Dolphins Analytics Thread?

[Rich]

It's also good to have visibility into the source data. I know you're a fan of PFF. I am as well, and as you know, my account is no longer active and yours is based on the scheduling of renewals.

It's a shame because those premium stats were interesting to look at. They told multiple different stories from all sorts of different angles.

[masterfins]

Welcome please let everybody know how Jarvis Landry is worse than an average nfl wr. Thank you

Yeah, use some stat like where does Landry rate in NFL History for receptions in the first two years of their career.  That will show everyone how much Landry sucks!   

[masterfins]

Just joined the forum.  Glad to be here.  Been a Dolphins fan since the early 1980s. 

I'm wondering if people here would be interested in a thread devoted to discussing the Dolphins from an "analytics" point of view.

If you're unfamiliar with the concept, this article may be informative:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/11/19/nfl-tv-broadcasts-advanced-stats

Welcome!  I'd be against adding more analytics to games while broadcasting.  I just want the entertainment of enjoying the game.  It's already annoying enough to listen to some of the broadcasters, and their pre scripted comments.  Just give me the yards, downs, etc. and let me watch.  Putting more data into the stream would be like adding a new military rank of Corporal Captain.

[Run Ricky Run]

Yeah, use some stat like where does Landry rate in NFL History for receptions in the first two years of their career.  That will show everyone how much Landry sucks!   

It is like a running back who has the most carries ever in the first two years of his career.

[Tenshot13]

It is like a running back who has the most carries ever in the first two years of his career.

A running back that has 1157 yards and 10.5 yards per catch.  Yup, he sucks.

[Run Ricky Run]

A running back that has 1157 yards and 10.5 yards per catch.  Yup, he sucks.

a running back that has the most carries and is 103rd in the nfl in yards per carry.

[Run Ricky Run]

Landry was -7% in DVOA and was ranked 56th in DYAR, one above Ted Ginn.

[Dolfanalyst]

I think the proper question about Landry from an analytics perspective is, what skill is being measured most by the statistics of his that distinguish him from others at his position?

The next question would be, how much does that skill contribute to winning in the NFL, in comparison to other skills of players at that position?

At that point you'll have Landry's relative value.

The trap, as with all Dolphins players, is to fail to do the league-wide comparison in this regard, and stop at a surface-level appraisal of Landry, simply because he's a Dolphins player.

If the team braintrust engaged in that superficial level of analysis, it would run the risk of having a bunch of overpaid players whose skills, and whose contributions to winning in the NFL, don't warrant their salary cap hits.

The team can do better than that, and so can we.

[fyo]

If the team braintrust engaged in that superficial level of analysis, it would run the risk of having a bunch of overpaid players whose skills, and whose contributions to winning in the NFL, don't warrant their salary cap hits.

Fortunately, the Dolphins still have two full years of Landry's rookie contract left. At $1M a year, he's clearly great value.

Landry was -7% in DVOA and was ranked 56th in DYAR, one above Ted Ginn.

It's important to distinguish between "what value does a PLAY contribute towards winning" and "what value does a PLAYER have". DVOA and DYAR measure the former and while there is certainly a correlation between the two, they are not identical.

If Landry gets thrown the ball on a bunch of 5 yard hitches on third and long, that's clearly not (generally) going to contribute significantly towards winning. DVOA and other advanced "win" metrics (which I'm a big fan of, btw) are going to score those plays negatively, but that doesn't mean Landry didn't perform great on those plays. If the team never throws the ball his way in the red zone, that's also going to negatively impact his advanced (and traditional) stats.

That's why it's important to use statistics to illuminate things, not as the proverbial (and previously mentioned) lamp post aka crutch.

In Landry's case, if you look at the statistics that he has more direct influence over, he looks like a top 10 receiver. His catch rate is very good and his yards after catch place him among the league elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch

If you look at that list, you'll see two tight ends and three running backs in the top 10. Of the five receivers, Landry has the second most YAC and is the ONLY receiver without a fumble.

[Dolfanalyst]

Fortunately, the Dolphins still have two full years of Landry's rookie contract left. At $1M a year, he's clearly great value.

I agree that it would be very difficult to find fault with Landry at that salary, given even just the volume of his production, without getting into any of the particulars of it.

It's important to distinguish between "what value does a PLAY contribute towards winning" and "what value does a PLAYER have". DVOA and DYAR measure the former and while there is certainly a correlation between the two, they are not identical.

If Landry gets thrown the ball on a bunch of 5 yard hitches on third and long, that's clearly not (generally) going to contribute significantly towards winning. DVOA and other advanced "win" metrics (which I'm a big fan of, btw) are going to score those plays negatively, but that doesn't mean Landry didn't perform great on those plays. If the team never throws the ball his way in the red zone, that's also going to negatively impact his advanced (and traditional) stats.

That's why it's important to use statistics to illuminate things, not as the proverbial (and previously mentioned) lamp post aka crutch.

In Landry's case, if you look at the statistics that he has more direct influence over, he looks like a top 10 receiver. His catch rate is very good and his yards after catch place him among the league elite.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch

If you look at that list, you'll see two tight ends and three running backs in the top 10. Of the five receivers, Landry has the second most YAC and is the ONLY receiver without a fumble.

Very good points there.  Thanks!

[masterfins]

It is like a running back who has the most carries ever in the first two years of his career.

Actually its nothing like that, you aren't even comparing apples to oranges, more like comparing red meat to cucumbers.

[Rich]

Actually its nothing like that, you aren't even comparing apples to oranges, more like comparing red meat to cucumbers.

Receiving a hand off is as easy as catching a pass.... isn't it??? 

[Dolfanalyst]

Receiving a hand off is as easy as catching a pass.... isn't it??? 

It probably isn't, but if the percentage of drops by receivers happened to be very low across the board, then the argument would have some merit, in that there would be very little variation in catching ability across receivers in the league.  If there is such little variation in it, then it wouldn't be a whole lot different, practically speaking, from being handed the ball, when you're comparing receivers to each other.

If just about every receiver is excellent at something, then no receiver is distinctive in that area, and so that skill or ability becomes all but meaningless in comparing them to each other.

[Pappy13]

If you want to use some analytics, use team analytics, they are much more revealing.

Here's one for you, turnovers forced 16 (rank 29th). 13 INT's and 3 Fumble recoveries. Oh and by the way, one of the INT's was fumbled and given back to the opponent without the offense ever seeing the ball.

Miami's turnover margin wasn't too bad, only -3 but that's because the offense did a fairly good job of not turning the ball over with only 19 (one of those was a defensive player) tied for 8th in the league, but the defense was terrible only forcing 16 turnovers. Turnovers have a tremendous impact on a game because of the change in field position. Not giving up points is big for a defense, but creating turnovers is even more important because not only do they prevent points, but often times it means giving your offense favorable field position which leads to points.

Want another team stat? Average starting field position. I don't have the stats for it, maybe Rich can provide it, but I'd be willing to bet that Miami's average starting field position for their offense was inside their own 35 yard line and possibly inside their own 30. I did a quick look at Miami's first 3 games and the average starting position was inside their own 27 yard line. They started 19 of 33 drives either at the 20 or inside their own 20. That's primarily because Miami's defense either let the opposing team score or allowed them to drive far enough down the field to pin their offense deep in it's own territory.

Now I don't put all Miami's problems on the defense, the offense sure had it's fair share of ineptitude moving the ball resulting in good field position for the opponent, but all you people that blame Tannehill for not doing enough on offense, need to take a good look at the defense and realize that the defense has gotten worse every single year that Tannehill has been the QB while Tannehill and the offense has gotten better 3 out of 4 years. Tannehill and the offense aren't solely to blame, the defense has to take a LOT of the credit.

[Dolfanalyst]

If you want to use some analytics, use team analytics, they are much more revealing.

Here's one for you, turnovers forced 16 (rank 29th). 13 INT's and 3 Fumble recoveries.

Miami's turnover margin wasn't too bad, only -3 but that's because the offense did a fairly good job of not turning the ball over with only 19 tied for 8th in the league, but the defense was terrible only forcing 16 turnovers. Turnovers have a tremendous impact on a game because of the change in field position. Not giving up points is big for a defense, but creating turnovers is even more important because not only do they prevent points, but often times it means giving your offense favorable field position which leads to points.

Want another team stat? Average starting field position. I don't have the stats for it, maybe Rich can provide it, but I'd be willing to bet that Miami's average starting field position for their offense was inside their own 35 yard line and possibly inside their own 30. I did a quick look at Miami's first 3 games and the average starting position was inside their own 27 yard line. They started 19 of 33 drives either at the 20 or inside their own 20. That's primarily because Miami's defense either let the opposing team score or allowed them to drive far enough down the field to pin their offense deep in it's own territory.

Now I don't put all Miami's problems on the defense, the offense sure had it's fair share of ineptitude moving the ball resulting in good field position for the opponent, but all you people that blame Tannehill for not doing enough on offense, need to take a good look at the defense and realize that the defense has gotten worse every single year that Tannehill has been the QB while Tannehill and the offense has gotten better 3 out of 4 years. Tannehill and the offense aren't solely to blame, the defense has to take a LOT of the credit.

Good stuff.  Turnover margin is indeed hugely predictive of winning.  That's been a key ingredient in Carolina's extreme success this year.

With regard to your starting field position stuff, I've often thought that one area in which analytics could help teams is in advising them when not to return a kickoff out of the end zone.  I suspect that with the changes in the rules on kickoffs, which allow kickoffs from the 35 (formerly the 30) and only a two-man wedge for the receiving team, the statistics would show that the minority of kickoffs into the end zone are brought out to at least the 20.  It'd be therefore better off to down those kicks in the end zone and take the ball on the 20.

So often we see a returner bringing a kick out from six or eight yards deep in the end zone, aided by only a two-man wedge, against a kicking team that took off from its 35.  When that happens I'm sitting there slapping my head, wondering why they don't just down it.  I don't have the stats for it, but it sure seems like the majority of those kick returns are stopped somewhere between the 10 and 15.

As for the Dolphins' defense, it was indeed terrible this year.  The addition of Suh caused none of what was expected for the defense overall.  This is primarily why we saw a regression in the team's record, despite that Tannehill and the pass offense played largely like he did last year, as did the running game.