If available, would you trade for Deshaun Watson?

[CF DolFan]

Picks are all relative. We've done seemingly well with our picks for Laremy Tunsil but the picks we got for Minkah did not come close to equating what we lost.

[EDGECRUSHER]

There's definitely a point to be made that a 1st round pick doesn't mean you just drafted a Pro Bowler. That being said, we have the #3 pick and that is insanely valuable, whether to use on a player or trade down for more picks. People can't just say that our 1st rounder is similar to the Redskins 1st rounder, it's much more valuable.

I'm not keen to give up the #3 pick, Tua and a ton more. If that is the price, walk away. We can definitely part with the #18 pick and future 1st rounders since God willing those will be at the end of the first round, but #3, Tua and #18 is a better package than a middle of the road team offering 6 first rounders since odds are those won't be as high as the ones we are offering right now.

Too bad we will be talking about this for another month before we can even start negotiations.

[CF DolFan]

Oddsmakers have dropped Miami to 4th.

Deshaun Watson Trade Odds
The New York Jets are now considered the favorites to land Watson at +230, per odds from FanDuel Sportsbook Colorado. This represents a significant change, as Houston (+150) was still considered the favorite for Watson as of Jan. 28. The Texans have since fallen to +260, giving them the second-best odds.
Following the top two, the Carolina Panthers have surged up to the third-best odds to land Watson at +300. Carolina wasn't even in the top nine teams in the opening odds to land Watson, so the Panthers are certainly a team to watch now.
As for the rest of the bunch, the Miami Dolphins have fallen to have the fourth-best odds at +700, the San Francisco 49ers are available at +850, the Denver Broncos have +1000 odds and the New England Patriots are available at +1200.
Expect these odds to continue changing as the offseason progresses, but for now, it seems Robert Saleh and the Jets are the favorites to land Deshaun Watson.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I just don't get the Jets being involved, let alone favorites. They are horrible and have no talent on the roster, a Watson trade removes more avenues for acquiring talent, draft wise and his contract. If Watson is fine with going to the 2nd worst team in the league, then fine but he is making that decision based off of hating ownership, not winning football games.

[Fau Teixeira]

odds aren't set based on likelihood of an event .. odds are set so that the gambling halls can sit on a 50/50 split of bets as much as possible and make their money off of the vig without taking a beating either way. So they reflect popular opinion which in this type of case is worthless

[masterfins]

If giving up multiple first rounders plus Tua is what it will cost, I will pass.  If Houston settles for the #18 and the #35 pick, I'll pull the trigger.

I agree.

My problem with this whole discussion is that I think it's crazy to give up on a QB after half a season.  I mean I could understand giving up if the player exhibited that he was terrible, but Tua wasn't.  If not for the injury Tua probably would have went #1 in the draft.  If a team can't give a QB two full seasons to develop then they have absolutely no business drafting a QB EVER.  And for the record I was in favor of drafting Herbert over Tua.

[Spider-Dan]

If a team can't give a QB two full seasons to develop then they have absolutely no business drafting a QB EVER.

I'm not sure the current coaching staff has any business drafting a QB ever, which is exactly why I'm in favor of this deal.

[Phishfan]

Picks are all relative. We've done seemingly well with our picks for Laremy Tunsil but the picks we got for Minkah did not come close to equating what we lost.

You also have to take in context what we gave up isn't what Pittsburgh got either.

[Phishfan]

Too bad we will be talking about this for another month before we can even start negotiations.

Why is this? The Rams and Lions trade is announced?

[EDGECRUSHER]

Why is this? The Rams and Lions trade is announced?

I don't know, but I kept seeing about how Watson can't be traded until March. New league year rule for recently signed extensions?

[CF DolFan]

I don't know, but I kept seeing about how Watson can't be traded until March. New league year rule for recently signed extensions?

It won't be official until then but they can work details until then. Many people don't see Houston dealing until they feel they've exhausted all measures which may include forcing him to hold out. It actually sounds like they may be putting out a starting point for negotiations.


John McClain
@McClain_on_NFL
·
Jan 31
The Rams-Lions trade will have nothing to do with a Watson trade if the Texans do it. They'll want 2 ones, 2 twos and 2 young defensive starters, at the least. Watson, 25, under contract, great QB, team leader, beloved by fans, pillar of the community. Start with the Jets.

I can't remember who said it but I heard a talking head yesterday discussing Watson. He brought up the fact that when Watson had receivers and a menacing defense he still didn't lead them to any where and we don't have the weapons he had. His point was being ... don't mortgage the franchise on someone who hasn't proven anything more than he's good at gaining stats. We are in a pretty good position if we are patient. The new concept of immediate gratification isn't always the best route to go.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I can't remember who said it but I heard a talking head yesterday discussing Watson. He brought up the fact that when Watson had receivers and a menacing defense he still didn't lead them to any where and we don't have the weapons he had. His point was being ... don't mortgage the franchise on someone who hasn't proven anything more than he's good at gaining stats. We are in a pretty good position if we are patient. The new concept of immediate gratification isn't always the best route to go.

I've been leaning towards keeping Tua and the picks the past few days, just not happy with the price and I really don't want someone who doesn't prioritize winning. So, if the Jets are honestly on the table, no thank you. That #3 pick is just so valuable, with it you get an almost guaranteed Pro Bowl player or drop down a few spots and get more picks.

If this were Tua's 2nd year then I would be more in but 10 games after no offseason and coming off of surgery? Nowhere near enough time to evaluate. Plus, Flores chose winning now over development a few times this season because the playoffs were close. Won't be doing that again I would imagine.

[Fau Teixeira]

Agree with CF .. don't trade for watson .. let the texans deal with their drama and keep getting more assets .. even trent dilfer won a superbowl.. Tua's gonna be better than Trent fucking Dilfer

[Spider-Dan]

That #3 pick is just so valuable, with it you get an almost guaranteed Pro Bowl player or drop down a few spots and get more picks.

Just for context, here are the last ten #3 picks, along with their pro awards:

2020- Jeff Okudah, DET (none)
2019- Quinnen Williams, NYJ (none)
2018- Sam Darnold, NYJ (none)
2017- Solomon Thomas, SF (none)
2016- Joey Bosa, SD (DROY, 3x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)
2015- Dante Fowler, JAX (none)
2014- Blake Bortles, JAX (none)
2013- no comment necessary
2012- Trent Richardson, CLE (none)
2011- Marcell Dareus, BUF (2x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)

Suffice it to say that even the #3 pick is very far from a sure thing.  Watson has already accomplished more than most of this list combined.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Just for context, here are the last ten #3 picks, along with their pro awards:

2020- Jeff Okudah, DET (none)
2019- Quinnen Williams, NYJ (none)
2018- Sam Darnold, NYJ (none)
2017- Solomon Thomas, SF (none)
2016- Joey Bosa, SD (DROY, 3x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)
2015- Dante Fowler, JAX (none)
2014- Blake Bortles, JAX (none)
2013- no comment necessary
2012- Trent Richardson, CLE (none)
2011- Marcell Dareus, BUF (2x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro)

Suffice it to say that even the #3 pick is very far from a sure thing.  Watson has already accomplished more than most of this list combined.

2013? What happened in 201.....*has seizure from relapsed trauma*

The #3 pick this year is insanely valuable because of 3 outcomes. 1) Draft Sewell who is a once a decade O-Line prospect 2) Draft Chase or Smith and elevate the passing game 3) Drop down a few spots and accumulate more picks so some QB needy team can draft the next Sam Darnold at 3. Not as glamorous but could be better for the team overall to fill out some depth

There are obviously years where the draft talent sucks or the 84th best prospect in the draft goes 3rd just because he is a QB, but this is a very good draft and our pick is worth a lot.