Going for it vs punting

[dolphins4life]

This happened in three critical situations yesterday.

Here is the first https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeIPRF1Kj5M 

I agree with this decision.  You are down three scores and it is fourth and one.  Even if you don't make it, you can still hold them to a field goal and it will remain a three score game.

Here is the second https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2RSjr-0lTE   

I agree with this decision as well.  The Jaguars have all three timeouts left.  If you punt, it's still a tall order for your defense to make a stop.  I did not like the play call.  They should have put it in Tua's hands. 


The third one was an overtime punt.  It was in the Dallas/NE game.  The Patriots faced fourth and three near midfield on the first possession.  They chose to punt.  The Cowboys scored.   

I did not agree with this decision.  It was a situation where the Cowboys only needed a field goal.  In that situation, I think you HAVE to go for it.  Your team is 2-3 and you desperately need a victory.  You need to show your young quarterback that you believe in him.

[Dave Gray]

In general, on 4th and short, go for it.

If you don't get it most of the time, you're not the better team anyway.  There are specific score/time situations where you'd punt, but the numbers say to go for it.

Unfortunately, we often attribute going for it as desperation, because the mindset of the NFL is old people who have been brought up with an old brand of football.  There needs to be a team that's good that goes for it regularly and plays those odds....they won't get it 30% of the time, but the rest they will and it will result in more wins.

Then the league will change.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Go for it almost every time if you are at least mid field. Certain situations where it is 4th and 1 at your own 25 with a minute left and you're up by 6 where you better punt but the majority of the time you should go for it.

[ArtieChokePhin]

4th and short when you're between mid-field and the opponents 35 yard line is when you should go for it.   That area is too close for a punt and too far for a field goal.   If you're on your side of the field, you punt it, unless you're in a critical time situation and need to score quickly.

[dolphins4life]

In general, on 4th and short, go for it.

If you don't get it most of the time, you're not the better team anyway.  There are specific score/time situations where you'd punt, but the numbers say to go for it.

Unfortunately, we often attribute going for it as desperation, because the mindset of the NFL is old people who have been brought up with an old brand of football.  There needs to be a team that's good that goes for it regularly and plays those odds....they won't get it 30% of the time, but the rest they will and it will result in more wins.

Then the league will change.

Against certain teams, you should go for it.  That's the problem I had with Flores against Tampa Bay.  Miami twice punted on fourth and short in the first half. 

The Ravens went for it on fourth and one against KC earlier this year in their own territory

[stinkfish]

Never punt. Never surrender.

[Dave Gray]

Against certain teams, you should go for it.

It's not against certain teams, though.  If you can't go for it and get it, you can't win the game anyway.  The team is better than you and you're going to lose because you're the worse team.

Going for it makes sense because of math.  It's like hitting on 16 in blackjack.  You're probably going to bust, but it's better than staying and losing the hand in the long run anyway.

[pondwater]

It's not against certain teams, though.  If you can't go for it and get it, you can't win the game anyway.  The team is better than you and you're going to lose because you're the worse team.

Going for it makes sense because of math.  It's like hitting on 16 in blackjack.  You're probably going to bust, but it's better than staying and losing the hand in the long run anyway.

I remember back in the 80s some of the QBs would line up and punt on 4th down and I've always been intrigued by the idea. I think you could line up every 4th down to go for it 100% of the time and depending on the defense and field position you could always audible into a QB punt. On 4th and one, everyone is going to be up close to the line and they won't have a returner or blocking set up for a return so you should in theory be able to pin them back. Then if they put a returner in the game and set up regular punt blocking just in case, you should have a good chance to get the first down. All you need is a to teach the QB to punt. Or teach the punter to be a QB. I think the former would be easier than the latter, haha.

[masterfins]

Never punt. Never surrender.

You said it Corey Hart!

[CF DolFan]

I remember back in the 80s some of the QBs would line up and punt on 4th down and I've always been intrigued by the idea. I think you could line up every 4th down to go for it 100% of the time and depending on the defense and field position you could always audible into a QB punt. On 4th and one, everyone is going to be up close to the line and they won't have a returner or blocking set up for a return so you should in theory be able to pin them back. Then if they put a returner in the game and set up regular punt blocking just in case, you should have a good chance to get the first down. All you need is a to teach the QB to punt. Or teach the punter to be a QB. I think the former would be easier than the latter, haha.

Didn't Doug Flutie do that against us or maybe it was a drop kick for a field goal? It was something strange.

Edited to add I found it. He drop kicked an extra point when it looked like he was lining up to go for 2.

[Dave Gray]

^ Yeah, that was just an oddity.  ...not a trick play.  I just think they let him do something weird so that he could be the first to do in like 50 years or something.  This was a game already out of hand, if I remember.

I do remember Randall Cunningham punting from the QB position on 3rd down from the 1 yard line.  I think it went like 99 yards or something.

[pondwater]

^ Yeah, that was just an oddity.  ...not a trick play.  I just think they let him do something weird so that he could be the first to do in like 50 years or something.  This was a game already out of hand, if I remember.

I do remember Randall Cunningham punting from the QB position on 3rd down from the 1 yard line.  I think it went like 99 yards or something.

Elway did it a few times in also. I think that would be a good strategy.

Hey Dave, wouldn't it be better than the hard count fakeout play that no one ever falls for? On every single 4th down, line up see what the defense gives you and audible accordingly. I'm not sure if there is some kind of hybrid defense that could cover a run, pass, and punt. However, it would make the game more interesting to say the least.

[Spider-Dan]

Unfortunately, we often attribute going for it as desperation, because the mindset of the NFL is old people who have been brought up with an old brand of football.  There needs to be a team that's good that goes for it regularly and plays those odds....they won't get it 30% of the time, but the rest they will and it will result in more wins.

Then the league will change.

Nope.  It's the media.

Coaches who don't go for it receive rare and fleeting criticism after a loss, but going for it and failing puts you in the spotlight.  As long as a failed 4th down attempt has a bigger impact on job security than punting and not getting the ball back, coaches will decide in favor of their own professional interests.

[Dave Gray]

Hey Dave, wouldn't it be better than the hard count fakeout play that no one ever falls for?

Yes, but the hard count fake is a low bar.

The only thing about the hard count that's somewhat salvagable is that it doesn't really cost you anything.  Those are yards you're expecting to get back in the punt anyway.

[Spider-Dan]

I think the one underutilized part of the hard count is that there aren't enough teams who fake the hard count nonsense and then actually snap the ball with ~5 seconds left on the play clock.  At the very least, you can make sure the defense isn't getting a jump on the play.

It seems like when teams go for it on 4th down, they either hard count without ever snapping, or snap immediately.  Maybe they're more frightened of a false start than anything else?