COVID-19

[Dave Gray]

Keep in mind today’s numbers are based on behaviors from 2 weeks ago.  It is a slow feedback loop.

I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?

[CF DolFan]

I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?

This is a good question.

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?

I think it all depends on many factors. Some people are still fighting 60 days later while others died the day they went into the hospital.

[Dave Gray]

I think it all depends on many factors. Some people are still fighting 60 days later while others died the day they went into the hospital.

I am not qualified to have a medical opinion, but I'd hypothesize that you could die from the high fever, you could die from slow respiratory failure, and you could die from whatever other condition you had that was exacerbated by general deterioration (heart attack, stroke, whatever) and that could come at any time.  I guess it can come at you lots of ways.  Maybe Hoodie is right and the data lags behind a little bit.  It makes sense.

What's weird, when looking at the daily graph, there seems to be a little mini-spike about once a week.  I wonder if that's tied to people getting out of weekends or if it's something to do with how things are reported in clusters or what.

This is graph I've been following, by the way.  It updates daily.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?

It is not a set in stone 14 days. But because of the incubation period you didn’t see a drop in cases the day after social distancing began and you didn’t see a spike in communities the day after restrictions ease because of the lag time.  This lag time makes it too easy for people to dismiss the cause and effect of their actions.

[Spider-Dan]

I think 14 days of lag time is probably a good indicator for number of new cases, but deaths should necessarily be further out.  Day 6-8 after symptoms start is normally when symptoms ramp up; 4 weeks seems like a better estimate of lag time for deaths.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I think 14 days of lag time is probably a good indicator for number of new cases, but deaths should necessarily be further out.  Day 6-8 after symptoms start is normally when symptoms ramp up; 4 weeks seems like a better estimate of lag time for deaths.

That has been the general thought for a while: after two consecutive two week Covid-19 free cycles you are potentially not only knocking out people already infected but also future infections, however...

In my City/State (Adelaide/South Australia) we had no infections for nearly two weeks, then one came out of nowhere who had returned from the UK five weeks beforehand. Weird cases like that question the two week guideline for symptoms to occur/testing positive/how contagious you are, but to date no one has come up with anything better to go by. That's the scary thing about this bug, we have thrown so many resources at it over the last six months, and still seem to know so relatively little.

We had another one pop up again from the UK via Melbourne - while they had tested negative three days earlier in Melbourne, they luckily declared they had not served the mandatory 14 day quarantine period there because of compassionate reasons (a terminally ill relative), was tested at the airport and then immediately isolated (as were all fellow passengers and flight crew who were contacted when the result was positive). For a city of 1.5 million we are doing quite well, with the only active case in quarantine (the last one I mentioned, the previous one cured) for over a month.

The Northern Territory, Western Australia are in as good as if not better shape, Tasmania is catching up after one serious outbreak in a hospital to their north. The majority of infections are not surprisingly in the more populated eastern states, New South Wales which was the source of so many seems to be getting theirs under control (at last), but Melbourne/Victoria is still having outbreaks of half a dozen to a dozen infections a day - Queensland has less, but worryingly they have a lot more unaccounted infections (suggested there are a lot more there they have not traced). Touch wood, we never had the volume of infections to threaten let alone overwhelm our hospital systems which is why we have such a (genuine) low death rate.  

Our borders in SA are still effectively shut to the rest of Australia (with exceptions for essential services, etc), but things inside are starting to open up with a little more confidence. In the space of two weeks we have gone from eight weeks of near total shutdown (apart from essential services and medical/food shops) to most shopping being open, to restaurants being open for 20 people inside, and now to most things including personal services being open for up to 80 people indoors (subject to social distancing rules of 4m2 per person space being available inside a venue, and protective measures such as cleaning, face shields, etc). The question for us will be if an outbreak/clusters start appearing, what to we close up again? (if anything). Singapore is an example of somewhere that seemed to be doing so well, and then things got out of hand again...

General air travel in Australia could be a few months off until the eastern states (most specifically Melbourne/Victoria) get their outbreaks under control, but in the global scale of things they are still relatively few and we have been extremely lucky. General international travel I think is way off, although they are already talking about a possible 'bubble' with places like New Zealand if they are also Covid-19 free.

[CF DolFan]

The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so

[Dave Gray]

possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.

Possibly, but I wouldn't make that connection.

Just off the top of my head, I could see how the people who are more interested in putting themselves at risk (going out to bars, beaches, stores, etc) are probably not high-risk people....so those getting sick are less likely to die from it.

This is also good, if true.  It wouldn't mean the virus is getting weaker, but that we're introducing steps towards herd immunity through healthier people first.

[Fau Teixeira]

The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so

srsly ! .. lets hope

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so

Or that we are testing more.  If you test more people you get more cases but a lower % of them die. 

[Spider-Dan]

The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.

I would like to see the stats on the number of people dying from "pneumonia" or "flu-like symptoms" before we declare the death rate to be improving.  Shifting the bodies into different categories doesn't really make a difference, IMO.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I would like to see the stats on the number of people dying from "pneumonia" or "flu-like symptoms" before we declare the death rate to be improving.  Shifting the bodies into different categories doesn't really make a difference, IMO.

There are a hell of a lot of under-quoted figures out there... Great Britain for a long time was only counting Covid-19 positives and deaths tested for in hospitals, when the real figures came through from nursing homes and the like their numbers exploded.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Oh, and for those interested an update on the Australian situation:

The state of Victoria is still the place of major concern with the most new cases (21 today, but most from repatriation overseas) but more importantly also some community transfer. Almost all other states has that aspect under control (three have had no new Covid-19 cases for over three weeks, and two have been completely Covid-19 free for most of that).

Things are gradually opening up here under some confidence, air travel without any quarantine between states is tentatively penciled in to happen from July 20th (some is happening already between some Covid-19 free states) , but overseas travel has basically been ruled out for the rest of the year.

[dolphins4life]

Here's an interesting article

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html#!

The author makes some great points.

If this is fact garbage who is to blame for all this stuff that's been going on for the last two months?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The author does not make good points.  While there are a few instances of deaths being attributed to Covid that arguably should not be considered Covid 19 because of other factors.  There are also many deaths that have occurred in which the deceased was never tested because of a lack of test kits but likely died of covid based on the large number of deaths occurring compared to a “normal” day.  Almost every scientist in the field (not random scientists in other disciplines) believe the number is greatly undercounted.