Miami Dolphins Cap Space and Moves

[Sunstroke]

This is a great season to grab a TE in the draft. It is flat-out loaded with talent, and would allow Miami to add a much-needed position on a rookie scale contract and use those FA dollars on the line or other positions.

[Dolfanalyst]

This is a great season to grab a TE in the draft. It is flat-out loaded with talent, and would allow Miami to add a much-needed position on a rookie scale contract and use those FA dollars on the line or other positions.

This is someone to consider:

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2022/trey-mcbride

The offensive line will certainly be targeted for improvement, but at #29 overall what's most likely to be obtained is an average-level player.  A tight end at #29 is most likely to be about 70th percentile in the league.

Lots of people thought Austin Jackson would be great simply because he was a first-round pick OL.  But at 18th overall you're looking at about a 60th percentile player most likely, with plenty of busts historically at that draft range.  Like QBs, the top tackles are taken off the board very early (e.g., Penei Sewell).  It's too important a position for the top talents to last long in the draft.  The Dolphins aren't likely getting anybody of quality there at #29 overall this year.

[EDGECRUSHER]

This is someone to consider:

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2022/trey-mcbride

The offensive line will certainly be targeted for improvement, but at #29 overall what's most likely to be obtained is an average-level player.  A tight end at #29 is most likely to be about 70th percentile in the league.

Lots of people thought Austin Jackson would be great simply because he was a first-round pick OL.  But at 18th overall you're looking at about a 60th percentile player most likely, with plenty of busts historically at that draft range.  Like QBs, the top tackles are taken off the board very early (e.g., Penei Sewell).  It's too important a position for the top talents to last long in the draft.  The Dolphins aren't likely getting anybody of quality there at #29 overall this year.

Free agency is the way to go in regards to fixing the line, better coaching is the other. Not going to sign 5 new Linemen and probably not going to draft Day 1 starters with our current draft position either so it will have to be a combo. McBride at 29 makes as much sense as anything else.

[fyo]

Why is Gesicki being evaluated as a Tight End just because it says TE next to his name?

The guy lines up at receiver (wideout or slot) on 85% of his plays. The remaining includes various motions into the backfield as well as actual blocking TE (~10%). He's a receiver and if McDaniel evaluates him as a TE, he's an idiot. The team might prefer to have Gesicki listed as a tight end for whatever reasons, but that doesn't change what he brings to the table.

So, how does Gesicki compare if we look at what he actually is, a receiver that's actually decent (for a receiver) at blocking?

Looking at overall efficieny, as I know Dolfanalyst likes, gets very team-specific. Unless the receiver is consistently running the wrong routes or not "on the same page" as the quarterback, I prefer other metrics when trying to single out the receiver's contribution,

In 2021, Gesicki had 73 receptions on 79 "catchable" passes with 3 drops and 3 (lost) contested. His average distance down-field was 7.7 yards per catch, after which he gained an extra 3 yards after reception - of which 0.9 yards was after contact. His average target depth was 8.7 yards on 112 throws, yielding a catch rate of 65%. His defenders gave him a cushion of 6.5 yards on average and he managed a final separation of 2.8 yards. Finally, he had 1 broken tackle, 9 red zone targets, 2 touchdowns, and drew 1 DPI.

Let's quickly get comparisons with the other Dolphins receivers out of the way.

Parker: Much higher drop rate, more losses to defender, fewer YAC (-0.4y), +3y depth of target, league lowest separation, much lower catch rate (55%).

Waddle: Much higher drop rate, fewer losses to defender, more YAC (+1.2y), -2.2y depth of target, +0.5y separation, much higher catch rate (74%).

No other Dolphins receiver had more than 25 receptions making comparisons statistically suspect.

Albert Wilson was the highest (25) with nearly twice that of the next guy (Hollins at 14), so I'll include Wilson with the caveat that the sample size is low and some metrics were not available. Overall, Wilson had a much higher drop rate, higher loss rate to defender, ridiculously short target depth, but Cooper Kupp level of YAC.

Comparing Gesicki to other receivers around the league, there are some statistically very similar players if we restrict ourselves to 2021. Gesicki managed similar performance last year, which would "thin out" some of the rookies that pop op in the list, but Jacobi Meyers (UDFA, WR, NE) really does stand out with eerily similar stats.

If we just stick to NFL NextGen stats for receivers and use them all, without discriminating, the most similar receivers (least squares from normalized values) are:

Jakobi Meyers   NE   WR   0.24
Cole Beasley   BUF   WR   0.75
T.J. Hockenson   DET   TE   0.97
Robby Anderson   CAR   WR   0.99
Courtland Sutton   DEN   WR   1.11
Christian Kirk   ARI   WR   1.19
Zach Ertz   ARI   TE   1.28
Marvin Jones   JAX   WR   1.33
Allen Robinson   CHI   WR   1.36
Zach Pascal   IND   WR   1.40
Tyler Conklin   MIN   TE   1.45
Nelson Agholor   NE   WR   1.47

There are some stats missing that we'd really want to include, so if we include a dump of all the advanced stats from fantasypros.com, we can do the same thing (still naively including all metrics, regardless):

Jakobi Meyers   1.13
Marvin Jones   3.44
Cole Beasley   3.63
T.J. Hockenson   3.72
Zach Ertz   4.08
Noah Fant   4.27
Tyler Conklin   4.30
Nelson Agholor   4.34
Darren Waller   4.60
Emmanuel Sanders   4.75
Russell Gage   4.79
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine   4.80
Zach Pascal   4.84
DeVonta Smith   4.90

(The distance isn't divided by the number of metrics included, so it will naturally increase the more metrics we include)

If we try to trim the metrics down to the most receiver-specific instead of including everything but the kitchen sink, well, there are a million ways to slice it, but I would go with something like separation, yac/reception, airyards/reception, %caught-of-catchable... and then maybe include overall catch-percentage (not as much of an overlap with %caught-of-catchable as you'd think - and this stat hopefully catches something of how the receiver is at running the *right* routes). Then we get the following:

Jakobi Meyers   0.0116
Keenan Allen   0.0118
Rashod Bateman   0.0119
Sterling Shepard   0.0145
Stefon Diggs   0.0205
Joshua Palmer   0.0229
Michael Pittman   0.0245
Adam Thielen   0.0260
Russell Gage   0.0330
Tre'Quan Smith   0.0334
Brandin Cooks   0.0367
Zay Jones   0.0371
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine   0.0411
Hunter Henry   0.0455
T.J. Hockenson   0.0499

Quickly looking up the contracts for those... About half are on their rookie contracts, Westbrook-Ikhine on a 1-year league minimum, Zay Jones on 1-year $2.5 million, the rest between 10 and 20 million a year for 4 years, roughly half guaranteed.

If Gesicki is looking for something like $40 million for 4 years, half guaranteed, I'd be tempted to give it to him. That seems about where his value is. As a receiver.

(edited to round the numbers)

[Dolfanalyst]

Why is Gesicki being evaluated as a Tight End just because it says TE next to his name?

The guy lines up at receiver (wideout or slot) on 85% of his plays. The remaining includes various motions into the backfield as well as actual blocking TE (~10%). He's a receiver and if McDaniel evaluates him as a TE, he's an idiot. The team might prefer to have Gesicki listed as a tight end for whatever reasons, but that doesn't change what he brings to the table.

So, how does Gesicki compare if we look at what he actually is, a receiver that's actually decent (for a receiver) at blocking?

Looking at overall efficieny, as I know Dolfanalyst likes, gets very team-specific. Unless the receiver is consistently running the wrong routes or not "on the same page" as the quarterback, I prefer other metrics when trying to single out the receiver's contribution,

In 2021, Gesicki had 73 receptions on 79 "catchable" passes with 3 drops and 3 (lost) contested. His average distance down-field was 7.7 yards per catch, after which he gained an extra 3 yards after reception - of which 0.9 yards was after contact. His average target depth was 8.7 yards on 112 throws, yielding a catch rate of 65%. His defenders gave him a cushion of 6.5 yards on average and he managed a final separation of 2.8 yards. Finally, he had 1 broken tackle, 9 red zone targets, 2 touchdowns, and drew 1 DPI.

Let's quickly get comparisons with the other Dolphins receivers out of the way.

Parker: Much higher drop rate, more losses to defender, fewer YAC (-0.4y), +3y depth of target, league lowest separation, much lower catch rate (55%).

Waddle: Much higher drop rate, fewer losses to defender, more YAC (+1.2y), -2.2y depth of target, +0.5y separation, much higher catch rate (74%).

No other Dolphins receiver had more than 25 receptions making comparisons statistically suspect.

Albert Wilson was the highest (25) with nearly twice that of the next guy (Hollins at 14), so I'll include Wilson with the caveat that the sample size is low and some metrics were not available. Overall, Wilson had a much higher drop rate, higher loss rate to defender, ridiculously short target depth, but Cooper Kupp level of YAC.

Comparing Gesicki to other receivers around the league, there are some statistically very similar players if we restrict ourselves to 2021. Gesicki managed similar performance last year, which would "thin out" some of the rookies that pop op in the list, but Jacobi Meyers (UDFA, WR, NE) really does stand out with eerily similar stats.

If we just stick to NFL NextGen stats for receivers and use them all, without discriminating, the most similar receivers (least squares from normalized values) are:

Jakobi Meyers   NE   WR   0.24
Cole Beasley   BUF   WR   0.75
T.J. Hockenson   DET   TE   0.97
Robby Anderson   CAR   WR   0.99
Courtland Sutton   DEN   WR   1.11
Christian Kirk   ARI   WR   1.19
Zach Ertz   ARI   TE   1.28
Marvin Jones   JAX   WR   1.33
Allen Robinson   CHI   WR   1.36
Zach Pascal   IND   WR   1.40
Tyler Conklin   MIN   TE   1.45
Nelson Agholor   NE   WR   1.47

There are some stats missing that we'd really want to include, so if we include a dump of all the advanced stats from fantasypros.com, we can do the same thing (still naively including all metrics, regardless):

Jakobi Meyers   1.13
Marvin Jones   3.44
Cole Beasley   3.63
T.J. Hockenson   3.72
Zach Ertz   4.08
Noah Fant   4.27
Tyler Conklin   4.30
Nelson Agholor   4.34
Darren Waller   4.60
Emmanuel Sanders   4.75
Russell Gage   4.79
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine   4.80
Zach Pascal   4.84
DeVonta Smith   4.90

(The distance isn't divided by the number of metrics included, so it will naturally increase the more metrics we include)

If we try to trim the metrics down to the most receiver-specific instead of including everything but the kitchen sink, well, there are a million ways to slice it, but I would go with something like separation, yac/reception, airyards/reception, %caught-of-catchable... and then maybe include overall catch-percentage (not as much of an overlap with %caught-of-catchable as you'd think - and this stat hopefully catches something of how the receiver is at running the *right* routes). Then we get the following:

Jakobi Meyers   0.0116
Keenan Allen   0.0118
Rashod Bateman   0.0119
Sterling Shepard   0.0145
Stefon Diggs   0.0205
Joshua Palmer   0.0229
Michael Pittman   0.0245
Adam Thielen   0.0260
Russell Gage   0.0330
Tre'Quan Smith   0.0334
Brandin Cooks   0.0367
Zay Jones   0.0371
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine   0.0411
Hunter Henry   0.0455
T.J. Hockenson   0.0499

Quickly looking up the contracts for those... About half are on their rookie contracts, Westbrook-Ikhine on a 1-year league minimum, Zay Jones on 1-year $2.5 million, the rest between 10 and 20 million a year for 4 years, roughly half guaranteed.

If Gesicki is looking for something like $40 million for 4 years, half guaranteed, I'd be tempted to give it to him. That seems about where his value is. As a receiver.

(edited to round the numbers)

Great work.  I would pay him that as well, because it would lessen his cap hit from ~8.5% of the team's total cap (what was talked about earlier in the thread) to 4.8%, which would drop him well out of the company of alpha go-to receivers in terms of salary.  If he were willing to take that salary I would gladly depart with Parker and his salary and slide Gesicki right into Parker's spot.

My main goal is simply not to pay Gesicki as though he's the kind of alpha go-to guy virtually always seen on the teams with the best passing offenses in the league.  That kind of money needs to be reserved for a player who can actually fulfill that role, as that role is virtually essential for Super Bowl-level competitiveness in today's game.

[EDGECRUSHER]

^^^

Even though I have said repeatedly we have to go about our business like Parker isn't even on the roster, he only counts for $8.7 Million against the cap this year. Releasing him would only save $3.3 Million while creating $5.4 Million in dead money. There just is no benefit to it other than opening up a roster spot.

The guy does have talent, he just needs someone yelling at him all the time to be a man and stop missing 80% of the season due to soft tissue aches and pains. We definitely are not the toughest team in the league at WR.

[Dolfanalyst]

^^^

Even though I have said repeatedly we have to go about our business like Parker isn't even on the roster, he only counts for $8.7 Million against the cap this year. Releasing him would only save $3.3 Million while creating $5.4 Million in dead money. There just is no benefit to it other than opening up a roster spot.

The guy does have talent, he just needs someone yelling at him all the time to be a man and stop missing 80% of the season due to soft tissue aches and pains. We definitely are not the toughest team in the league at WR.

At this point I have to simply believe that Parker is one of those players for whom football isn't a passion in life.

Lots of us out there have jobs we aren't passionate about, that serve only to pay the bills.  Ricky Williams clued us in years ago on the fact that there's likely a sizable percentage of NFL football players of that ilk as well, and I have to think Parker is one of them.  And I don't think you win with players like that.

[EDGECRUSHER]

At this point I have to simply believe that Parker is one of those players for whom football isn't a passion in life.

Lots of us out there have jobs we aren't passionate about, that serve only to pay the bills.  Ricky Williams clued us in years ago on the fact that there's likely a sizable percentage of NFL football players of that ilk as well, and I have to think Parker is one of them.  And I don't think you win with players like that.

I feel the same way about Will Fuller. WR is not a brutal position all things considered and it pays very well. Just ride it out for a bit more and retire at 33.

[Spider-Dan]

I don't know about you guys, but I don't want injured receivers out there on the field dropping balls or stumbling through routes just to prove how tough they are.

If they say they're injured, next man up.  If 100% of Albert Wilson or Preston Williams isn't better than 60% of Devante Parker or Will Fuller, then MIA has other, more glaring problems.

[CF DolFan]

I don't know about you guys, but I don't want injured receivers out there on the field dropping balls or stumbling through routes just to prove how tough they are.

If they say they're injured, next man up.  If 100% of Albert Wilson or Preston Williams isn't better than 60% of Devante Parker or Will Fuller, then MIA has other, more glaring problems.

That's great and all in a perfect world but pretty much everyone is hurt in some way in the NFL. It's people like Parker though who seem to not be able to play unless they feel completely healthy. That puts him in the minority.

[Dolfanalyst]

This article has Gesicki signing with the Dolphins for 4 years and $55M, with $30M guaranteed:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-landing-spots-pff-top-50-free-agents

That I can live with if Parker and his salary are gone and the money allocated to the receiving corps has the necessary amount set aside for the alpha go-to guy the team needs.  Gesicki in Parker's spot, Waddle in the slot, a traditional TE who can block and catch, and a true alpha go-to guy of the Ja'Marr Chase mold would be what the passing game needs in my opinion.

The above article also has the Dolphins signing Allen Robinson for $16M a year and replacing the left side of the offensive line with Terron Armstead and Laken Tomlinson.

[EDGECRUSHER]

This article has Gesicki signing with the Dolphins for 4 years and $55M, with $30M guaranteed:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-landing-spots-pff-top-50-free-agents

That I can live with if Parker and his salary are gone and the money allocated to the receiving corps has the necessary amount set aside for the alpha go-to guy the team needs.  Gesicki in Parker's spot, Waddle in the slot, a traditional TE who can block and catch, and a true alpha go-to guy of the Ja'Marr Chase mold would be what the passing game needs in my opinion.

The above article also has the Dolphins signing Allen Robinson for $16M a year and replacing the left side of the offensive line with Terron Armstead and Laken Tomlinson.

Financially speaking, I don't think we can replace Jackson and Liam in free agency and still have money for other things. They are on rookie deals and giving up on either of them, especially Liam after one season may not be the way to go. RT must absolutely be upgraded and I won't be heartbroken if Jackson is gone, but Liam needs another shot and I still want to know what happened to Solomon Kindley.

Parker will be a Dolphin in 2022 unless we can find some team to give us a 2026 7th rounder for him. Dead money is too high and the cap savings is not much. We got money to spend, but paying top dollar for Gesicki while adding wide receivers and a $20 Million LT doesn't seem feasible while drafting 29th.

[Dolfanalyst]

Financially speaking, I don't think we can replace Jackson and Liam in free agency and still have money for other things. They are on rookie deals and giving up on either of them, especially Liam after one season may not be the way to go. RT must absolutely be upgraded and I won't be heartbroken if Jackson is gone, but Liam needs another shot and I still want to know what happened to Solomon Kindley.

Parker will be a Dolphin in 2022 unless we can find some team to give us a 2026 7th rounder for him. Dead money is too high and the cap savings is not much. We got money to spend, but paying top dollar for Gesicki while adding wide receivers and a $20 Million LT doesn't seem feasible while drafting 29th.

I think if they sign a left tackle we'll see Eichenberg moved to right tackle and Jesse Davis gone.  Also, if Parker is cut after June 1st the team saves $6M of cap money.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I think if they sign a left tackle we'll see Eichenberg moved to right tackle and Jesse Davis gone.  Also, if Parker is cut after June 1st the team saves $6M of cap money.

What I don't get with this whole thing: Tua is left handed, so RT should be where it all starts with the OL as it's his blind side.

Hunt was excellent at RT in 2020... we then move him to guard last season. He was still our best OL by a country mile in 2021... so why isn't he automatically penciled in for the most important position on the line?

I'll give Eichenberg a wee bit of leeway because it was only his rookie year, but for the life of me I can't see why he should be at RT instead of Hunt. If we are talking about the left side of the line and moving Jackson to guard, I can at least understand the reasoning...

As for Jesse Davis, the guy should never have been a starter to begin with. It beggars belief we had him at RT so long last season.

[Dolfanalyst]

What I don't get with this whole thing: Tua is left handed, so RT should be where it all starts with the OL as it's his blind side.

Hunt was excellent at RT in 2020... we then move him to guard last season. He was still our best OL by a country mile in 2021... so why isn't he automatically penciled in for the most important position on the line?

I'll give Eichenberg a wee bit of leeway because it was only his rookie year, but for the life of me I can't see why he should be at RT instead of Hunt. If we are talking about the left side of the line and moving Jackson to guard, I can at least understand the reasoning...

As for Jesse Davis, the guy should never have been a starter to begin with. It beggars belief we had him at RT so long last season.

The issue is that almost all teams have a right-handed QB, and so teams almost always place their best pass-rushers at RDE to attack the QB's blind side, thus necessitating high-quality left tackles to block those players.  Certainly the right tackle is more important to Tua than it is to right-handed QBs, but chances are that right tackle will be blocking someone of less ability than the left tackle will.