Ravens to Exclusive Franchise Tag Lamar Jackson at $45 Million

[fyo]

He can't even accurately judge his free-agent value right now, for two reasons:

1) Teams know BAL has right-to-match, so they are disincentivized from doing the work to offer Jackson anything LESS than a ridiculously over-the-top offer
2) The cost of Jackson's contract also includes two first-round picks

He cannot judge his free-agent value, but since he's not going to be a free agent anytime soon, that's not a relevant number. What he can get a sense of is his value - as in, what would he actually be able to get from other teams right now (and, by extension, from the Ravens, provided they match).

Two first round picks definitely lowers the price other teams would be willing to pay him, but (as argued above) I don't believe two firsts to be a massive stumbling block.

As for teams not willing to spend a bit of time talking with Jackson and putting together an offer for risk that the Ravens would match it, is that really a huge deterrent? If a team wants Jackson, what's the downside to talking to him and seeing if he would accept X contract? Yeah, the Ravens might match it, but that's just effectively the same as the player turning down the contract: You made an offer, you didn't get the player. What did you lose by trying?

[EDGECRUSHER]

Let's be real here for a second. Lamar Jackson only just turned 26. He could easily have a decade of top level play ahead of him and his previous accomplishments speak for themselves. Two first round picks for Jackson is not a huge stumbling block. The Broncos gave up 2 firsts and 2 seconds for Russel Wilson. Carson Palmer went to the Raiders for a first and a second, despite having played 7 seasons for the Bengals and shown exactly what his ceiling was. If you look at the actual value of first round draft picks, two firsts is cheap for Jackson.

https://www.nfl.com/players/lamar-jackson/stats/

It isn't, but a giant contract plus two 1st rounders is a big risk for a guy who ended his last 2 seasons on IR and I think we all need to dive deep into his stats. He really wasn't lighting the world on fire the past 2 years and that MVP award was 4 years ago now. Certainly not a bad player, still a good player but his stats and health are both trending down. I think a lot of teams would love to have him but they don't want him at the cost of a Mahomes contract plus two 1st rounders.

[CF DolFan]

My father never liked RG3 only becaue he said he wouldn't last long. We used to argue about this but in the end I turned out to be wrong. I kind of feel that way about Lamar. He's one play away from losing his career. It's similar to why I wouldn't pay Tua big money long term. He's good but for how much longer?

[fyo]

https://www.nfl.com/players/lamar-jackson/stats/

It isn't, but a giant contract plus two 1st rounders is a big risk for a guy who ended his last 2 seasons on IR and I think we all need to dive deep into his stats. He really wasn't lighting the world on fire the past 2 years and that MVP award was 4 years ago now. Certainly not a bad player, still a good player but his stats and health are both trending down. I think a lot of teams would love to have him but they don't want him at the cost of a Mahomes contract plus two 1st rounders.

With that logic, the Ravens would *not* match a contract offer and take the two firsts instead. The situation is symmetrical with two first round picks on one side and Lamar Jackson plus the contract on the other. The Ravens just get the right to choose which side they want to have. Make no mistake, if they choose to match, they are *losing* two first round picks that they would otherwise have gotten (opportunity cost).

The assumption that there is no contract value that would result in an equilibrium, suggests that there is a huge disagreement between the Ravens and other teams as to what Lamar Jackson is worth.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Lamar continues to be an idiot. He still has no agent but he is sending around someone kind of acting like his agent to negotiate for him. Thing is, that is not allowed under NFL rules so the league just had to issue a warning to all teams to NOT discuss anything with this person, only Lamar.

Just based off intellect alone, I would not want to commit long term to Lamar. At this point, I think Baltimore would take the two 1st rounders if they came from a team currently in the Top 10.

[masterfins]

c) realize his value isn't quite as high as he thought when no other team is willing to give him $250 million for 5 years, everything guaranteed, or whatever it is he's looking for. With that realization, he might just reach an agreement with the Ravens.

Well it's not as simple as that, as you now.  A new team would not only have to pay Lamar what he thinks he's worth, they would also have to give up two first round picks.  That's a huge hurdle to get over. He could be willing to take $200 million guaranteed, but tack on two first rounders and most teams don't have the ability to do that, the Bears are the only team that I can think of that have a lot of draft capital.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Lamar just said that he requested a trade on March 2nd. I think that is what led the Ravens to giving him the non-exclusive tag and letting him find what his market value is. For various factors, it's not really working out for him. His lack of agent is has created a lot of these problems and if he gets hurt one more time, he is going to cost himself well over $100 Million.

The Ravens have no intention of cutting you within the next 5 years, so the only way you don't get your whole contract is if you suck or can't stay on the field. In that case, why begrudge the Ravens for wanting some insurance? If you suck this year, you will bever get a deal like that again. If you're awesome, they're franchising you if you don't agree long term anyway.

[CF DolFan]

Let me just say I'm beginning to think Lamar is dumb enough to sit out this next year. He seems hell bent on doing things his way and no one wants or can play with him. He's trying to send a friend around to talk with teams and teams can only speak directly with the player if he doesn't have an agent who has an agreement with the players union. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

Let me just say I'm beginning to think Lamar is dumb enough to sit out this next year. He seems hell bent on doing things his way and no one wants or can play with him. He's trying to send a friend around to talk with teams and teams can only speak directly with the player if he doesn't have an agent who has an agreement with the players union. 

“As of March 2nd I requested a trade from the Ravens organization for which the Ravens has not been interested in meeting my value, any and everyone that’s has met me or been around me know I love the game of football and my dream is to help a team win the super bowl,” Jackson wrote in a multi-tweet “letter” to his fans.

“You all are great but I had to make a business decision that was best for my family and I. No matter how far I go or where my career takes me, I’ll continue to be close to my fans of Baltimore Flock nation and the entire State of Maryland. You’ll See me again.”

He writes at a 6th grade level. He is a genuinely stupid person. I know agents can be scummy and no one wants 5-10% of their contract to go towards them, but there is a reason they are used. Does Lamar think the contract will just be the financials and lines for signatures?

This "tweet letter" of his probably scared off the only teams left that were interested in him.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Lamar has agreed to a 5 year extension with Baltimore. Details aren't out yet but it's supposed to be higher than what Hurts just signed for. Sticking point was always the guaranteed money. Considering his play and health has declined the past 2 seasons, I would imagine the contract is essentially a 2-3 year deal that the Ravens can walk away from if he doesn't bounce back.

[fyo]

Rapoport is reporting $260 million total including $185 million guaranteed. As a comparison, Hurts got $255 million total, $179 million guaranteed.

The devil is obviously always in the details and the structure/conditions can obviously massively affect the amount that is *practically* guaranteed.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Rapoport is reporting $260 million total including $185 million guaranteed. As a comparison, Hurts got $255 million total, $179 million guaranteed.

The devil is obviously always in the details and the structure/conditions can obviously massively affect the amount that is *practically* guaranteed.

Exactly, I still think it will be a 2-3 year deal that they can walk away from if he keeps getting hurt. Too much of his value is in his running but that never lasts due to wear and tear. Even Josh Allen and the Bills basically said he is done running so much because he's too valuable to lose to injury.

[masterfins]

Well Lamar Jackson has proved he was worth the pay he fought for.