Miami Dolphins Cap Space and Moves

[fyo]

^ I wouldn't trade Parker for a 4th. I wouldn't be surprised if that's all we could get for him, but I wouldn't do it.

This is one of those cases where I feel teams massively overvalue lottery tickets, which is what 4th round picks are. Take a look at just receivers, since this is what Parker is, and in the past 4 years, there have been 21 receivers drafted in the 4th round. Of those exactly two thirds contributed *nothing* in the 2021 season. Of the 7 who did contribute, 3 had DVOAs so bad they would have ranked from 85th to way outside the top 100 - had they actually caught enough passes to be listed. They didn't. That leaves 4 guys out of 21: Gabriel Davis, Josh Reynolds, Antonio Callaway, and our own Mack Hollins. Of those, Hollins actually had the highest DVOA. So, basically, what you're HOPING for is a player like Mack Hollins - and the odds of even that small a prize are not great.

Parker's salary is less than $6 million a year for the next two years, so the contract isn't bad if you think you can use Parker in your offensive scheme.

[EDGECRUSHER]

^^^

You're not wrong,but he will truly be the 4th receiver unless Wilson Jr. sucks. Maybe even the 5th option behind Gesicki and we are going towards establishing the run a lot more. So, it comes down to "Will you accept this 4th rounder and some cap space for your 4th or 5th receiving target?". Most teams would say yes. Still, he does have talent when he tries so I would prefer to trade him to the Eagles. I don't want him in the AFC.

[fyo]

^ Wilson was certainly better than Parker last year, but that was Parker's worst year -- and the year before, Parker was better in both DVOA and DYAR. Wilson didn't look hot his rookie year, either.

I haven't watched much Cowboys football, so I haven't really seen him, but nothing on paper screams "upgrade". He is only two years younger - and more expensive - so I don't know.

[Dolfanalyst]

^ I wouldn't trade Parker for a 4th. I wouldn't be surprised if that's all we could get for him, but I wouldn't do it.

This is one of those cases where I feel teams massively overvalue lottery tickets, which is what 4th round picks are. Take a look at just receivers, since this is what Parker is, and in the past 4 years, there have been 21 receivers drafted in the 4th round. Of those exactly two thirds contributed *nothing* in the 2021 season. Of the 7 who did contribute, 3 had DVOAs so bad they would have ranked from 85th to way outside the top 100 - had they actually caught enough passes to be listed. They didn't. That leaves 4 guys out of 21: Gabriel Davis, Josh Reynolds, Antonio Callaway, and our own Mack Hollins. Of those, Hollins actually had the highest DVOA. So, basically, what you're HOPING for is a player like Mack Hollins - and the odds of even that small a prize are not great.

Parker's salary is less than $6 million a year for the next two years, so the contract isn't bad if you think you can use Parker in your offensive scheme.

I don't harbor any illusions that 4th-round picks have tremendous value, but nor do I believe Devante Parker has tremendous value.  The problem with Parker from my vantage point is that he's a low-effort player who earns among the highest salaries on the team, and that isn't consistent with an optimal team culture in my opinion.  Players like that should be jettisoned so they simply aren't paid by the team anymore.  I want my highest-paid players to be exemplars of effort and team commitment.  The value in trading him wouldn't come from the return on the trade -- it would come from simply his absence from the team.

[fyo]

^ The effort thing annoys me too. It's hard to know exactly what the deal is, since it seems like he'll have games where is fully committed and giving it his everything. Receiver salaries seem to have increased substantially the past few years and at $6 million a year, we're not even talking solid #2 receiver money if you're looking at a new contract. We happily paid Will Fuller $10 million to twiddle his thumbs last season - a receiver who had only once broken 800 yards receiving.

Put another way, if a 4th is the limit right now, I'd be tempted to play wait and see. Maybe he does well with the new coaches, maybe some team gets desperate before the season starts. Veteran players (4 years) have their contracts guaranteed if they are on the roster come week 1, so any decision would have to be made before then.

(But if we need his 5 million to keep X happy, I'm happy to ship him off now)

[Dolfanalyst]

^ The effort thing annoys me too. It's hard to know exactly what the deal is, since it seems like he'll have games where is fully committed and giving it his everything. Receiver salaries seem to have increased substantially the past few years and at $6 million a year, we're not even talking solid #2 receiver money if you're looking at a new contract. We happily paid Will Fuller $10 million to twiddle his thumbs last season - a receiver who had only once broken 800 yards receiving.

Put another way, if a 4th is the limit right now, I'd be tempted to play wait and see. Maybe he does well with the new coaches, maybe some team gets desperate before the season starts. Veteran players (4 years) have their contracts guaranteed if they are on the roster come week 1, so any decision would have to be made before then.

(But if we need his 5 million to keep X happy, I'm happy to ship him off now)

I can go for that.  No hurry.  It's just that I believe you have to compare not only what a player is making to other players throughout the league at his position, but also to what the other players on his own team are making.  You can't have veteran stalwarts at effort and team commitment making roughly the same as or less than Parker, and paying players like him that kind of money doesn't send the correct message to the young players about what the organization values and compensates.

[Spider-Dan]

If Parker is healthy (yes, I know that's a big if), he's a pretty good value relative to other receivers in the league.  I definitely wouldn't mind seeing a two-minute drill with Hill/Waddle/Wilson/Parker/Gesicki.

[Dolfanalyst]

If Parker is healthy (yes, I know that's a big if), he's a pretty good value relative to other receivers in the league.  I definitely wouldn't mind seeing a two-minute drill with Hill/Waddle/Wilson/Parker/Gesicki.

It's just difficult to look at things like this:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/cap/

...and see Parker's name so close to the top of the list.

[EDGECRUSHER]

If Parker is healthy (yes, I know that's a big if), he's a pretty good value relative to other receivers in the league.  I definitely wouldn't mind seeing a two-minute drill with Hill/Waddle/Wilson/Parker/Gesicki.

I always thought a lot of his injuries was just him not wanting to play at 90%. Not every single one, but when your best and healthiest season is a contract year, you don't get the benefit of the doubt.

But you're right. If he is fully healthy and is our 4th or 5th WR, then who can ever match us in that regard?

[Dolfanalyst]

I always thought a lot of his injuries was just him not wanting to play at 90%. Not every single one, but when your best and healthiest season is a contract year, you don't get the benefit of the doubt.

But you're right. If he is fully healthy and is our 4th or 5th WR, then who can ever match us in that regard?

If Parker takes the same number of offensive snaps this year he took last year, he'll make about $16,200 per snap against the salary cap.

If Cooper Kupp -- the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year -- does the same thing he'll make about $18,200 per snap against the salary cap.

[Spider-Dan]

It's just difficult to look at things like this:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/cap/

...and see Parker's name so close to the top of the list.

I think it's not useful to use the default sorting of cap hit when discussing if MIA should get rid of a player.  It's more useful to sort by dead cap - the cap hit MIA will take if he is traded or released.  And on that list, Parker is 16th, right behind (ahem) Noah Igbinoghene.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Just want to say that JC Tretter is still somehow a free agent and hoping we get him at a below market deal.

Are teams scared away because he is President of the NFLPA and they don't want him talking to their players about contracts and stuff? I just don't see why he is still available.

[CF DolFan]

I know I'm late to the party but I think we need Parker. Other than Gesicki we have no size and that's going to be needed ... especially in the red zone. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

I know I'm late to the party but I think we need Parker. Other than Gesicki we have no size and that's going to be needed ... especially in the red zone. 

I'm warming up to the idea because the baby might be motivated being knocked down to 4th or 5th option and knows his next contract won't be good unless he piles it on soon. Plus, injuries do happen and you can't have too much talent. He is just the kind of guy to be traded to the Steelers and go for 1200 yards next season. So, unless we get a decent enough offer from an NFC team, I am leaning towards keeping him.

On the other hand, you don't want his poor work ethic rubbing off on anyone and cap space is always appreciated. If someone like the Eagles offer a 3rd or a 4th? Hard to turn down.

[CF DolFan]

I'm warming up to the idea because the baby might be motivated being knocked down to 4th or 5th option and knows his next contract won't be good unless he piles it on soon. Plus, injuries do happen and you can't have too much talent. He is just the kind of guy to be traded to the Steelers and go for 1200 yards next season. So, unless we get a decent enough offer from an NFC team, I am leaning towards keeping him.

On the other hand, you don't want his poor work ethic rubbing off on anyone and cap space is always appreciated. If someone like the Eagles offer a 3rd or a 4th? Hard to turn down.

The biggest reason I want to see him gone is his lack of being there for us but just letting him go for the sake of it doesn't help our team and he can help us when he is healthy. I guess the other postive is he never gets into trouble or talks crap about the team so there is that.