even though they didn't ask them to do much and could call on them when needed. Carolina doesn't have that. If Carolina has to play Arizona in a playoff game they will be in trouble though I don't care where the game is played.

This Panthers team is better than the 2013 Chiefs team. I mean Carolina isn't winning the Super Bowl this year but you are selling them short.

[EKnight]

They do just enough on offense

Averaging 30.1 ppg and winning games by more than 10 pts. I will absolutely grant you they've only played 3 "quality" wins (@Seattle, Indy and GB), but you play the schedule you're given and the offense has been a strong point all year. Outscoring 29 other teams is hardly doing "just enough."

[Tenshot13]

It pains me to say, but Carolina looks pretty legit to me. I see them going to the Superbowl.

[EKnight]

It pains me to say, but Carolina looks pretty legit to me. I see them going to the Superbowl.

Wow. That's pretty bold right there. I'm about as willing to say that as I am to say they'll go 16-0. It could happen, but I'm not predicting it's likely. The reasons they have been successful this year, from what I've seen are this: the defense is absurd. You can't throw on Norman's side of the field. Ask Dez about that. He's an absolute shut-down corner and that's made a huge difference. It's also hard to gain short yardage completions or run well with Luke and Davis. Carolina's linebackers are legit. Offensively, they've been able to hide a lot of thier short-comings at receiver by Olsen's great play and Cotchery has been clutch when he's needed. They've proven they can win a shoot-out (against GB), but that's clearly not the way they want to win ball games. Funchess may be the difference maker come playoff time, as he's a huge target and getting better at holding on to the ball.

Having said all that- this season has been so bad with injuries. As good as Arizona has been, CJ and Ellington both got hurt and they barely beat a bad SF team. Anything can happen. IMO, they have the right attitude, of not looking beyond whatever their current game is.

[Sunstroke]

And there you have it.

Turnover ratio is the quickest way for a team to have a dramatically improved record. 

Classic Spidey...ignores the "#3 scoring offense" and "#2 overall defense" and pounces on the turnover ratio like a chubby kid on an ice cream sandwich.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose... 

[Spider-Dan]

Well, yes, when your opponent gives you the ball, a) you have the opportunity to score more points and b) they don't have the opportunity to gain more yards.  So it's not surprising that the team that is leading the league in takeaway/giveaway is also doing great in compiled statistics (total points, total yards allowed).

[fyo]

Well, yes, when your opponent gives you the ball, a) you have the opportunity to score more points and b) they don't have the opportunity to gain more yards.  So it's not surprising that the team that is leading the league in takeaway/giveaway is also doing great in compiled statistics (total points, total yards allowed).

If you don't like the basic stats, why not look at some of the advanced stats that explicitly don't give teams credit for being lucky. That don't give (as much) credit for scoring from a short field. That don't give (as much) credit for winning against a horrible team.

Do that and the Carolina Panthers are still a top 5 team. Football Outsiders have them as the #4 team overall, with the 10th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense (and horrible special teams).

[Spider-Dan]

But their record is not that of the fourth-best team in the league.  Their record is an undefeated 11-0, best in the league.   That's the point.

I already said that "in a normal year where they didn't get every bounce," I think this CAR team would wind up 11-5 or 12-4.  So if CAR had a record right now of 9-2 or 8-3 (which would reflect the fourth-best-team-in-the-league), we wouldn't be having this discussion.