FanDuel/Draft Kings Player Advice

[Tenshot13]

Since there are a few of us on these sites now, why not help each other out?

Justin Forsett would be a good mid value player this week.  He's coming of a huge game yardage wise, is going up against Cleveland who has the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league and all of BAL WRs are hurt, so they will be leaning heavy on the run.

Le'Veon Bell is a must start.  Going against SD who has the 4th worst rushing defense in the league, and no Big Ben so they will be run heavy.

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK:  Kendall Wright and Marcus Mariotta.  Buffalo has given up 10 TDs to the passing game this season, tied for 2nd worst in the league.  Wright is Mariotta's favorite target.

[Brian Fein]

I had trouble formulating a lineup this week.  I was intrigued by Mariota, but too scared to jump on.  Went with Peyton instead.

I also took LeVeon Bell, but I don't trust Justin Forsett.  Went with the value pick of Boobie Dixon at RB2, and Eddie Lacy in my Flex.

My sleeper this week is Travis Benjamin.  Watch out!  Baltimore gave up 7 TD's to WR's in the past 3 games, and was responsible for AJ Green's 227 yard, 2 TD performance 2 weeks ago.

[Tenshot13]

I had trouble formulating a lineup this week.  I was intrigued by Mariota, but too scared to jump on.  Went with Peyton instead.

I also took LeVeon Bell, but I don't trust Justin Forsett.  Went with the value pick of Boobie Dixon at RB2, and Eddie Lacy in my Flex.

My sleeper this week is Travis Benjamin.  Watch out!  Baltimore gave up 7 TD's to WR's in the past 3 games, and was responsible for AJ Green's 227 yard, 2 TD performance 2 weeks ago.

Good stuff, I might have to change one of my WR to Benjamin.

I went with Eli over Peyton, but it was a tough call. 

[Tenshot13]

Okay, I made some more changes...this is what my lineups look like (I'm playing 2 tournaments)

QB - Brady/E.Manning
RB - Bell/Bell
RB - Forsett/Freeman
WR - Fitzgerald/Thomas
WR - Benjamin/Benjamin
WR - Wright/Wright
TE - Bennett/Gates
K - Brown/Santos
D - Broncos/Broncos

[Brian Fein]

You know the system is rigged by the insider info and you are going to play anyway?  

the system isn't rigged - seems like you don't really understand the story.

I've made one lineup so far, might jump into another one before the end of today.

QB - P. Manning
RB - L. Bell
RB - B. Dixon
WR - T. Benjamin
WR - J. Edelman
WR - L. Fitzgerald
TE - A. Gates
Flex - A. Morris
DT - Chiefs

Plus I have $2200 left on the table.

[Tenshot13]

^Are you in love with the Chiefs for a defense?  I just don't trust their secondary, it's the worst in the league.  I feel really good about Denver's defense against the Raiders.

Other than that, our lineups are pretty similar.

[Dave Gray]

Other than that, our lineups are pretty similar.

I think that this is the problem.  This is how they're using the inside information against you.   I assume that your lineups are similar to a lot of people. 

Let's say that there are 10 teams in your league.
If you pick against the grain and you're wrong, you lose.  If you pick against the grain and you're right you win the money of ten other people.
If you pick with the grain and you're wrong, you lose.  If you pick with the grain and you're right, you still have to be right enough to beat the 9 other people.

[Brian Fein]

There are 9 variable.  The chances of people having the exact same lineup is slim.  Tenshot and I might have SIMILAR lineups, but his choices of Forsett, Wright, Bennett, etc make a difference.  Besides, I'm in leagues with hundreds of thousands of others where you have to finish in the top 100K to win.  Don't need to beat everyone, just have to get the best 9 guys.

Also, I like that DraftKings doesn't make you pick a kicker.  That, to me, is the biggest difference.  Kickers are a wild card and unpredictable, but can make a difference between win and lose.

^Are you in love with the Chiefs for a defense?  I just don't trust their secondary, it's the worst in the league.  I feel really good about Denver's defense against the Raiders.

I picked them because of their matchup against Chicago, but now that I'm reading that Cutler is likely going to play, I swapped to the Giants at home vs SF.  They are ranked 6th in PPG and SF is dead last in OPPG.

[Tenshot13]

^^^Good choice, I was going back and forth between them and DEN.

[Brian Fein]

^^^Good choice, I was going back and forth between them and DEN.

The only reason I stayed away from Denver is because they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout.

[Tenshot13]

The only reason I stayed away from Denver is because they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout.

What do you think of playing Owen Daniels this week?  He's pretty unreliable, but Oakland is getting destroyed by TEs this season.

[Brian Fein]

I considered it for a moment, and then I imagined how often Peyton throws to his TE's since Julius Thomas left.  I imagine Daniels has like 2 catches for 24 yards and a TD - at best.  I just figured you could do better elsewhere, too risky for me.

It is an attractive matchup, though.

[Sunstroke]

The only reason I stayed away from Denver is because they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout.

Had to scratch my head a little bit here. Being on the road and having a struggling offense...wouldn't that indicate the exact opposite of a shootout?

[Brian Fein]

^^ yes, but Oakland's defense is crapola.  The best medicine for a struggling offense is a struggling defense. 

[Sunstroke]

I'm going to set the bone down after this, but I'll give it one more shake here. The reason you didn't want to use the Denver defense is because "they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout." Not sure quite how you correlate their offensive struggles with their defensive potential for allowing a shootout, but ok. Then you said:

^^ yes, but Oakland's defense is crapola.  The best medicine for a struggling offense is a struggling defense. 

This is making my head hurt even more, as Oakland's defense being crapola really has minimal effect on Denver's defense. Similarly, Denver's offense improving due to the "good medicine" of Oakland's crapola-esque defense surely couldn't have any negative effects on Denver's defense.

You did realize that we were talking about Denver's defense, right?