2016 Election

[TonyB0D]

I think it's pretty clear he will be the next president.

LOL there is no reality in which Trump actually has a shot at winning.  His own party won't even give him the nomination.

[CF DolFan]

LOL there is no reality in which Trump actually has a shot at winning.  His own party won't even give him the nomination.

I think they will. While most do not want Trump the idea of not backing him and allowing Hillary back in the White House is even worse. If he gets the majority and is not selected the Republican party will cease to exist moving forward. Not many Republicans want that regardless of what they are saying now.

[Dave Gray]

The only reason Bernie is losing is because the fix was in for Hillary before a vote was even cast.  She locked up just about all of the Super Delegates, which is why she is winning.  If this were a straight up race like the GOP has Bernie would probably be winning.

This just isn't true.

Super-delegates will move to wherever the vote goes.  So, initially, they side with Clinton, but that means nothing as they will (and have...they did with Hillary/Obama) move to the eventual winner to secure the nomination.  The aren't bound to a candidate.  You can't "lock them up", as you put it.  The purpose of this is to reduce the odds of a brokered convention for someone who wins the most delegates, but doesn't have enough to cross the finish line.  They want to avoid a situation like the GOP is in right now.

Sanders is still losing, without super-delegates.  It's because he's winning some places, but he's winning close.  Hillary is losing some places close and then trouncing with others, as well as with the black vote.

Without super-delegates, Clinton leads 760-546.  It's not insurmountable or anything, but it's 1 1/2 times the delegates to this point.  Florida and Ohio will be interesting and will probably decide it.  They are "winner take all".  Bernie needs at least one, but really both to make a push to pass Hillary.  We'll see.  Voting on Tuesday.

[Spider-Dan]

The only reason Bernie is losing is because the fix was in for Hillary before a vote was even cast.  She locked up just about all of the Super Delegates, which is why she is winning.  If this were a straight up race like the GOP has Bernie would probably be winning.

Hillary has received the most actual votes of any candidate, on either side, in this primary season.  And it's not even close.  Even if you completely exclude superdelegates, her delegate lead over Bernie is over twice as big as Trump's delegate lead over Cruz.

Everyone complained about superdelegates in 2008 too, when they were all lined up behind Hillary at the start.  But once Obama started beating her in the actual primaries, they jumped over to him.  Superdelegates are a non-issue.

Florida and Ohio will be interesting and will probably decide it.  They are "winner take all".

Democrats do not do "winner takes all" in their primaries, which is why Hillary's already-huge lead is really even bigger than it looks.  All Dem primaries/caucuses are proportional, which means that Bernie cannot simply win states 52-48 like he did with Michigan last night; he will have to start winning large states 80-20 to catch up in delegates.  That is highly unlikely, to put it mildly.

[Spider-Dan]

I think they will. While most do not want Trump the idea of not backing him and allowing Hillary back in the White House is even worse. If he gets the majority and is not selected the Republican party will cease to exist moving forward. Not many Republicans want that regardless of what they are saying now.

Many Republicans have come out plainly and said that they would prefer Hillary to win over Trump.

If Hillary wins, the GOP is set back for 4 years.
If Trump wins, Reagan conservatism is dead and the party will be fundamentally reshaped.  The GOP would potentially become a European-style right-wing party: nativist authoritarians (which describes Trump to a tee).

You are correct to point out that stealing the nomination from Trump (if he has the most delegates) would break the party apart from within.  Most of the #NeverTrump crew seem resigned to letting him have his (fairly earned) nomination and then hoping he loses in the general.

[Dave Gray]

Democrats do not do "winner takes all" in their primaries, which is why Hillary's already-huge lead is really even bigger than it looks. 

No kidding.  That makes sense.  A lot, actually.  Thanks.