How Flores stacks up against Gase, Philbin, and Sparano

[EDGECRUSHER]

Given the complete ineptitude in this organization that is rampant from ownership, to GM, to coaches, why would ANYONE want to stay in Miami?  From Day One, not only has this team not done anything to help Tua succeed, they have seemingly sabotaged him and shown zero confidence in him (and thereby preventing him from gaining any confidence in himself) and done everything possible to prevent him from succeeding. 

Tua has not even played 16 games yet and as he is getting better, they want to replace him. If we wanted to purposely destroy his development, what would we have done differently?

[Spider-Dan]

It sounds like you have an interest in doing that regarding Tannehill, so go ahead and start the thread.

I'm willing to let the record stand for itself.
You're the one still trying to advance the contrarian viewpoint that actually, Tannehill was The Problem in Miami, not his supporting cast.

And it looks quite a bit like you're headed down the same path with Tua, what with the effusive praise of how well career journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing last year.

[Dolfanalyst]

I'm willing to let the record stand for itself.
You're the one still trying to advance the contrarian viewpoint that actually, Tannehill was The Problem in Miami, not his supporting cast.

Both were the problem. Both were average.

[Dolfanalyst]

Only thing is you are talking about a truly elite QB that is a once in a generation thing (or maybe three in this generation).

Brady, Manning and Rodgers all have/had the knack of consistently making receivers that look pretty ordinary elsewhere look like stars for way over a decade. The rest aren't remotely in that same league. 

The expected level of performance for arguably the greatest head coach of all time is not average.

[pondwater]

I would caution people from believing the Dolphins failed Tannehill.  Tannehill's performance in Tennessee has been a product of a number of difficult-to-replicate factors, and we're seeing him revert back to the average level as a player because the Titans cannot replicate those factors from year to year.  If your quarterback's individual success depends on a perfect alignment of the stars, and those stars are unlikely to align for long, you don't have a very good quarterback.  You'd much rather have one who can win with surroundings that more closely approximate the average level, as those are the surroundings any team is most likely to have.

You're seeing the same regression thing from Mahomes this year also.The point that I'm making is that Tannehill is an adequate QB to compete in this league. The difference between the two is that Tennessee gave him a supporting cast and the tools needed to be competitive. Miami only gave him trash, blame, and excuses.

They are doing exactly the same with thing Tua but worse. A trash OL and OL coach. Bozo and Cookie for Offensive coordinators calling cartoonish plays out of their coloring book. Speed demon WRs running 4 yard slants & bubble routes. Hell, the leading receiver is Gesicki. What does it say about your team when the leading receiver is your TE and every time he gets a first down for 12 yards he looks like an excited 6 year kid on Christmas day with his stupid ball spin? And the only reason he got 12 yards for the 1st down is because we lost 2 yards on 1st and 2nd down.

So while Tua may not be performing and have stats like other starting QBs in the league. He's clearly one of the best and most consistent players we have. It's a team sport and if we plugged him into another system that knows what the fuck they're doing he would be on par with those other starting QBs. We don't need him to be elite, we just need him to be competitive. Tua is doing his job as well as one would expect.

[Dolfanalyst]

You're seeing the same regression thing from Mahomes this year also.The point that I'm making is that Tannehill is an adequate QB to compete in this league. The difference between the two is that Tennessee gave him a supporting cast and the tools needed to be competitive. Miami only gave him trash, blame, and excuses.

They are doing exactly the same with thing Tua but worse. A trash OL and OL coach. Bozo and Cookie for Offensive coordinators calling cartoonish plays out of their coloring book. Speed demon WRs running 4 yard slants & bubble routes. Hell, the leading receiver is Gesicki. What does it say about your team when the leading receiver is your TE and every time he gets a first down for 12 yards he looks like an excited 6 year kid on Christmas day with his stupid ball spin? And the only reason he got 12 yards for the 1st down is because we lost 2 yards on 1st and 2nd down.

So while Tua may not be performing and have stats like other starting QBs in the league. He's clearly one of the best and most consistent players we have. It's a team sport and if we plugged him into another system that knows what the fuck they're doing he would be on par with those other starting QBs. We don't need him to be elite, we just need him to be competitive. Tua is doing his job as well as one would expect.

I don't have any judgment of Tua on the basis of what he's doing right now.  Too many great (and poor) QBs have played like he is early in their careers to form a judgment at this point.  His ceiling in the league is unknown at present.

My point is that you have to be careful about how much you're asking from the organization to surround a player with whatever he needs to be successful.  The worst QB of all time could perhaps be successful if you surround him with the 10 best other offensive players in the history of the game and a defense that can limit other teams' scoring so that he's rarely if ever in a must-pass situation and susceptible to opposing pass rushers' teeing off on him.  The problem there of course is that that can't happen -- no team can possibly assemble that kind of surrounding talent.  On the other hand the best QB of all time would naturally need far less around him to succeed at the necessary level.

The point is that when you start talking about what a QB "needs," you're perhaps getting onto a slippery slope where you start to fantasize about what a QB could be "only if" he had X, Y, and Z around him, despite that he's possibly never performed at that level and perhaps never could, regardless of his surroundings.  The other important input into that equation is the organization's likelihood of obtaining and maintaining those surroundings.  If it's highly unlikely for any organization to obtain and maintain the needed surroundings, you have an inadequate QB by definition.

The most likely level of quality of surrounding support for any QB is average.  That's what any organization is most likely to obtain and maintain.  You'd like your QB to perform at the necessary level with those surroundings, not some surroundings that are unlikely to be obtained and maintained.

[pondwater]

The most likely level of quality of surrounding support for any QB is average.  That's what any organization is most likely to obtain and maintain.  You'd like your QB to perform at the necessary level with those surroundings, not some surroundings that are unlikely to be obtained and maintained.

You just made my point. Would you consider ANYTHING about the 2021 Dolphins average? There may be something, but off the top of my head I can't come up with anything. So unless I'm missing something, everything is below average by a good margin. The two main things that a QB needs is a half way competent OL and decent OC. How do you think Josh Allen would do if he took Tua's place in the Dolphins freak show this week? He may do better than Tua, but I wouldn't bet my hooker and cocaine money that they would win the game.

Tannehill ranks #10 on ESPN QB rankings and Tua ranks #24. However, in Tannehill's last year with the dolphins(2018) ESPN had Tannehill ranked #32 and Josh Allen ranked #24. The main differences between them now is that Tannehill and Allen have more experience and the tools necessary to compete on a weekly basis. If you put Tua on the Titans or Bills he would probably rank in the top 12. If Tannehill can succeed somewhere else, that tells me that Tannehill wasn't the problem here. Miami has an organizational problem that's gone on for 20+ years.

[Dolfanalyst]

You just made my point. Would you consider ANYTHING about the 2021 Dolphins average? There may be something, but off the top of my head I can't come up with anything. So unless I'm missing something, everything is below average by a good margin. The two main things that a QB needs is a half way competent OL and decent OC. How do you think Josh Allen would do if he took Tua's place in the Dolphins freak show this week? He may do better than Tua, but I wouldn't bet my hooker and cocaine money that they would win the game.

Tannehill ranks #10 on ESPN QB rankings and Tua ranks #24. However, in Tannehill's last year with the dolphins(2018) ESPN had Tannehill ranked #32 and Josh Allen ranked #24. The main differences between them now is that Tannehill and Allen have more experience and the tools necessary to compete on a weekly basis. If you put Tua on the Titans or Bills he would probably rank in the top 12. If Tannehill can succeed somewhere else, that tells me that Tannehill wasn't the problem here. Miami has an organizational problem that's gone on for 20+ years.

A QB doesn't need a good offensive line to succeed over larger samples of play, such as full seasons.  Pro Football Focus (PFF) rates QBs and offensive lines every year on the basis of their isolated performance (i.e., separate from other parts of teams).  PFF's QB ratings are strongly related to offensive passing efficiency across the league, and that does not depend on PFF's offensive line pass blocking ratings (as determined by multiple regression using the 2018 and 2019 seasons).

In other words, QBs can pass the ball well in terms of efficiency even in the presence of a poor pass blocking offensive line.  For example, Justin Herbert last year had the poorest pass blocking offensive line in the league as rated by PFF, yet he played very well for a rookie QB in terms of pass efficiency.  Russell Wilson has played at a Hall of Fame level during his career, alongside some of the worst-rated pass blocking offensive lines in the league.  By the same token, other QBs have played behind stellar pass blocking offensive lines as rated by PFF and nonetheless played relatively poorly individually.

Additionally, the New England Patriots lost Tom Brady a year and a half ago and have played at the average level since then, while Brady took a previously 7-9 team to an immediate Super Bowl win.  Did New England's coaching staff suddenly plummet from "20-year dynasty" caliber to merely average in terms of skill?  Did Tampa Bay's coaching staff suddenly become stellar?

These are all things that need to be considered when appraising the individual ability of QBs.  They are a lot more responsible for their own individual performance than many people appear to believe.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Omar Kelly pointed out that Flores is way behind his "failed" predecessors. Flores has also had many more resources to deal with so that kind of makes it worse. My question is why isn't there a larger contingency calling for his head? It has to be the first two seasons that is kind of skewing the perception of him.

Adam Gase was 20-20 (.500)
Joe Philbin was 20-20 (.500)
Tony Sparano was 22-18 (.550)
Brian Flores is 16-24 (.400)

Getting back to the original question...

Sparano had a team of very limited talent that believed in his passion... right up until Ross chased Harbaugh when he was still under contract and basically announcing he was a dead man walking. Even then he fought for his job - I remember him pleading a bad decision by a ref saying "you just got me fired!" For all his limitations the team only gave up on him after the owner did, and I put him at the best of this list because of it.

Philbin to date is the worst by a mile. From day one everyone knew he was way out of his depth, and I don't think the playing group ever respected or believed in him.

Gase was another out of his depth, and like Sparano benefited from an easy schedule to make the playoffs. That said, one thing I will give him is that he cleaned out some of the trash accumulated by Ireland's drafting/trading, and in doing so did us a huge favor moving forward.

The first two seasons under Flores were acceptable, but this season is a train wreck of monumental proportions - worst of all there are major rumblings he has lost the team, and if that doesn't turn around in a hurry he's finished. Refusal to recognize major problems with their coaching methods, half assed efforts on the field, poor communication with players, and now disciplinary issues with guys like Williams and Redwine who should be busting their butts to stay on the team. Not good.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Getting back to the original question...

The first two seasons under Flores were acceptable, but this season is a train wreck of monumental proportions - worst of all there are major rumblings he has lost the team, and if that doesn't turn around in a hurry he's finished. Refusal to recognize major problems with their coaching methods, half assed efforts on the field, poor communication with players, and now disciplinary issues with guys like Williams and Redwine who should be busting their butts to stay on the team. Not good.

I just read about Preston. What the hell happened?

[ArtieChokePhin]

I just read about Preston. What the hell happened?

Him and Redwine didn't make the trip to Buffalo for "disciplinary reasons".   Not sure how this is going to play out but if this coaching staff stays, I don't see them on the Dolphins next year.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Him and Redwine didn't make the trip to Buffalo for "disciplinary reasons".   Not sure how this is going to play out but if this coaching staff stays, I don't see them on the Dolphins next year.

I heard that but no details were given. Disciplinary could mean going to the Pepsi machine and accidentally violating Covid rules or doing cocaine off of a stripper while missing practice.

[Dolfanalyst]

During the Flores, Gase, Philbin, and Sparano eras (2008-2021), the correlation between the team's season win percentage and the degree to which its passer rating deviated from league average is a whopping 0.88.  That means 77% of the variance in the team's season win percentage during that period is explained by the degree to which its passer rating was above or below league average.

The more the team's passer rating was above league average, the more it won, regardless of its head coach.  The more the team's passer rating was below league average, the more it lost, regardless of its head coach.

The season-by-season correlations for each individual coach during that period are as follows:

Sparano:  0.80
Philbin:  0.01
Gase:  0.93
Flores:  0.91

So not only has the Dolphins' season-by-season record since 2008 been far more strongly a function of variation in quarterback/passing game play than of variation in head coaches, but even within the individual tenures of these head coaches, their performance has varied very strongly as a function of quarterback/passing game play.  When each coach got better QB/passing game play, he did better.

[Philbin is the lone exception in that regard because he had almost entirely average QB/passing game play as well as an almost entirely average record throughout his tenure -- hence there was little variation in either and therefore little or no correlation to be found.  His performance fits with the overall correlation during the time period (2008-2021), however.]

Moreover, once again we just had arguably the greatest head coach in history plummet from "20-year dynasty" caliber to merely average for a season and a half, following the departure of his HoF QB, while that QB immediately took a previously 7-9 team to a Super Bowl win.

Certainly it's difficult to judge the quality of coaches like Sparano, Philbin, Gase, and Flores -- who never had high-quality QBs/passing games (other than perhaps Chad Pennington's MVP runner-up year in 2008) -- when even arguably the greatest head coach in history is prone to coaching at their level when neither he has a high-quality QB/passing game.

[Tenshot13]

During the Flores, Gase, Philbin, and Sparano eras (2008-2021), the correlation between the team's season win percentage and the degree to which its passer rating deviated from league average is a whopping 0.88.  That means 77% of the variance in the team's season win percentage during that period is explained by the degree to which its passer rating was above or below league average.

The more the team's passer rating was above league average, the more it won, regardless of its head coach.  The more the team's passer rating was below league average, the more it lost, regardless of its head coach.

The season-by-season correlations for each individual coach during that period are as follows:

Sparano:  0.80
Philbin:  0.01
Gase:  0.93
Flores:  0.91

So not only has the Dolphins' season-by-season record since 2008 been far more strongly a function of variation in quarterback/passing game play than of variation in head coaches, but even within the individual tenures of these head coaches, their performance has varied very strongly as a function of quarterback/passing game play.  When each coach got better QB/passing game play, he did better.

[Philbin is the lone exception in that regard because he had almost entirely average QB/passing game play as well as an almost entirely average record throughout his tenure -- hence there was little variation in either and therefore little or no correlation to be found.  His performance fits with the overall correlation during the time period (2008-2021), however.]

Moreover, once again we just had arguably the greatest head coach in history plummet from "20-year dynasty" caliber to merely average for a season and a half, following the departure of his HoF QB, while that QB immediately took a previously 7-9 team to a Super Bowl win.

Certainly it's difficult to judge the quality of coaches like Sparano, Philbin, Gase, and Flores -- who never had high-quality QBs/passing games (other than perhaps Chad Pennington's MVP runner-up year in 2008) -- when even arguably the greatest head coach in history is prone to coaching at their level when neither he has a high-quality QB/passing game.

Is this a fancy way of saying when a QB plays well teams do better?

[Dolfanalyst]

Is this a fancy way of saying when a QB plays well teams do better?

It's a fancy way of saying it's difficult to judge the ability of head coaches in the absence of quality QB/passing game play.  If Tom Brady came to the Dolphins right now I'm sure Brian Flores would suddenly seem like a far better coach.  Certainly Bruce Arians did in 2020 (and now also in 2021), while Bill Belichick on the other hand suddenly looked merely average after coaching the longest dynasty in the history of the game and becoming a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer.