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Author Topic: Dare I say it.....Playoffs?  (Read 2924 times)
hordman
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« on: November 28, 2016, 07:50:38 am »

After the KC comeback on DEN last nite, Dolphins are the recipient of the last playoff spot in the AFC as the 6th seed.

I know, I know, 5 games to go and plenty of missteps might be on the way, but it's nice to talk about meaningful football games this late in the season.

I think it's possible to go 4-1 down the stretch, but I also think it's possible to go 2-3 and be left out of the playoffs.  Big game in BAL this weekend, a place and team that MIA has struggled with the last several times.

I think they win this week, they will beat ARI at home and then it's AFC East foes to finish off this season

Let's Go Phins!!!!!
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2016, 09:26:18 am »

A definite possibility if:  1) Tannehill continues to play well, 2) the turnover margin doesn't revert to what it was during the 1-4 start, and 3) the Dolphins can get their linemen healthy and get the run game going against the better teams they'll play.

I don't think you can rely on continuing to have such a lopsided turnover margin against the better teams in the league.  They'll need to establish Ajayi against those teams like they did against Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and New York.  Not necessarily 200+ yards, but much better than what happened yesterday.

This week will be an interesting test, because Baltimore has the best run defense in the league, and again, I don't think anyone should go into any game expecting the same lopsided turnover margin the team has enjoyed the last six weeks.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2016, 11:18:27 am »

Dolphins are 4-point underdogs today.  Glad to see that.  No reason they should be favored on the road against a mediocre or better team.  That'd be an insult to the opposing team and would likely increase their motivation.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2016, 05:08:01 pm »

I think you need 4 out of the next five to get in.  Three wins it is mathematically possible but I doubt it would be enough.  Ya got about 50 50 odds at this point.
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fyo
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2016, 06:05:05 pm »

^ I like that you think the Dolphins have a 50/50 shot at winning 4 out of the last 5 games.

Assuming the Dolphins are still in it, those week 17 games could really get interesting. It's quite easy to imagine a scenario where the Raiders and Patriots are still playing for the first overall seed in the final week of the season. The Raiders play the Broncos, while the Pats play the Dolphins, of course.

The Chiefs might look a lock for one of the wild cards, but it isn't inconceivable that they lose 3 out of their next 4 and wind up with 10 wins. In that scenario the Broncos would almost certainly reach 10 wins as well, with a week 17 game remaining against a Raiders team that might have nothing to play for.

There are just so many possibilities at this point, it's hard to say much of anything.

Personally, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Dolphins lost 3 of their next 4 games. Baltimore is basically a better version of the Rams and this one is on the road. Buffalo on the road is never easy and it wouldn't exactly be shocking if the Dolphins lost either away against the Jets or at home against the Cardinals.

I don't see us getting more than 10 wins in pretty much any scenario, although if the oline suddenly gets healthy and maybe Xavian Howard as well... The Dolphins roster just seems paper thin, to be honest, and barely beating one of the worst teams in the league doesn't bode all that well.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2016, 06:17:06 pm »

I think ya got a 50/50 shot at playoffs all sinarios included. 
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2016, 06:42:48 pm »

^ I like that you think the Dolphins have a 50/50 shot at winning 4 out of the last 5 games.

Assuming the Dolphins are still in it, those week 17 games could really get interesting. It's quite easy to imagine a scenario where the Raiders and Patriots are still playing for the first overall seed in the final week of the season. The Raiders play the Broncos, while the Pats play the Dolphins, of course.

The Chiefs might look a lock for one of the wild cards, but it isn't inconceivable that they lose 3 out of their next 4 and wind up with 10 wins. In that scenario the Broncos would almost certainly reach 10 wins as well, with a week 17 game remaining against a Raiders team that might have nothing to play for.

There are just so many possibilities at this point, it's hard to say much of anything.

Personally, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Dolphins lost 3 of their next 4 games. Baltimore is basically a better version of the Rams and this one is on the road. Buffalo on the road is never easy and it wouldn't exactly be shocking if the Dolphins lost either away against the Jets or at home against the Cardinals.

I don't see us getting more than 10 wins in pretty much any scenario, although if the oline suddenly gets healthy and maybe Xavian Howard as well... The Dolphins roster just seems paper thin, to be honest, and barely beating one of the worst teams in the league doesn't bode all that well.

I agree with this, and I think people have to realize just how much a team benefits from a +9 turnover margin over six games, and the tremendous uncertainty regarding whether that will continue.

This is why the team has to get back to hammering Ajayi with great success.  There simply has to be some other component of the team to rely on to continue this sort of success.  You can't rely on a +1.5 per-game turnover margin.

Tannehill is doing his part in the passing game -- nothing needs to change there.  But he needs some help, and it has to come from something more reliable than turnovers.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2016, 11:08:28 pm »

I think you need 4 out of the next five to get in.  Three wins it is mathematically possible but I doubt it would be enough.  Ya got about 50 50 odds at this point.
If the Dolphins win 3 more they will be in the playoffs, I guarantee it.
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« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2016, 02:15:40 pm »

I'm thinking 3 are needed, not 4.

I'd say that there are about 3 50/50 games:
Buffalo
Arizona
Baltimore

All will be quality, tough wins.  You need 2 of 3.  It'll be hard.

Then, you really should beat the Jets, I think.

And the Patriots, though possible, you have to think you won't have a very good chance.

Unfortunately, I think it's more likely that we do not make the playoffs, but we'll see, I suppose.  If we can beat Baltimore, it flips.
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2016, 03:07:49 pm »

I'm thinking 3 are needed, not 4.

I'd say that there are about 3 50/50 games:
Buffalo
Arizona
Baltimore

All will be quality, tough wins.  You need 2 of 3.  It'll be hard.

Then, you really should beat the Jets, I think.

And the Patriots, though possible, you have to think you won't have a very good chance.

Unfortunately, I think it's more likely that we do not make the playoffs, but we'll see, I suppose.  If we can beat Baltimore, it flips.

I think the dolphins are dogs at buffalo and Baltimore. And the jets will be looking to play spoiler at home. No way 3 wins gets in. I don't even think 3 would get them second place in the division.
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Baba Booey
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2016, 07:40:38 pm »

I think the dolphins are dogs at buffalo and Baltimore. And the jets will be looking to play spoiler at home. No way 3 wins gets in. I don't even think 3 would get them second place in the division.

What Buffalo is going to win 11 games this year?

Where do you people come up with this stuff.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2016, 08:35:57 pm »

4 wins might win the division especially if one of the 4 is against NE. There's a scenario where the Dolphins don't win another game and still make the playoffs.

Playoff Machine
« Last Edit: November 29, 2016, 08:54:45 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2016, 09:31:03 am »

Mod Note:  this thread is for discussing playoff scenarios not individual players. 
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Tenshot13
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2016, 09:51:42 am »

A&O colored glasses on, we win out, take that momentum into the playoffs, win our first game, lose a nail-biter in the second.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2016, 10:25:46 am »

A&O colored glasses on, we win out, take that momentum into the playoffs, win our first game, lose a nail-biter in the second.

Being you are already in fantasy land you might as well go all the way and say the dolphins win the next nine.
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