Dolphins Analytics Thread?

[fyo]

Want another team stat? Average starting field position. I don't have the stats for it, maybe Rich can provide it, but I'd be willing to bet that Miami's average starting field position for their offense was inside their own 35 yard line and possibly inside their own 30.

EVERY team had an average starting field position inside their own 35 and only the top 4 managed to crack 30 (and just barely). The Dolphins were indeed bad, averaging a start 25.54 yards (27th) from their own endzone. However, considering that places us only 6 yards out of first place, I'm not convinced there's any major effect here.

Looking only at starting field position after kickoffs, things get a lot tighter. The league average is the 22 yard line and the standard deviation is only 1.2 yards. Miami was 24th with an average start just north of the 21 yard line.

(source)

In reality, to make any meaningful "starting field position" analysis, we need to know if the major assumption made here is actually valid (and I doubt it is):  Is starting field position linearly related to scoring?

If that is not that case, then talking about the average makes little sense if we want to know the effect on games.

I'm 100% sure that someone has run the numbers and figured out exactly how the probability of scoring varies with field position. Googling, I came up with the following:

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

At first glance the result is surprisingly linear, but a closer look reveals a few issues: It appears FGs and TDs and treated equally when looking at the black graph (the close-to-linear one) representing "probability of scoring by (first down) field position". Second, safeties and the negative effect of increased chance of the other team scoring isn't included.

Weighing touchdowns and field goals by their point values would result in a significant up-tick the closer to the opponents end zone one starts. At the other end of the field, correcting for the risk of safeties and the cost associated with the risk of really bad field position, would cause a downturn likely into the negative.

The end result would be a distribution that matches conventional wisdom pretty well: Starting way back is VERY bad, starting on your opponents half of the field is VERY good.

Without an accurate distribution (and not just my hand-waving), it's not easy to know which kickoffs should be returned and which shouldn't. Hangtime and placement of kick are, of course, significant issues that cannot be ignored, but even so, it seems plausible that returning a kick from deep in ones own endzone is a valid course of action provided that the returner can reliably get some distance (perhaps 15-20 yards) out. That is going to depend in large part on hangtime and coverage and, as such, is going to be something that a returner would need to evaluate before returning a kick.

[Dolfanalyst]

Without an accurate distribution (and not just my hand-waving), it's not easy to know which kickoffs should be returned and which shouldn't. Hangtime and placement of kick are, of course, significant issues that cannot be ignored, but even so, it seems plausible that returning a kick from deep in ones own endzone is a valid course of action provided that the returner can reliably get some distance (perhaps 15-20 yards) out. That is going to depend in large part on hangtime and coverage and, as such, is going to be something that a returner would need to evaluate before returning a kick.

One seemingly intelligent approach would be to have the player alongside the returner take a look at how far down the field the coverage team has gotten just before the return man catches the ball (which would incorporate the hang-time of the kick), make a determination based on that and where the returner is, and communicate the decision to the return man.  We see this often, but again, my feeling is that too many of those returns in the end zone are being brought out.

If starting way back in one's own territory is indeed very bad, then obviously you want to avoid that, and go ahead and take the ball on the 20 when it makes sense to do so.  That also avoids the possibility of a fumble on the return, which, while rare, probably results in points for the opposition the vast majority of the time.

The frequency of "smashing success" on kick returns just seems so rare that the strategy instead ought to be one that minimizes risk.

[fyo]

^ There are teams that employ a secondary guy to basically tell the returner when not to take it out of the endzone. There was one instance in the game against the Patriots last Sunday when the (NE) returner looked like he was going to bring the ball out and was then stopped by one of his own guys visibly signalling for him not to return the ball.

[Pappy13]

EVERY team had an average starting field position inside their own 35 and only the top 4 managed to crack 30 (and just barely). The Dolphins were indeed bad, averaging a start 25.54 yards (27th) from their own endzone. However, considering that places us only 6 yards out of first place, I'm not convinced there's any major effect here.

6 yards difference on 184 drives. That's 1,104 extra yards for the season that Miami had to move the ball then the team in 1st place. That's about 70 yards a game. You don't think that's significant? I disagree.

[fyo]

6 yards difference on 184 drives. That's 1,104 extra yards for the season that Miami had to move the ball then the team in 1st place. You don't think that's significant? I disagree.

You can sum up the yards, but that doesn't necessarily make for a valid comparison. Instead you'd need to look at what value 6 yards represent and see if that extra "expected scoring" would be in any way meaningful for any game. Hint: It would not.

Not the 6 yards, anyway, which was my point. Scoring isn't linearly related to field position, so while starting on the 26 or 32 isn't going to make much of a difference, starting on the 15 five times and on your opponents one yard line once WILL make a difference compared to starting on the 29 every time.

[Pappy13]

You can sum up the yards, but that doesn't necessarily make for a valid comparison.

You can blow it off as nothing too, doesn't necessarily make it a valid position.

[masterfins]

Welcome!  I'd be against adding more analytics to games while broadcasting.  I just want the entertainment of enjoying the game.  It's already annoying enough to listen to some of the broadcasters, and their pre scripted comments.  Just give me the yards, downs, etc. and let me watch.  Putting more data into the stream would be like adding a new military rank of Corporal Captain.

After reading the forums for the past two weeks, let me expand my prior statement above to add, PLEASE less statistical crap in forums also.  It detracts from the enjoyment of the site.

BTW, where's MikeO been hiding?  Did he go and get suspended again?

[Tenshot13]

After reading the forums for the past two weeks, let me expand my prior statement above to add, PLEASE less statistical crap in forums also.  It detracts from the enjoyment of the site.

BTW, where's MikeO been hiding?  Did he go and get suspended again?

He's not coming back. He sent a farewell email to all the fantasy football participants that there are too many morons on this site for him to enjoy himself or something.

[Pappy13]

He's not coming back. He sent a farewell email to all the fantasy football participants that there are too many morons on this site for him to enjoy himself or something.

I don't think there are too many it's just that the morons (and the non dolphins fans) are rather loud. Would really help this site a ton if the "ignore" button worked. If it were me (and it's not, so I'm not complaining), it'd be the first thing that I'd get fixed.

[Sunstroke]

He's not coming back. He sent a farewell email to all the fantasy football participants that there are too many morons on this site for him to enjoy himself or something.

He was browsing here as recently as today. When it comes to MikeO, I can take him or leave him. I appreciate the fact that he is a true Phins fan, and he definitely was prolific in his posting. I wasn't really a big fan of the "Gospel According to MikeO" attitude though. That's really the only thing I gave him grief over.

[EKnight]

He couldn't come back if he wanted to. He was banned for (repeatedly) making posts about my wife and daughter.

[mecadonzilla]

Good riddance. That farewell letter to the fantasy football folks exceeded the FDA's recommended daily allowance of smarminess.

[CF DolFan]

He was browsing here as recently as today. When it comes to MikeO, I can take him or leave him. I appreciate the fact that he is a true Phins fan, and he definitely was prolific in his posting. I wasn't really a big fan of the "Gospel According to MikeO" attitude though. That's really the only thing I gave him grief over.

He's actually a great and intelligent poster ... he just needs to learn some communication skills. Opinion and fact are two different things and he has a really hard time of understanding that others do not take his opinion as fact. As well, he attacks others opinions as if they have no right to have one. What is the saying ...people who are always right end up being the loneliest people. It's sometimes better to be quiet than right. Haha ... I guess that can be said about a lot of people in here.

[Sunstroke]

Good riddance. That farewell letter to the fantasy football folks exceeded the FDA's recommended daily allowance of smarminess.

I must have missed that...

[masterfins]

He's actually a great and intelligent poster ... he just needs to learn some communication skills. Opinion and fact are two different things and he has a really hard time of understanding that others do not take his opinion as fact. As well, he attacks others opinions as if they have no right to have one.

This about sums it up for me, like Stroke said I wasn't a fan of the "Gospel according to MikeO".  He brought a lot of good information though, and some bad.