Tannehill

[Rich]

With regard to the part I bolded, we actually don't know that, unless, again, we objectively compare the Dolphins' line to those of other teams.

You're a PFF junkie, right?

30. Miami Dolphins (27th)

Pass blocking rank: 27th

Run blocking rank: 30th

Penalties rank: T-8th

Stud: You almost feel bad for Mike Pouncey (80.0) at times, who looks so much better than his line teammates.

Dud: Pick a guard, any guard. Well, any guard named Dallas Thomas (36.3) or Jamil Douglas (28.7). Neither man has come out of the first eight weeks with any real credit.

Summary: The offensive line looked like a weakness heading into the season, and so it has proved. Injuries to Ja’Wuan James and , haven’t helped, but even those two being fully healthy couldn’t overcome the play at the guard spots.

Look at any of the metrics sites over the past four seasons. They all agree the Dolphins line is bottom third in the league year in and year out.

All of the experts agree. All of the fans agree. There is a consensus that the offensive line has been an issue that the Dolphins have not addressed for four years now.

Let's be honest here, if someone wants to argue otherwise, they are going to come out looking very silly.

[Dolfanalyst]

You're a PFF junkie, right?

Look at any of the metrics sites over the past four seasons. They all agree the Dolphins line is bottom third in the league year in and year out.

All of the experts agree. All of the fans agree. There is a consensus that the offensive line has been an issue that the Dolphins have not addressed for four years now.

Let's be honest here, if someone wants to argue otherwise, they are going to come out looking very silly.

The data there get at exactly what I've been saying.  You first have to determine whether the Dolphins' offensive line is significantly worse than the average one in the league.

Here are the larger pass blocking data from PFF in that area (team grades league-wide):

Team   Pass Block
Dallas Cowboys   40.9
Oakland Raiders   30
Carolina Panthers   18.3
Green Bay Packers   11.4
Pittsburgh Steelers   4.2
Cleveland Browns   3.9
Atlanta Falcons   -5.8
Houston Texans   -9.3
Cincinnati Bengals   -10.3
New Orleans Saints   -12.6
Buffalo Bills   -18.1
Indianapolis Colts   -22.6
San Francisco 49ers   -24.4
Washington Redskins-28.1
Baltimore Ravens   -32.9
Denver Broncos   -43.2
Jacksonville Jaguars   -44.1
Minnesota Vikings   -44.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-46.2
Philadelphia Eagles   -47.1
N.Y. Jets   -49
N.Y. Giants   -49.3
Detroit Lions   -51.2
Chicago Bears   -53.3
Tennessee Titans   -55.7
Miami Dolphins   -56.7
St. Louis Rams   -58.2
Seattle Seahawks   -61
Kansas City Chiefs   -65.9
Arizona Cardinals   -67.1
New England Patriots-79.5
San Diego Chargers   -111

The league average is -32.5.  The standard deviation is 32.8.

The Dolphins aren't significantly below the league average.  They're part of the league norm, at least when it comes to measuring pass blocking in this way.

The teams significantly below the league average were KC, Arizona, New England, and San Diego, all of which had quarterbacks who functioned better than Tannehill in terms of the quarterback-related statistics most strongly associated with winning.  There is something those QBs did to overcome the pass blocking of their offensive lines, that is if you consider PFF's pass blocking ratings to be valid.

Again, this underscores the fact that the correlation between QB-related variables and pass blocking is relatively weak.  When that correlation is weak, it becomes much harder to attribute the play of quarterbacks to their offensive lines.

[Rich]

When looking at league average, you should remove the outliers (San Diego) from the list.

[Rich]

Also, that is pass blocking data. Offensive lines do other things besides pass blocking and having an effective ground game helps to prevent a poor pass blocking offensive line from having to do more of what they do worse.

The Dolphins offensive line is poor at both pass and run blocking and has been so for quite a while.

[Brian Fein]

I've read a lot of this thread but not contributed up to now.  My thoughts on Tannehill are clearly outlined in the article I published on this site 2 weeks ago: http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/content/ryan-tannehill-should-be-benched-immediately

My thoughts on Tannehill are this:
1) He is playing scared, he has been sacked more than any other QB (including Andrew Luck - numbers don't lie), and it has caused him to fold into the fetal position when someone gets close to protect the ball.  You'll recall in 2012 he had a big problem with fumbling, and this is the correction - PROTECT THE BALL AT ALL COSTS.  As it is now, he has less than 2 seconds to throw most plays, so it appears that he holds the ball too long.  No receiver can run a deep route and get open in that short of a time, so the Dolphins dink and dunk a lot.  This is what you have to do with a crap-tastic O-line.  Its great to have 2 all-pro's on the o-line (I'd even argue that James is a solid-to-excellent player - when healthy - as well), but the guys between them need to be at least serviceable, not the total garbage the Dolphins have out there.

1a) Tannehill is tough as nails.  He has missed 0 starts in his career, despite the beating he takes week in and week out.  There's something to be said for the consistency.

2) Tannehill is an excellent game manager and an accurate passer.  We don't need him to be Tom Brady/Payton Manning/Aaron Rodgers, as long as the other areas of the team are solid.  Why all this emphasis on "elite" QB's?  Maine hit this right on the head.  Tannehill is an excellent QB for a team with other puzzle pieces in place.  He is not the guy to carry a team like Miami with holes all over the field.  Hell, I'd wager that if the Patriots traded Tom Brady for Tannehill, the Patriots would still run away with the division and the Dolphins would be 8-8.

3) The offensive game plan has not played to Tannehill's strength - short ball accuracy and danger on the move.  Tannehill can beat you with his feet, and had success in 2014 with the read option, but the offense decided that was no longer important.  Why?

In total, I feel like Tannehill is a perfectly fine QB for any team, and has been making gold out of turds for the past 2-3 years.  But he isn't the kind that can hide other weaknesses on the team.  Get that guy some protection, let him work the field and step up in the pocket and you'll start seeing his confidence elevate and that deep ball start connecting.  Only then will you realize what a commodity he is to the team.

[Dolfanalyst]

When looking at league average, you should remove the outliers (San Diego) from the list.

Then theoretically you would also remove Dallas, who is roughly as far from the mean but in the other direction, and which results in roughly the same league average (-32.28).  The standard deviation decreases to 27.6, but the Dolphins are again non-significantly different from the average.

[Dolfanalyst]

Also, that is pass blocking data. Offensive lines do other things besides pass blocking and having an effective ground game helps to prevent a poor pass blocking offensive line from having to do more of what they do worse.

The Dolphins offensive line is poor at both pass and run blocking and has been so for quite a while.

But again, we're looking at how these things affect Tannehill specifically.

First, there is no quantitative evidence that the Dolphins' running game was ineffective.  Its average number of yards per carry (4.3) was slightly above the league average of 4.1 in 2015.

Second, Tannehill's performance, on a game-by-game basis, didn't correlate strongly with 1) the run-pass ratio on offense, 2) yards per carry in the running game, or 3) total rushing yards.

So when the offensive line blocks more for the run and less for the pass, and when the running game is more effective, Tannehill's performance tends not to improve.  Again, those variables aren't related.

Lots of these things make sense in theory, and I'm not debating that, but they aren't supported by the actual objective evidence available to us.

[Brian Fein]

^^ Out of curiosity, what metric are you using to quantify "Tannehill's performance?"

[Dolfanalyst]

^^ Out of curiosity, what metric are you using to quantify "Tannehill's performance?"

QB rating and YPA (yards per pass attempt).

[Rich]

Then theoretically you would also remove Dallas, who is roughly as far from the mean but in the other direction, and which results in roughly the same league average (-32.28).  The standard deviation decreases to 27.6, but the Dolphins are again non-significantly different from the average.

Dallas is about 10 points ahead of the 2nd team. San Diego is 40 points behind the 2nd to worst team.

I only drop San Diego.

[Rich]

But again, we're looking at how these things affect Tannehill specifically.

I'm discussing the fact that Tannehill has not had even a serviceable offensive line during his four year career. You cannot actually know how the quality of offensive line play affects Tannehill without seeing what Tannehill can do with an at least serviceable offensive line. Every season, there is at least one, usually two, glaring holes in the offensive line.

First, there is no quantitative evidence that the Dolphins' running game was ineffective.  Its average number of yards per carry (4.3) was slightly above the league average of 4.1 in 2015.

The running game can't gain a yard when it needs to. However, once in a while they create a hole for Miller and he turns it into a 10-20 yard gain, which ups his average.

Football Outsiders and PFF metrics both indicate that this offensive line is even worse at run blocking than pass blocking. And they both indicate that this offensive line is pretty terrible at pass blocking.

And on top of that, anyone seeing the game with a shred of objectivity versus thru the "Blame Tannehill" lense can see the same things that the metrics bare out.

This offensive line is significantly poor at any sort of blocking.

Second, Tannehill's performance, on a game-by-game basis, didn't correlate strongly with 1) the run-pass ratio on offense, 2) yards per carry in the running game, or 3) total rushing yards.

This point is superfluous.

Lots of these things make sense in theory, and I'm not debating that, but they aren't supported by the actual objective evidence available to us.

They are not supported by the evidence you cherry pick. What a coincidence.

[Rich]

QB rating and YPA (yards per pass attempt).

Both being stats that are directly impacted by a number of factors that may be outside of the QB's control.

When you focus on one or two metrics to tell a story, you may be telling Chapter 2 and 3, but there are 10-15 other chapters needed.

[Run Ricky Run]

Lol at you guys arguing with numbers. You do realize that Tannehill makes the line look worse than it is.  Of course you people thought lousuckass polite was the greatest thing ever bc he always gained exactly 1 yard.

[Cathal]

Lol at you guys arguing with numbers. You do realize that Tannehill makes the line look worse than it is.  Of course you people thought lousuckass polite was the greatest thing ever bc he always gained exactly 1 yard.

And yet we still needed Polite in a lot of situations. 3rd and short we suck at.

[Dolfanalyst]

Dallas is about 10 points ahead of the 2nd team. San Diego is 40 points behind the 2nd to worst team.

I only drop San Diego.

And even then, the Dolphins aren't a standard deviation (30.1) from the league average (-29.9).