Tannehill and the Offensive Line

[Dolfanalyst]

Something I stumbled across when perusing another Dolphins fan forum:

The hate Tannehill crowd thinks that those of us who support him are in love with the guy.  In reality, all we ask is an actual NFL caliber OL to judge him behind.  This OL has consistently been among the worst in the league during his tenure so far.  I believe he is the highest sacked QB, with most of those coming before he can ever even set his feet.

There are a bevy of misconceptions here.

1) The Dolphins' offensive line has been "NFL caliber," and throughout Tannehill's tenure.  What we've been seeing the last two weeks, on the other hand, is perhaps as good as an offensive line can possibly function in the NFL.

2) Tannehill most certainly is the most-sacked QB in the league since 2012 (his rookie year), though to what or whom do we attribute that?  The frequency of pressure the line has surrendered has been non-significantly different from that of the average line in the league.  So when a QB is pressured just as much as the average QB, but is sacked considerably more often than the average QB, who is the likely culprit?

3) The correlation between Tannehill's most important passing numbers (QB rating and YPA) and the number of sacks he's taken, on a game-by-game basis, is very weak.  That suggests that if he were sacked significantly less, his numbers wouldn't improve significantly.  In other words, the relationship between sacks and QB performance for Tannehill is weak.  And that's the case, as well, throughout the league.

And here's the clincher:

4) Let's suppose hypothetically that the Dolphins' offensive line functioning was among the league's best during the past two games.  Tannehill's average QB rating for those games was 98.4.  His career QB rating is 85.4, so by providing Tannehill with perhaps the best possible offensive line functioning in the league (again, hypothetically), we achieve for him a 13-point increase in his QB rating.

QB ratings between 97 and 100 (roughly what Tannehill's done over the past two games) since 2004 (the year the rules were changed to favor the passing game) have been associated with a 136-98 overall record, or a 58 win percentage (roughly six wins out of every 10 games).

Now, let's take a look at what would happen if Russell Wilson -- a QB who's offensive line has surrendered among the league's highest frequencies of pressure during the same period of time (2012-2016) -- was afforded with hypothetically the best offensive line functioning in the league.

Wilson's career QB rating is 100.5.  If we provide Wilson with the offensive line enhancement that would produce the same 13-point increase in his QB rating Tannehill has enjoyed the past two games, Wilson's QB rating would be 113.5.  A 112 to 115 QB rating has been associated with a 112-34 record in the league since 2004, or a 77 win percentage.

So -- again hypothetically -- if you give Tannehill the best offensive line in the league, you attain a win percentage (58%) eight percent better than the league-wide average (50%).  On the other hand, were you to give the likes of Russell Wilson the same offensive line enhancement, you would make your team likely to win 3 out of every four games.

These figures translate to 9-7 (Tannehill) and 12-4 (Wilson) regular season records, respectively.

And this is likely a conservative estimate for Wilson, because again, his offensive line has been considerably worse than Tannehill's.  And so by providing him with the best offensive line functioning in the league, you may very well increase his QB rating even higher than 113.5!

So, when folks say, "if Tannehill only had [insert team enhancement]," they should consider what that would actually do in reality.  That can actually be more or less determined mathematically, and there should be an appreciation of 1) where Tannehill is currently (an 85.4) rating, 2) how poor his line has been in reality (not different from the league average), 3) how much better he actually plays when his line does play significantly better (the last two weeks), and 4) what that would do, if it became consistent, to the team's probability of winning.

Usually none of these considerations are offered.  It's usually only something along the lines of the quote above, which anybody can sit back and say without any effort.

[CF DolFan]

Oh look. Another post from Dolphanalyst bashing Tannehill. You really need to post about something else once in a while or else we are going to be forced to move them to the Anti-Fins section or delete them all together.  I mean this seriously when I say you have an unhealthy need to want people to agree with you in your hatred for Tanny.

With that said your assessment that "The Dolphins' offensive line has been "NFL caliber," and throughout Tannehill's tenure" is so outrageous that nothing stated after that is even remotely relatable.

[Dolfanalyst]

As I've said since his rookie year, this is the huge missing piece in Tannehill's game:

Here are the most important points [Clyde] Christensen made. And these are worth digesting:

• Head coach Adam Gase has encouraged Tannehill to run. “You’re a good athlete. Don’t be afraid. One, two seconds, pull that thing down and… you don’t understand how valuable your legs are in this whole thing.”

• When things don’t unfold perfectly, making an “off-schedule play” is critical.

• Tannehill is getting “more and more comfortable” taking off.

• Christensen had the same learning curve with Andrew Luck. “When do you protect yourself? When do you not protect yourself? When do you put yourself out there? When do you sit in there and hang and see if your third read comes open? When do you pull it down and go run for a first down? That’s the hardest teach, in my opinion, with quarterbacks, is how do you teach that?”

• This is fascinating. Christensen has actually trained with fighter pilots, asking these questions: ‘Hey, how do you teach when to engage?  When not to engage? When to sell out? When to put yourself at risk?”

Tannehill can be a much more dangerous NFL weapon if he utilizes all of his strengths more often. Christensen and Gase have been drilling it into Tannehill’s head and it’s working.

http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2016/11/03/run-ryan-miami-dolphins-tannehill-learns-how-and-when-to-run/

This is the main difference between Tannehill and Russell Wilson.

[fyo]

To me, these are mainly coaching issues. Tannehill has had pretty bad coaching, if we are to believe what has been said (e.g. no way to change out of a bad play, no real input into game plans or play selections, etc.). Play selection has been extremely limited under at least some of his four offensive coordinators (perhaps because they never stuck around for more than a  season?). He was also asked NOT to run in his first year, despite appearing to want to. I don't think any of us fans are blind to the increased injury risks, but it seems like we've all been wanting to see more runs (designed or not) from him ever since... well, the beginning.

This raises the questions, at what point is it too late to change much with coaching? Is it ever? Certainly, there are issues with habits and overcoming them is never trivial. Just read the comments from Ja'Wuan James on trying to adapt to a new blocking scheme, or look at the issues Maxwell has been having trying to playing something other than Cover 3.

[Dolfanalyst]

To me, these are mainly coaching issues. Tannehill has had pretty bad coaching, if we are to believe what has been said (e.g. no way to change out of a bad play, no real input into game plans or play selections, etc.). Play selection has been extremely limited under at least some of his four offensive coordinators (perhaps because they never stuck around for more than a  season?). He was also asked NOT to run in his first year, despite appearing to want to. I don't think any of us fans are blind to the increased injury risks, but it seems like we've all been wanting to see more runs (designed or not) from him ever since... well, the beginning.

This raises the questions, at what point is it too late to change much with coaching? Is it ever? Certainly, there are issues with habits and overcoming them is never trivial. Just read the comments from Ja'Wuan James on trying to adapt to a new blocking scheme, or look at the issues Maxwell has been having trying to playing something other than Cover 3.

This is why I've never closed the book on Tannehill.  He certainly has the ability to move, and move well.  He just needs to do on a regular basis what he did against Buffalo, in terms of being aware of and evading pressure with movement.

There are far more plays to be made from the QB position than he's made during his career, and those plays are both 1) ones he can make simply by running when no one is open, and 2) ones he makes downfield after buying himself and his receivers more time with his movement and evasion of pressure.

It's easy to watch someone play and see what he's doing, but one needs also to consider what he's not doing, or what you aren't seeing.

[hordman]

Tannehill is not the answer long term, unless he makes a miraculous turnaround by season's end.  I've seen enough of him that if they were draft or trade for someone else after this season, I'm ok with it.

I truly have no faith in him to lead the Phins back from a deficit late in the game or make the throws when the game is on the line.  Yes, the BUF game he did lead them back, but did he really or was more so the running of Ajayi that broke that game open for them?

Throws yesterday that stick out in mind:
1.  3rd and 5 from NYJ 15  R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to M.Gray
I hate to think that was the playcall to go to his 1st read.  he didn't even look at anyone else, he was going there from the get go.  Gray was blanketed and was still on the line of scrimmage & wouldn't have gained a yard

2.  3rd and 2 at NYJ 6 R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to J.Ajayi
OMG This was almost returned for a Pick 6  Tannehill was going here the WHOLE time and didn't even sell it downfield, so damn lucky here it's not even funny. 

3. 3rd and 4 at NYJ 49 R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to L.Carroo
Carroo got behind the Jets secondary and this should have been an easy pitch & catch and a way to put the Phins in comfortable situation.  Camera pans to Tannehill walking off the field chuckling to himself. WTF?  Seriously.

In all cases, these are plays that a rookie or 2nd yr QB makes.  NOT a 5th guy under center.

I can't stress how much MIA Off Line and Ajayi's running game has masked Tannehill's shortcomings. I know there has been reference to Alex Smith, but Smith is at least smarter and can make the throws when he has to.  RT cannot and will not.

[Dolfanalyst]

Tannehill is not the answer long term, unless he makes a miraculous turnaround by season's end.  I've seen enough of him that if they were draft or trade for someone else after this season, I'm ok with it.

I truly have no faith in him to lead the Phins back from a deficit late in the game or make the throws when the game is on the line.  Yes, the BUF game he did lead them back, but did he really or was more so the running of Ajayi that broke that game open for them?

Throws yesterday that stick out in mind:
1.  3rd and 5 from NYJ 15  R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to M.Gray
I hate to think that was the playcall to go to his 1st read.  he didn't even look at anyone else, he was going there from the get go.  Gray was blanketed and was still on the line of scrimmage & wouldn't have gained a yard

2.  3rd and 2 at NYJ 6 R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to J.Ajayi
OMG This was almost returned for a Pick 6  Tannehill was going here the WHOLE time and didn't even sell it downfield, so damn lucky here it's not even funny. 

3. 3rd and 4 at NYJ 49 R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to L.Carroo
Carroo got behind the Jets secondary and this should have been an easy pitch & catch and a way to put the Phins in comfortable situation.  Camera pans to Tannehill walking off the field chuckling to himself. WTF?  Seriously.

In all cases, these are plays that a rookie or 2nd yr QB makes.  NOT a 5th guy under center.

I can't stress how much MIA Off Line and Ajayi's running game has masked Tannehill's shortcomings. I know there has been reference to Alex Smith, but Smith is at least smarter and can make the throws when he has to.  RT cannot and will not.

These are all good points, but then again Tannehill threw a beautiful pass to Damien Williams down the sideline for a long gain.  Perhaps that's why it's so tough to give up on him.  He does have lots of tools.

Is there anyone here who didn't breathe a sigh of relief when Kenyan Drake returned the kickoff for the touchdown, thereby lifting the burden on Tannehill to drive the team down the field for the go-ahead score relatively late in the game?

That's perhaps your measure of your comfort with Tannehill as a QB, and your underlying belief in his effectiveness.  Do you want the game in his hands, or not?

The Alex Smith comparison is a good one.  When he's had a good running game and a good defense, his teams have been highly competitive and have come fairly close to the Super Bowl.

But what would you rather have, a QB who's presence alone puts you into Super Bowl contention more often that not, by virtue of his own play, or one who needs rare and unlikely levels of talent around him for the team to be as competitive?

This is the third game in a row the Dolphins have won, and notice that in each Tannehill has functioned within an Alex Smith-esque, game manager role.

We have a supposed "QB whisperer" head coach, who was brought here and paid a hefty salary to get the most out of Ryan Tannehill, and after five games and a 1-4 record, we have Tannehill's use modified significantly and relegated to a game manager role, which then produces a three-game win streak.

Does that not say it all?

[hordman]

Is there anyone here who didn't breathe a sigh of relief when Kenyan Drake returned the kickoff for the touchdown, thereby lifting the burden on Tannehill to drive the team down the field for the go-ahead score relatively late in the game?

That's perhaps your measure of your comfort with Tannehill as a QB, and your underlying belief in his effectiveness.  Do you want the game in his hands, or not?

I did breathe a huge sigh of relief (and hey, maybe Ryan did too) when Kenyan ran that KO back for the TD, the lead and ultimately the win.

You are right about the throw to Damien Williams, but the problem is these are not always consistent and the bad throws outweigh the good throws.

Don't get me wrong, I WANT him to succeed, he has what seems like the tools to get it done, big guy, above avg arm, can take the hits, etc.  I keep waiting for that "light bulb to go off" and him realize "I got this"

If he was more consistent, and with the recent play of Ajayi and a healthy OL, this team would be going places.  Let's hope this good winning feelings continue on the West Coast next week vs Chargers.

Let's Go Phins!!!!

[Dolfanalyst]

An article from the Herald about Tannehill's new game manager role:

The identity of the Dolphins has come into focus, and the ascension of Jay Ajayi (who had another 111 yards Sunday) the last month has meant less of Tannehill. The Dolphins quarterback has thrown no more than 32 passes the last three games; he had 113 attempts in the Dolphins’ first three. Not coincidentally, two of those three early games were losses.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article112970453.html#storylink=cpy

If Tannehill continues to play this way in this role, he's going to also have to continue to threw very few interceptions.  He's thrown zero during the three-game win streak, after throwing seven during the first five games of the year, which was among the worst stretches of his career in that regard.

If you look at Alex Smith's most successful seasons, he had very low interception rates those seasons.

If your quarterback's talent necessitates a game manager role, where the other parts of the team (running game, defense) have responsibility for winning games, then the QB has to make damned sure not to lose games by throwing interceptions.

[fyo]

2.  3rd and 2 at NYJ 6 R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to J.Ajayi
OMG This was almost returned for a Pick 6  Tannehill was going here the WHOLE time and didn't even sell it downfield, so damn lucky here it's not even funny. 

Bad decision, but if the offensive lineman (think it was James) had done ANYTHING to touch his man, the receiver would have been completely open.

In all cases, these are plays that a rookie or 2nd yr QB makes.  NOT a 5th guy under center.

You need to watch more football. Every game I watch, I see top quarterbacks making a handful of bad decisions a game. Happens all the time.

The story of this game was the offensive line. It completely set the tone (or lack of it) by getting dominated. Our running backs were getting hit in the backfield on all but a few carries. Tannehill had NO time to throw and the game was called accordingly. I don't particularly like that decisions; I really think the Dolphins should have tried to go (medium) long some more, particularly early. Ju'Wuan James had a horrible game. He was getting beat on pretty much every play 1-on-1.

There were some scheme issues as well. Several safety and linebacker blitzes were not picked up and came through untouched. That's gotta change. I'd have to go back and see who was supposed to pick it up, but considering we had someone in the backfield on almost every play, someone almost certainly messed up. That has to be addressed or things are going to go very, very wrong.

I love that we finally have a power back again, because then at least all those tackles for a loss are coupled with a few breakthroughs.

[Dolfanalyst]

The story of this game was the offensive line. It completely set the tone (or lack of it) by getting dominated. Our running backs were getting hit in the backfield on all but a few carries. Tannehill had NO time to throw and the game was called accordingly. I don't particularly like that decisions; I really think the Dolphins should have tried to go (medium) long some more, particularly early. Ju'Wuan James had a horrible game. He was getting beat on pretty much every play 1-on-1.

This is what happens, however, when a running back rushes for over 200 yards in consecutive games.  The next team is going to gear up physically and emotionally to defend the run, and if they have any semblance of talent in their run defense (and the Jets do), the outcome will likely be what we saw.

Remember that there is another team out there, with its own talents, emotions, and motivations.  We can't always blame things on what's happening within our own team.

Like I said before this game, this was likely going to be a game in which the Dolphins had to reverse their recent offensive trend by using the passing game to offset the Jets' emphasis on stopping the run.

The problem, however, is that the Dolphins don't have much of a passing game, and so you can get what you saw Sunday -- an opposing team that can sell out to stop one dimension of the offense, and has the talent do so relatively successfully.

The Dolphins won this game because they had a 2-0 turnover margin, and because Kenyan Drake accounted for the seven points the passing offense would've needed to generate (but couldn't) to win.

Change either of those things -- the turnover margin or Drake's return -- and the Dolphins likely lose, simply because they couldn't counter the Jets' run defense with an effective passing game.

Remember, you have to relegate Ryan Tannehill to the role of a game manager to get him to stop throwing interceptions at a clip of seven over five games, or else you don't enjoy 2-0 turnover margins like this one, and you don't win games like these.

The consequence, however, is that you have a weak and non-explosive passing game.

This game was unfortunately a preview of what you'd likely see from the Dolphins in the playoffs, where they'd face teams with stout run defenses and couldn't just march over them with the run game as they did in the two games prior to the Jets.  They'd be forced to win the game through the air, and a QB with the talent of only a game manager is going to have trouble doing that.

This is typically where the game manager QB falters -- in the playoffs, where QBs often have to win games, not just manage them.

[fyo]

The problem, however, is that the Dolphins don't have much of a passing game, and so you can get what you saw Sunday -- an opposing team that can sell out to stop one dimension of the offense, and has the talent do so relatively successfully.

But that's not (just) what they did. Their defenders didn't just stop the run, they dominated to the extent that they owned our backfield. You can't have a passing game with that kind of pressure.

The kind of pressure brought by the Jets should leave them open downfield, but there was almost never any TIME for Tannehill to let the play develop enough that he could throw it downfield. Our receivers were also having major problems getting separation. If you watch this game again, notice how easily Revis follows Landry downfield. Part of that was because he (Revis) gave some cushion at the line, but the Dolphins / Tannehill didn't really try and get the ball out quickly to Landry to force him closer to the line.

It also didn't help that Stills, our supposed deep threat, was sick from the get-go and didn't see the field after halftime. Stills got an IV before the game, but apparently it wasn't enough and he clearly wasn't feeling well.

This was exactly the type of game that the team hasn't figured out how to handle offensively and the number of 3rd and long plays was ridiculous. Much of that was on ineffective running on 1st and 2nd down. If you keep finding yourself in 3rd and long, that's setting your quarterback up for trouble.

Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled the Dolphins won the game, but NOTHING was working offensively until that last drive when the Jets seemed to break. Not the running game, not the passing game. And much of that was on the offensive line getting completely dominated. Very rarely do you win games when your offensive line gets its collective ass handed to itself like that. Very rarely.

[Baba Booey]

God you people are miserable. Fins win 3 in a row and you aren't happy because they didn't look pretty enough in your eyes.

I swear some of you hope they lose just so you can bitch more. Im not even sure some of you are actual fans

[Dolfanalyst]

The kind of pressure brought by the Jets should leave them open downfield, but there was almost never any TIME for Tannehill to let the play develop enough that he could throw it downfield.

So then that sort of analysis begs the question:  why don't defenses throughout the league bring that sort of pressure on every play, against every team?

If the result is penetration into the opposing backfield such that the opposing team can't run and has no time to throw downfield, why not do it all the time?

[Dolfanalyst]

God you people are miserable. Fins win 3 in a row and you aren't happy because they didn't look pretty enough in your eyes.

I swear some of you hope they lose just so you can bitch more. Im not even sure some of you are actual fans

Do you want to win just three games, or a Super Bowl?

If in the midst of winning three games you see weaknesses that Super Bowl winners don't typically exhibit, it may color your optimism a bit.