Give me Herbert over Tua.

[Tenshot13]

I think reading progressions is overrated. Great QB's don't go through progressions, there's really not enough time to check on each receiver to see if they are open, they see the entire field or at least they see what they need to see to know who the open receiver should be and they get the ball to the right guy. I remember once they asked Dan Marino how he did it and he said "Pick a guy and let it fly". You didn't see him going through progressions he just knew based on the coverage and the routes run who was the right guy to throw to and he had enough arm talent to get the ball to him no matter who it was or where that was. That's a great QB. Now I don't know enough about Herbert to know if he can do that, but he's proven whatever he does, he does it pretty well.

I find this to be a really bad take.  You don't want a QB that can read progressions?  One or two read QBs don't make it in the NFL.  I don't have time to go into a big "who's right" argument, so we can just disagree on this one.

[Spider-Dan]

I agree.  "Just get a guy with Marino's arm talent" is... not a sound approach to drafting QBs.

[Pappy13]

I find this to be a really bad take.  You don't want a QB that can read progressions?  One or two read QBs don't make it in the NFL.  I don't have time to go into a big "who's right" argument, so we can just disagree on this one.

I don't like the terminology of reading progression. To me that says you look at receiver X and see if he's open and if he is you throw it to him and if he's not you then move to receiver Y and you do the same thing and so on to receiver Z. There's not enough time for that in the NFL in my humble opinion. Great QB's don't do that or at least you don't see them doing that in my opinion. They read the coverage and based on the coverage they know that X, Y or Z is the best option for the play called and they go with the best option unless the guy is just blanketed or falls down or runs a route different then what they expected or something like that. Now maybe it happens so fast you can't really see them doing it but they still are, but if that's the case then it's all moot anyway since neither Herbert or Love are to that point in their development anyway and are both going to have to get to that point. Besides Herbert completes a higher percentage of his passes then Love so either Herbert's better at selecting the right guy to throw to without going through as many progressions or he's just better at completing passes despite the fact that he's not picking the right guy as often. Either way, I want the guy who completes a higher percentage of passes with fewer picks not the other way around I don't give a shit how he does it.

[Pappy13]

I agree.  "Just get a guy with Marino's arm talent" is... not a sound approach to drafting QBs.

And yet if you find a guy that can consistently complete 60% of his passes and keep his interception rate low, maybe it's not that important how he does it, just that he does it. Not all QB's are created equal and can just be fit into some formula to give you the right answer. There's more to evaluating talent then just checking off all the right boxes as well.

[Tenshot13]

I don't like the terminology of reading progression. To me that says you look at receiver X and see if he's open and if he is you throw it to him and if he's not you then move to receiver Y and you do the same thing and so on to receiver Z. There's not enough time for that in the NFL in my humble opinion. Great QB's don't do that or at least you don't see them doing that in my opinion. They read the coverage and based on the coverage they know that X, Y or Z is the best option for the play called and they go with the best option unless the guy is just blanketed or falls down or runs a route different then what they expected or something like that. Now maybe it happens so fast you can't really see them doing it but they still are, but if that's the case then it's all moot anyway since neither Herbert or Love are to that point in their development anyway and are both going to have to get to that point. Besides Herbert completes around 60% of his passes the same as Love so either Herbert's better at selecting the right guy to throw to without going through as many progressions or he's just better at completing passes despite the fact that he's not picking the right guy as much. Either way, I want the guy who completes a higher percentage of passes with fewer picks not the other way around I don't give a shit how he does it. As Marino said, it comes down to pick a guy and let it fly. It really is that simple.

So semantics then, we aren't too far agreeing on that part.  I group reading a defense and going through progressions together, as you need one with the other, I think most people would.  Usually a play is drawn for a primary route, with the other routes taking coverage away from that player so they are more open, but that depends on the defense.  Yes, a QB has to be able to read a defense which in turn gives the QB the opportunity to read who is open, i.e. progressions.  Man vs. Zone, a different receiver will be open depending on the defense, which I agree is very important.  There is a progression of reads though, say your primary is doubled, you need to go to your second or third receiver.  A good QB can read a defense, where the safeties will be and such, and go through their reads in a second, basing that off of the defense.  If you have a primary fly route and see the safety going deep while man coverage from the CB, you can assume your primary route is toast and move on to your second read.  I see Love do that with his eyes, I don't see Herbert doing that at all.

Speaking of Herbert, he plays for a much better team than Love as well.  All things being equal, I don't know if he is as good as Love, but that's something we won't know until later.

[Tenshot13]

And yet if you find a guy that can consistently complete 60% of his passes and keep his interception rate low, maybe it's not that important how he does it, just that he does it. Not all QB's are created equal and can just be fit into some formula to give you the right answer. There's more to evaluating talent then just checking off all the right boxes as well.

I'm just curious on what pro QBs complete 60% of their passes and keep their int rate low that you're speaking of?  Those sort of QBs are game managers, we want something better right?

[Pappy13]

I'm just curious on what pro QBs complete 60% of their passes and keep their int rate low that you're speaking of?  Those sort of QBs are game managers, we want something better right?

Herbert's career completion percentage is 64% and his interception percentage is 1.8%, both of which are better then Love's career numbers and pretty close to the same as Loves single season best which was 2018.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I think that Herbert's college career numbers compare pretty closely to NFL career numbers for franchise QB's in the NFL. Granted these are college numbers not NFL numbers we don't know whether or not these numbers will stand up in the NFL or not.

[Spider-Dan]

I'm just curious on what pro QBs complete 60% of their passes and keep their int rate low that you're speaking of?  Those sort of QBs are game managers, we want something better right?

Brees and Rodgers both qualify, and I doubt anyone would call them "game managers."
MIA already passed on both of them, though.

[Spider-Dan]

Herbert's career completion percentage is 64% and his interception rate is .002, both of which are better then Love's career numbers and the same as Loves single season best which was 2018.

Herbert has 23 INTs on 1293 ATTs, for an interception rate of 1.7%. (23 / 1293 = 0.01778)
I have no idea how you arrived at .002.

[Pappy13]

Herbert has 23 INTs on 1293 ATTs, for an interception rate of 1.7%. (23 / 1293 = 0.01778)
I have no idea how you arrived at .002.

I had the wrong column selected on my spreadsheet (cut and paste error). Thanks for pointing it out.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Definitely a smoke screen. Herbert was all the size and natural ability you can want but he hasn't fully put it together on the field yet where he is a no doubter in the NFL. He seems like he will be out of the league within 6 years. If we take him, I will do my best to talk myself into him but I wouldn't be optimistic.

On the plus side, the Lions are looking to trade their star corner Darius Slay and most mock drafts project them taking Jeffrey Okudah from Ohio State. So, if they trade Slay due to contract demands then they can replace him immediately if they stand pat. All depends on what offers they might get. I'm still not convinced a team will want to trade multiple 1st rounders to draft a QB with an injury history. That type of move costs people their jobs if he gets hurt.

[Tenshot13]

Brees and Rodgers both qualify, and I doubt anyone would call them "game managers."
MIA already passed on both of them, though.

I was referring to a one or two read QB with those kind of stats, should have been more clear.  Brees and Rodgers can read a defense/progressions and have those stats and are elite.  We should strive for the same kind of QB, which I don't see in Herbert.

[Spider-Dan]

On the plus side, the Lions are looking to trade their star corner Darius Slay and most mock drafts project them taking Jeffrey Okudah from Ohio State. So, if they trade Slay due to contract demands then they can replace him immediately if they stand pat. All depends on what offers they might get.

To be perfectly honest, the main reason I'm advocating for a trade with DET is to get Chase Young.

If it were anyone but Dan Snyder picking 2nd then I'd be less concerned.  But if WSH decides to get nuts, whoever is third will be in a great position.  I'd be significantly more satisfied with missing out on Tua if it means MIA picks up the best player in the draft, at a foundational position.

[EDGECRUSHER]

To be perfectly honest, the main reason I'm advocating for a trade with DET is to get Chase Young.

If it were anyone but Dan Snyder picking 2nd then I'd be less concerned.  But if WSH decides to get nuts, whoever is third will be in a great position.  I'd be significantly more satisfied with missing out on Tua if it means MIA picks up the best player in the draft, at a foundational position.

I can't see the fanbase being happy with us spending two 1st rounders on Chase Young. Detroit is not moving back for anything less than one of our 1st rounders and even then they might ask for more if someone like San Diego makes a good offer too. We have to either stay at 5 and see who is available or if Tua is taken and some team desperately wants Herbert, see what their offer is.

[Pappy13]

To be perfectly honest, the main reason I'm advocating for a trade with DET is to get Chase Young.

If it were anyone but Dan Snyder picking 2nd then I'd be less concerned.  But if WSH decides to get nuts, whoever is third will be in a great position.  I'd be significantly more satisfied with missing out on Tua if it means MIA picks up the best player in the draft, at a foundational position.

Now that makes a whole lot more sense to me. I'd also be ok with giving up a 2nd and the #5 pick to get Chase Young at #3. I would not give up another #1 pick though. I think the defense needs even more help then the offense does at this point. The only problem with that is that you won't know until after the Redskins pick whether that's possible or not and then you might be in a bidding war with a couple other teams. So I'd still advocate staying put at #5 and picking the best player available whomever you think that is. If you think that player is Tua, I'll be fine with that, but don't pick him because you are afraid of missing out on him in case he turns out to be a star. The odds are not in your favor in my opinion on him.