Kelly: Conservative quarterback picks have led Dolphins nowhere. Be bold now

[CF DolFan]

Omar is making the point that I think many of us are thinking.



In 20 years the Dolphins haven’t made one bold move to address football’s most important position. My fear this offseason is that General Manager Chris Grier, coach Brian Flores, and their staffs will let history repeat itself and then make some valid — but usually weak — excuse as to why they were conservative.

And as a byproduct, the Dolphins will continue to remain irrelevant in the national landscape, floating out at sea like the rudderless ship this franchise has resembled for two decades.

Considering the Dolphins have nearly $100 million in cap space, are projected to own 14 selections in next month’s NFL draft and also possess two first-round picks in the 2021 NFL draft, this is the time to be bold and daring.

This is the time to have a conviction about a quarterback — any quarterback — and then go get him because the resources and money are there.

If that quarterback’s LSU’s Joe Burrow, keep raising the stakes on a trade offer until the notoriously frugal and rebuilding Bengals are forced to accept it.



The full article is here
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-draft-kelly-dolphins-quarterback-20200308-k3odoteyr5ee5n6gmc6xiovu6e-story.html

[Tenshot13]

It's not Joe Burrow though, it's Tua.  We are NOT getting Burrow, no way.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Like I said elsewhere, the price for a #1 pick is very high. The price for a #1 pick to take the player that the team wants to draft? Astronomical. Only two ways Cincy trades with us:

1) Three 1st Rounders and add ons, like multiple 2nd rounders

OR

2) They draft Burrow and we draft Tua and then we trade for a little bit less now that Cincy is confident they can get a franchise QB, rather than trade down to #5 and hope Tua is still there.

We just have too many holes to trade it all away for one player, no matter how good he is.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I am not even sure what this means.  What is a bold move at QB?  Trading up to take Sanchez like the Jets did?  Or sitting back, waiting, not attempting to trade up and then drafting the 6th QB in the draft.  That is how you got Marino. 

[Phishfan]

Bullshit article. Tannehill was not a conservative QB pick. We let a QB go  that proved he was good enough with a line.  Granted that was a top flight running game.

[Spider-Dan]

I think Tannehill was a "conservative" QB pick in that MIA stayed put at #8 and was willing to take what fell to them.
The opposite would be an "aggressive" pick, which means trading up into ~top 3 for a QB you really want.

[CF DolFan]

I agree Spider. I don't think they would have to ...  but it wouldn't kill me if they gave up all three 1st round picks if they got Burrow. Personally I think they would need to get to 2 and then make the deal with Cincy from there. I find it really hard to believe Cincy would drop to 5 but they are pretty silly up there.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I agree Spider. I don't think they would have to ...  but it wouldn't kill me if they gave up all three 1st round picks if they got Burrow. Personally I think they would need to get to 2 and then make the deal with Cincy from there. I find it really hard to believe Cincy would drop to 5 but they are pretty silly up there.

I think they only drop to 5 IF Tua is still available at that spot and then we make the trade with Cincy. So, it would have to be on Draft Day. I can't see them trading down with the risk of only landing the top CB in the draft, no matter how many picks they acquired.

[Pappy13]

My problem with this article is this....

And as a byproduct, the Dolphins will continue to remain irrelevant in the national landscape, floating out at sea like the rudderless ship this franchise has resembled for two decades.

This is an opinion, not fact and not supported by any facts. In fact the Dolphins only made it to 1 Superbowl during Marino's illustrious career. Even if the Dolphins choose a QB with as great of a career that Marino had, it's no guarantee of Superbowl success.

And if anyone still doubts the player that Marino was, they need to watch the NFL's a football life about Dan Marino. Plenty of NFL players thought he was the best QB of his time including his contemporaries.

Has there been even 1 season since Marino retired where you felt the team was a QB away from a SuperBowl? Not for me there's not.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Has there been even 1 season since Marino retired where you felt the team was a QB away from a SuperBowl? Not for me there's not.

Just the first 2 seasons after he left when we had that great defense and then Ricky Williams. Since then, not one.

[masterfins]

Sorry, but I don't care who the QB is, if you don't have a surrounding cast (players & coaches) then the team won't be successful.  There are some positives now with the coaching staff based upon how the team rallied to play decent the second half the season despite the roster being gutted.  And with the slew of draft picks over the next two years, and the cap space to pick up some decent FA's, the Dolphins are poised to fill most of the holes on the offense and defense.  If those holes get filled any of the top 3 QB's drafted this year or next year could succeed.  Throwing away multiple first and second round draft picks to get a QB that MAY be marginally better is not going to be successful if there are holes all over the roster.

[Seafort]

The bold approach would be to take that #5 pick and trade it for a 1st in 2021 and a 3rd in 2020.

Then draft:

#17 - Justin Jefferson - WR
#26 - Dandre Swift - RB
#39 - Shane Lemieux - G
#56 - Lloyd Cushenberry - C

In 2021 the Dolphins would again have three first round picks. That year is the year you go all in and trade up to get Trevor Lawrence, using all ammunition available. This year is about preparing the table for the future QB

[fyo]

The bold approach would be to take that #5 pick and trade it for a 1st in 2021 and a 3rd in 2020.

*cough*

You're trading a top 5 pick for an unknown first round pick next year, plus a 3rd rounder this year.

That would be insane.

Future draft picks are generally discounted by up to a round, top-of-the-round picks even more so. It clearly depends on the specific player that is being traded up for, but if we're talking general value, that's the ballpark. One recent interview I read quoted a GM saying last pick of the round in the current draft (e.g. #32) would be the value of a first round pick in next year's draft (avg #16.5). That's #32 being worth a 1st round pick next year, plus a mid-2nd round pick this year (19th/20th in the second round) going by the vaunted draft value chart. That's pretty much in line with the 1 round discount. If you prefer the new charts produced by looking at actual draft trades over the recent years (e.g. the Rich Hill model), then you get pretty much the same thing.

Even with absolutely no discount, our #5 would be worth nearly two average 1st round picks by the classic chart, somewhat less by the newer charts. But with the future discount, we would clearly need at least two first round picks next year for our top-5 pick this year. Most teams don't have that, so more likely a first in '21 and '22, plus at least a 2nd round pick this year.

And I still wouldn't do it.

[hordman]

*cough*
You're trading a top 5 pick for an unknown first round pick next year, plus a 3rd rounder this year.
That would be insane.

Exactly. Well thought out and explained.  Ain't no way I'd do that

[Seafort]

Good feedback - I was being very conservative on what Miami could get back in trade.

It was a subject of conversation with a friend...does Miami trade back and acquire draft capital for 2021 with the idea of pulling the trigger on a trade to get up to #1 to draft Trevor Lawrence? Basically, of the following quarterbacks that the Dolphins could theoretically target in 2020 and 2021, who would you prefer?

Burrows
Tua
Hebert
Fields
Lawrence