Challenges

[dolphins4life]

So people said Brian Flores should have challenged a Ravens play in the first quarter:

Fourth play of the game. 2nd and 3. Handoff to Devonta Freeman who is tripped by the turf monster half a yard shy of the line of scrimmage, behind the offensive line who have pushed the Dolphins back. Raekwon Davis reaches past his opponent and touches Freeman while he's getting up. No one appears to notice and Freeman gets up and barrels his way for 4 yards and the first down on the play.

From the live action and slow-mo I was 100% sure he was down by contact. After stepping through it frame-by-frame just now, I'm going to say he almost certainly managed to get his knee (and forearm) off the turf maybe 3 frames (5 hundredths of a second) before being touched. It's a bit hard to tell because the part of the knee touching the turf isn't in the frame anymore and so it becomes a bit of a judgement based on the movement of the runner's legs (everything but the part touching the turf is visible). Certainly, a frame or two after the touch, the knee is off the ground, so it's a very, very close call regardless. I think the refs got it right and, even if they didn't, I don't think it would have been overturned. Which is most definitely NOT how I felt watching the game and replay originally.

I got a few problems with this.

1) It's interesting how everybody on this board assumed the call was incorrect, yet once they analyzed it on replay, they see that it was correct.

2) Even if it was incorrect, I can totally see why you wouldn't waste a challenge on a play that would have set up third down and one, especially this early in the game.

3) How come nobody is saying that fyo is secretly a Ravens fan?  I analyze calls the exact same way and I get called a Brady or Patriots fan.

Next we have the catch that was overturned.  I did not see a replay where the ball touched the ground.  Did the ball indeed touch the ground?

If it did, that means Flores correctly did not challenge a play, and correctly did challenge one.

I honestly don't have a problem with Flores.  Success in the NFL is far more dependent on your opponents than you.  Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

[pondwater]

So people said Brian Flores should have challenged a Ravens play in the first quarter:



I got a few problems with this.

1) It's interesting how everybody on this board assumed the call was incorrect, yet once they analyzed it on replay, they see that it was correct.

2) Even if it was incorrect, I can totally see why you wouldn't waste a challenge on a play that would have set up third down and one, especially this early in the game.

3) How come nobody is saying that fyo is secretly a Ravens fan?  I analyze calls the exact same way and I get called a Brady or Patriots fan.

Next we have the catch that was overturned.  I did not see a replay where the ball touched the ground.  Did the ball indeed touch the ground?

If it did, that means Flores correctly did not challenge a play, and correctly did challenge one.

I honestly don't have a problem with Flores.  Success in the NFL is far more dependent on your opponents than you.  Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

I vote to banish you to the Off Topic forum to argue politics and religions for the next 7 days.

[Dolfanalyst]

Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

And had those plays gone in such a way to make this team 6-4, they'd be no better than they are at present, which is poor.

The Dolphins are 26th in the league in scoring margin, 28th in the league in team DVOA, and poor in passer rating differential.  If they were 6-4 they'd be very much a paper tiger 6-4 that would be expected to lose regularly from there on.  Vegas certainly wouldn't be determining their point spreads primarily on the basis of that 6-4 record, I can guarantee you that.

[dolphins4life]

And had those plays gone in such a way to make this team 6-4, they'd be no better than they are at present, which is poor.

The Dolphins are 26th in the league in scoring margin, 28th in the league in team DVOA, and poor in passer rating differential.  If they were 6-4 they'd be very much a paper tiger 6-4 that would be expected to lose regularly from there on.  Vegas certainly wouldn't be determining their point spreads primarily on the basis of that 6-4 record, I can guarantee you that.

That does not mean jack.  All that matters is winning in the NFL 

Also, could somebody explain that double standard I pointed out? 

Oh wait, you won't because YOU HAVE NO EXPLANATION

[Dolfanalyst]

That does not mean jack.  All that matters is winning in the NFL

In the post you quoted I noted that the scenario you had set up was one in which the Dolphins would be 6-4 but nonetheless be expected to lose regularly from there on.  So yes, I'm aware of the importance of winning.  The point is that the 60% win percentage wouldn't be sustainable because it wouldn't be associated with the strongest predictors of winning.

In other words, this isn't a team that's playing at a 60% win percentage level and "fluking" its way to losses.  This is a team that -- if it were winning at a 60% clip -- would be "fluking" its way to wins.

[dolphins4life]

In the post you quoted I noted that the scenario you had set up was one in which the Dolphins would be 6-4 but nonetheless be expected to lose regularly from there on.  So yes, I'm aware of the importance of winning.  The point is that the 60% win percentage wouldn't be sustainable because it wouldn't be associated with the strongest predictors of winning.

In other words, this isn't a team that's playing at a 60% win percentage level and "fluking" its way to losses.  This is a team that -- if it were winning at a 60% clip -- would be "fluking" its way to wins.

We're getting sidetracked anyway.  What about the challenges?

And why isn't fyo now considered a Ravens fan?

[fyo]

So people said Brian Flores should have challenged a Ravens play in the first quarter:



I got a few problems with this.

1) It's interesting how everybody on this board assumed the call was incorrect, yet once they analyzed it on replay, they see that it was correct.

2) Even if it was incorrect, I can totally see why you wouldn't waste a challenge on a play that would have set up third down and one, especially this early in the game.

3) How come nobody is saying that fyo is secretly a Ravens fan?  I analyze calls the exact same way and I get called a Brady or Patriots fan.

Next we have the catch that was overturned.  I did not see a replay where the ball touched the ground.  Did the ball indeed touch the ground?

If it did, that means Flores correctly did not challenge a play, and correctly did challenge one.

I honestly don't have a problem with Flores.  Success in the NFL is far more dependent on your opponents than you.  Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

Just to clarify, a successful challenge would have set up 3rd and 3 or 4. The runner would have lost maybe half a yard, as indicated in my original post.

The NFL actually gave the replay official the power to correct objective mistakes this year. Not quite the full "sky judge", but we did see it save the Dolphins from having to use a challenge later in the game against the Ravens. The officials had spotted the ball half a yard short of a first down on a play where the Dolphins CLEARLY got enough for a first. After the ball was spotted, the on-field officials were told of their mistake by the replay official and the mistake was fixed, first down Dolphins.

[bsmooth]

We're getting sidetracked anyway.  What about the challenges?

And why isn't fyo now considered a Ravens fan?

Because of two reasons.

1. fyo has not filled this board with a litany of comments and complaining over the years, like you have, which has made people question how much of football you actually understand.

2. You have been ranting and raving about Brady and the Patriots for years which has led people to say you are a Pats fan in Dolphins clothing.

So to be clear, there is no hypocrisy or double standard with regards to fyo's posting vs you posting. You made this bed, now you get to lie in it.