Notable Stat of the Day

[fyo]

It's well known that the Dolphins are the worst 2nd quarter team in the league this year, but perhaps not as widely recognized is that we're actually one of the best 1st quarter teams.

This is, of course, completely meaningless in that winners are not determined after the first quarter. You need to play all four (*ahem* plus overtime *ahem*), but I found it interesting nonetheless.

Scoring by Quarter:
1st: 3rd (6.9)
2nd: 32nd (1.3)
3rd:  27th (3.0)
4th: 20th (6.6)

(Better in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th last year - especially 2nd)

Opponent Scoring by Quarter:
1st: 12th (3.7)
2nd: 25th (9.1)
3rd: 22nd (5.9)
4th: 29th (10.0) (8th last year)

Expected (pythagorean) wins based on 1st Q performance: 13.839912634 (13.0 if this were a 16 game season).

Why do we suck so much after the first quarter?

[EDGECRUSHER]

Because we prepare all week for the team and then when they make their 2nd quarter adjustments, we fail miserably because we are bad at adjusting during the game. Takes a high football IQ to outmaneuver your opponent during the game and we don't have coaches who have them.

[CF DolFan]

Eli Manning and Peyton Manning debunked the concept of halftime adjustments so I don't know how many are made during games. I wonder if it has more to do with reading what's happening and reacting to play calling. 

[Dolfanalyst]

Unfortunately first quarter scoring margin isn't significantly predictive of winning in the NFL over the past five full regular seasons (2016-2020).  Scoring margins in quarters 2, 3, and 4 are significantly predictive of win percentage team-by-team during that period, whereas first quarter scoring margin is not.  The expected number of wins based on the Dolphins' 2021 first quarter scoring margin may need to be adjusted in light of that.  I doubt they're doing anything special here in terms of winning.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Eli Manning and Peyton Manning debunked the concept of halftime adjustments so I don't know how many are made during games. I wonder if it has more to do with reading what's happening and reacting to play calling. 

Might be a misinterpretation of things because if you have a game plan going into the game and if it isn't working at halftime, you need to adjust. If you don't, you should be fired. That's just common sense so there might be something lost in translation with this.