Do you think Trump will run for President? Who would primary him?

[Dave Gray]

I go back and forth on whether I think he's going to run for President.

Right now, I'm leaning yes, because I think he believes it might offer him some additional legal protection and I think he will be able to finance his defense better, if an active candidate.

As for a primary, I think there will be one.  I don't think he'll run up-opposed.  The anti-trump movement isn't huge in the active GOP right now, but there is one.

Desantis is well-liked within the party, but does it make sense for him to face Trump directly, when he might have an easier path in waiting for 4 more years?
Pence seems to believe he's running, but he's unliked by everyone, so that's a weird one.  Also, he can't really run against the Trump administration since he was part of it.
Maybe Kinzinger or Cheney, but they're too unpopular.
Or maybe one of the previous guys like Romney or John Kasich that never got about the Trump bandwagon?
Or maybe one of the people that supported Trump but is an opportunist like Rubio or Cruz?
Or maybe some unknown?

It's so hard to predict for me.  What do you guys think?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

HE IS RUNNING.  The only question is when is he going to announce.  Before Nov 3 or after? 

As for his primary challengers. 

There will be at least one never Trumper.  Cheney, Kasich, Romney, or  Kinzinger.  More than one might announce, but I predict that before Iowa whoever isn't leading in the polls among that group will drop out and endorse the other. 

Pence isn't as much of a stretch as you think.   He won't get the support of the ultra-MAGA, after all they wanted to hang him.  And Democrats hate him for his policies (but they don't vote too much in Republican primaries).  But he is a traditional Christian conservative's wet dream.  He won't run against the Trump administrations accomplishments -- just against the January 6th riots.  In a race between Pence and Trump -- Pence will get the Cheney/Kinzinger/Romney endorsement.  Plus he will get the Christian conservatives who held their noses to vote for a serial wife cheater so they could get anti-Roe justices.

Both Abbot and DeSantos are already gearing up for a run.   

Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like DeVos or Chao toss their hat in; running a campaign similar to Pence. Support the Trump accomplishments but Jan 6 was a bridge to far.   

[EDGECRUSHER]

He will run, he will announce it after the midterms after the new Congress takes over and he won't face a real primary challenger, just the losers like Kinzinger or Cheney. Even then, they have no delusions of winning, just a money laundering scam through donations like all politicians do.

DeSantis is the only one who would be a little competitive against him but he won't risk his political career like Ted Cruz did in 2016 when he can just wait 4 years and run then. Cruz will never be POTUS after what Trump did to him in the primary, no man or woman could respect him once he campaigned for Trump after Donald said his Father killed JFK and his wife was ugly. Which is beyond hysterical and something I wish all politicians would do.

[CF DolFan]

Something that may throw a wrench into your theory. There have been some rumors that Trump is keeping the fire off of DeSantis and will support him after he wins Governor of Florida and begins his run. Hence, why he hasn't comitted to antything as of yet. If DeSantis leaves office before his term ends he would then be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez making her the first female gov of Florida. She would then get an audition and a chance for Floridians get to know her prior to running for Gov in two more years.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Something that may throw a wrench into your theory. There have been some rumors that Trump is keeping the fire off of DeSantis and will support him after he wins Governor of Florida and begins his run. Hence, why he hasn't comitted to antything as of yet. If DeSantis leaves office before his term ends he would then be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez making her the first female gov of Florida. She would then get an audition and a chance for Floridians get to know her prior to running for Gov in two more years.

DeSantis announces, Trump endorses him.  First question candidate DeSantis gets. "If elected President will you pardon Trump and end all the investigations?"

Three possible answers:

1.  "Absolutely.  Jan 6 was overblown, the raid on Mar Largo was a political move over nothing more serious than an overdue library book."   

If he takes this route, the Cheney/Kinzinger candidate runs their entire campaign on the issue that DeSantis is anti-democracy.  While DeSantis will still probably win the Republican nomination he will be too toxic for the general election.

2. "Absolutely not.  The rule of law matters.  Keeping out classified information safe is important. etc. "

Almost zero chance he would take this route, but if he did.  Within 24 hours someone from the Hawley/Bobert/Greene extreme MAGA-wing will be running to the right of DeSantis on a promise that Trump and everyone connected to Jan 6 will be pardoned on Jan 20, 2025.  Trump will immediately withdraw his support of DeSantis and supports the Hawley/Bobert candidate. 

3. He waffles. Gives a non-committal answer.  (Most likely scenario.)

This results in a hybrid of both things happening.  Cheney/Kinzinger blasts DeSantis for being non-committal on democracy.  The Hawley/Greene candidate blasts DeSantis for not being committed to Trump.  Trump continues to support DeSantis for about 2 days, but in a 2 am barely coherent post Trump withdraws his support of DeSantis comparing him to the traitor Mike Pence.   

[Spider-Dan]

There have been some rumors that Trump is keeping the fire off of DeSantis and will support him after he wins Governor of Florida and begins his run.

And naturally, this theory arose from the extensive prior history of Trump running interference and intentionally absorbing criticism so that another American (<--- this part is important) politician doesn't take as much heat.

As opposed to a reality in which Trump perpetually throws his erstwhile allies under the bus the instant it serves his own interests, no matter how petty those interests are.

[CF DolFan]

^^^^ I said it's a "rumor" and would be a good story if true but based on history I believe you are correct. I don't think the left has as many issues with Trump personally as they pretend meaning that when or if DeSantis takes his place he will face similar "character" attacks. Just how Trump was freinds with the left prior to running for office he quickly became the enemy although he's always been pretty much the same guy.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Something that may throw a wrench into your theory. There have been some rumors that Trump is keeping the fire off of DeSantis and will support him after he wins Governor of Florida and begins his run. Hence, why he hasn't comitted to antything as of yet. If DeSantis leaves office before his term ends he would then be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez making her the first female gov of Florida. She would then get an audition and a chance for Floridians get to know her prior to running for Gov in two more years.

Trump is leading in every poll taken so far for the GOP nomination, as well as a rematch against Biden. Combine that with his endorsed candidates doing well and his ego and there just is no chance that he doesn't run unless he has a health issue. He will probably make a deal with Ron that if he doesn't waste his time with a primary, that he will endorse him in 2028 or maybe give him a cabinet position, although his place as Governor is worth more than Secretary of Whatever.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^^ I said it's a "rumor" and would be a good story if true but based on history I believe you are correct. I don't think the left has as many issues with Trump personally as they pretend meaning that when or if DeSantis takes his place he will face similar "character" attacks. Just how Trump was freinds with the left prior to running for office he quickly became the enemy although he's always been pretty much the same guy.

Anyone who is pro-democracy, has plenty of issues with Trump.  His style of governing is fascist.  It is not pretend outrage.  We don’t want a fascist.  But yes, DeSantis will face similar criticism because he has embraced many of Trump’s fascism. Any candidate unwilling to state Biden won the election fairly and that Jan 6 was a coup attempt will be considered a fascist by any who isn’t a fascist.   

[CF DolFan]

Anyone who is pro-democracy, has plenty of issues with Trump.  His style of governing is fascist.  It is not pretend outrage.  We don’t want a fascist.  But yes, DeSantis will face similar criticism because he has embraced many of Trump’s fascism. Any candidate unwilling to state Biden won the election fairly and that Jan 6 was a coup attempt will be considered a fascist by any who isn’t a fascist.   

If only January 6th would have caused as much damage and death as the riots suppoorted and enouraged by the left then I guess we wouldn't still be trying to beat that dead horse now would we? If that unarmed "coup" is your biggest problem then you live in an amazingly blind bubble.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If only January 6th would have caused as much damage and death as the riots suppoorted and enouraged by the left then I guess we wouldn't still be trying to beat that dead horse now would we? If that unarmed "coup" is your biggest problem then you live in an amazingly blind bubble.

Goal of protest by left: end police brutality.

Goal of protests by the right: end democracy. 

Not the same thing. 

[Dave Gray]

Trump is leading in every poll taken so far for the GOP nomination, as well as a rematch against Biden.

He is leading in GOP polls against primary opponents, yes.  I don't put much stock in that.  Everyone always picks the name vs. the unknown, but once you get on a debate stage, those numbers can and always do move a lot.

He isn't winning against Biden, though, in most polls.  That's just not true.  It's kinda close, and some polls have Trump slightly ahead, but more often than not, Biden leads nationally.

This might sound crazy to you, but the person to polls highest in a head to head against Biden is Liz Cheney, who is +16 in all polls.  

Only two polls out of 7 have Trump over Biden head to head, and those are +3 and +2 (within margin of error).  Biden wins the other five polls between 2 and 6 points.  

Trump wins 3 way races with Biden/Cheney by a good margin.

In polling right now:
Trump beats Harris.
Harris beats DeSantis
Biden beats DeSantis


That's just polling right now, though.  I think that DeSantis is more generally electable than Trump at a national level.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Re polls: at this point in 2014 Jeb Bush was the Republican nominee

[EDGECRUSHER]

Re polls: at this point in 2014 Jeb Bush was the Republican nominee

The polling industry has been a disaster for many years now, half of them are just manipulated to increase fundraising or skew the RCP averages, especially YouGov. No one wanted Jeb in 2016, but he was the hand picked establishment guy, that's why he started his campaign with $100 Million in the bank. Then, some funny asshole came along, called him Low Energy and ended his political career.

[Dave Gray]

The polling industry has been a disaster for many years now, half of them are just manipulated to increase fundraising or skew the RCP averages, especially YouGov. No one wanted Jeb in 2016, but he was the hand picked establishment guy, that's why he started his campaign with $100 Million in the bank. Then, some funny asshole came along, called him Low Energy and ended his political career.

I agree, but I use that same argument against Trump in this next cycle.  Polls have him way ahead in the GOP primary, but that's before you get 5 other GOPers calling him a treasonist and a threat to democracy for 6 months.  That could roll off his back or it could cause the public to jump on someone else.  There's just so much time and these campaigns are really long with a lot that can happen.