Should Tua Be Extended Now?

[EDGECRUSHER]

Jalen Hurts is in the final year of his deal as he was a 2nd rounder with no 5th year option and it's looking like he will be getting $50 Million a year. Herbert and Burrow are looking at that number too and Lamar Jackson seems to be refusing to sign for less than that as well.

Tua was the best QB in the NFL for more than half the season and was obviously injured for several games as well. If you extend him now, perhaps we can get away with just $40 Million a year. It's a risk due to health and regression, but we need to face the reality that no one of worth will ever be a free agent, we will never suck enough to draft Top 5 again and we don't have the capital to trade for one. We should go all in on Tua and hope it works out.

If his 2023 season is on par with his 2022 season and he stays healthy, he's going to get more money than whatever Burrow and Herbert get, that's just the way it goes. We need to start thinking about the salary cap in the future and where we can save.

[Spider-Dan]

I'd say no.

1) MIA has control of Tua for two more seasons.  There's still plenty of time before they have to pay him.
2) If you give a player an extension, to me that should mean that you will still want him on your team at the end of next season no matter how he plays in that season.  I think this is the case with both Burrow and Herbert on their teams; no matter how bad of a season they could have in 2023, they would still be the entrenched, unquestioned starter for 2024.  And I don't think the Dolphins are there with Tua yet.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I'd say no.

1) MIA has control of Tua for two more seasons.  There's still plenty of time before they have to pay him.
2) If you give a player an extension, to me that should mean that you will still want him on your team at the end of next season no matter how he plays in that season.  I think this is the case with both Burrow and Herbert on their teams; no matter how bad of a season they could have in 2023, they would still be the entrenched, unquestioned starter for 2024.  And I don't think the Dolphins are there with Tua yet.

I don't necessarily think Tua deserves that massive extension, I'm just trying to be practical. The numbers for QBs are going through the roof and Tua is kinda "buy low" right now. If close to 25% of your cap is going to one guy, you're going to have to be creative and smart and take risks in hopes of maintaining all of your talent.

[fyo]

I think you exercise the 5th-year option. For Tua, that's $23 million. Had he made the Pro Bowl (not reserve), that number would have been $29.5 million. The decision on the 5th-year option has to be made by May 1.

That locks him up for 2024 and, while not cheap, it is relatively low risk.

The problem I have with a massive extension for Tua right now is that he has, objectively, only had one good season and there are some fairly significant injury issues. Sure, the experts that the Dolphins have consulted with concluded that he's at no increased risk of concussions going forward, but that's an "everything else being equal" answer and doesn't take into account any increased risk Tua might have due to his own actions, way of falling, movement, decision-making, etc.

I WANT to believe that he'll take fewer chances next season. I WANT to believe that those judo lessons he's taking to learn how to fall will help. I WANT to believe that he'll continue to perform at an elite level (when not concussed).

I just think giving him a huge contract right now is too much of a risk. I'd rather go with the 5th-year option and then extend him before the 2024 season. Yes, it will be more expensive if he performs well, but in terms of risk-reward, I think that's the best path forward.

I've read some pundits arguing that the Dolphins should decline Tua's option year and not sign him to an extension either - simply treat 2023 as a prove-it year. I don't like that at all. As a Dolphins fan, I don't want Tua put in a situation where he feels pressured to take chances in order to prove something. He needs to get smarter and take better care of himself and that's what will get us the best return in the long run. The constant media noise about the team not trusting him would also be a major distraction.

Ultimately, what's the upside if you go that route? If Tua plays really well, you're screwing yourself big time. What if Tua plays well, but not great? At that point, you're not signing him a new contract for significantly less than $23 million a year, since that's Goff/Stafford/Wenz money, not top-tier. So that scenario would be, at best, a wash. The only way you come out "ahead" is if he completely bombs and that seems like the most unlikely case, IMHO, but going this path would be huge indicator that the TEAM feels this case to be quite likely and that, in itself, might hamstring the season.

[Spider-Dan]

I agree with fyo.
Exercising the 5th-year option this spring is a no-brainer in my eyes; at the end of next season, that's when you make the decision on what kind of extension you want to give him.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I agree with fyo.
Exercising the 5th-year option this spring is a no-brainer in my eyes; at the end of next season, that's when you make the decision on what kind of extension you want to give him.

I have nothing against this position as my only argument for extension now was cap savings. If our boy is a Top 3 QB this year, back up the truck. Although, I feel like he has such a good relationship with McDaniel that we might be able to do his contract in a way where we can keep Brady'ing it every 2 years to be able to sign or retain our other guys.

[CF DolFan]

I've finally decided my position and it's a big no from me. If Tua has a great season we will be signing him to a long term deal and if he misses a bunch or can't fininsh thw season we won't be. Either way guaranteeing him the 5th year won;t save us anything but it will put us at risk of paying for QB that can't play.

[Spider-Dan]

If you exercise the 5th-year option now and Tua has a great season, that 5th year will definitely be cheaper than any year of his new extension.  You'd be buying an extra year of the extension on the cheap.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If Dolphins extend him now the base number will be ~$23 million a year.  If you wait until next year the base number will be ~$35 million a year. 

[Spider-Dan]

I think the key factor in the decision is this:

Are the Dolphins mentally prepared to absolutely, completely, 100% sever all ties with Tua depending on the outcome of the 2023 season?

If the Dolphins are not ready to completely cut their losses and move on fully from Tua at the end of next season, they MUST exercise the 5th-year option now.  If this is the prove-it-year of all prove-it-years, then fine: MIA had better be ready to either let Tua walk or sign him to a $200M contract, with no middle ground.

But if there is a middle ground - if the Dolphins are entertaining the possibility of limited, conditional commitment - then it doesn't make sense to decline the 5th year, which comes at a cheaper price than any plausible extension AND gives MIA an additional year to make a final evaluation.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I've finally decided my position and it's a big no from me. If Tua has a great season we will be signing him to a long term deal and if he misses a bunch or can't fininsh thw season we won't be. Either way guaranteeing him the 5th year won;t save us anything but it will put us at risk of paying for QB that can't play.

I was talking about a long term extension, not the 5th year option. Picking up the 5th year option is a no brainer as it is just $23 Million. Daniel Jones fired his agent because he isn't happy with the Giants $30+ Million a year offer and is looking at closer to $40 Million. That's the QB market for starters. If Tua throws more INTs than TD's this year and we let him walk, some team will give him $30 Million anyway.

This is all about potential savings and no viable replacement options. No draft capital to use on a new QB. No draft capital to use to trade for a QB. It's basically Tua or a lottery ticket 5th rounder for the next several years. So, extend him now and hope to save an extra $8 Million a year against the cap or wait and see and hope he doesn't command $50 Million a year.

[CF DolFan]

I think the key factor in the decision is this:

Are the Dolphins mentally prepared to absolutely, completely, 100% sever all ties with Tua depending on the outcome of the 2023 season?

I think that it will settle itself. Either he is able to play and will do well or he isn't able to play and will have to find some other plan.

King of off topic but I saw an interview with Alec Ingold last night and he said McMichael would constantly point out how much Tua was doing in his play including skipping progressions and "inventing" new plays by what he was looking at.

[CF DolFan]

I was talking about a long term extension, not the 5th year option. Picking up the 5th year option is a no brainer as it is just $23 Million. Daniel Jones fired his agent because he isn't happy with the Giants $30+ Million a year offer and is looking at closer to $40 Million. That's the QB market for starters. If Tua throws more INTs than TD's this year and we let him walk, some team will give him $30 Million anyway.

This is all about potential savings and no viable replacement options. No draft capital to use on a new QB. No draft capital to use to trade for a QB. It's basically Tua or a lottery ticket 5th rounder for the next several years. So, extend him now and hope to save an extra $8 Million a year against the cap or wait and see and hope he doesn't command $50 Million a year.

That doesn't change my answer. This next year will deterine a lot and if he isn't worth it we will not resign him. If he is then we are going to pay him at least 35 million a year if not more.

[Spider-Dan]

King of off topic but I saw an interview with Alec Ingold last night and he said McMichael would constantly point out how much Tua was doing in his play including skipping progressions and "inventing" new plays by what he was looking at.

Was this presented as a good or bad thing?

[CF DolFan]

Was this presented as a good or bad thing?

Good. He was bascially saying Tua has a really high football IQ