Who will be the GOP nominee?

[Dave Gray]

I don't have inside information, but when you see reports of people close to Trump saying that he's freaking out, not to mention looking at his tweeting behavior when paired with various announcements from the justice department, I would say that there's at least some evidence that he's scared.

I'd be scared.

[pondwater]

I don't have inside information, but when you see reports of people close to Trump saying that he's freaking out, not to mention looking at his tweeting behavior when paired with various announcements from the justice department, I would say that there's at least some evidence that he's scared.

I'd be scared.

Hell, even if he goes to prison there's no doubt that he'll be in a "country club-type place" and have it better than the guys in Goodfellas did. Probably get to play golf, eat fancy food, and all sorts of other shit that regular people wouldn't have access to.

[Spider-Dan]

Ron DeSantis: You Have to Meet Me to Like Me

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen woe after woe in his campaign for the Republican nomination, forcing him to cut staff and actually engage with traditional media outlets.

But the governor seemingly donned a pair of rose-colored lenses in an interview on Fox News’ MediaBuzz on Sunday, downplaying problems and pointing to his trips to early primary states. It’s there, he told host Howard Kurtz, where he’s found his voting audience—once they meet him in person.

“We were just in Iowa on Friday at the Family Leaders Summit. That was effectively the kickoff to Iowa caucus season,” DeSantis said. “So Iowans are starting to pay more attention to it. We were able to talk to thousands of people over a two-day period, and the number one thing I hear from people is this. They’re like, ‘Yeah, you know, I knew you did good things in Florida, but I hadn’t seen you yet, and now that I’ve seen you, I’m for you.’”

DeSantis’ claim comes despite an avalanche of media reports about his personal awkwardness and questions about whether he has the charisma to succeed on the trail.

---

Tiny D's campaign has cratered; he's currently running closer to Mike Pence than he is to Donald Trump.  Are we still pretending this guy has any hope to win the GOP primary if Donald Trump is still breathing?  He's the Jeb Bush of Scott Walkers.

[CF DolFan]

Ron DeSantis: You Have to Meet Me to Like Me

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen woe after woe in his campaign for the Republican nomination, forcing him to cut staff and actually engage with traditional media outlets.

But the governor seemingly donned a pair of rose-colored lenses in an interview on Fox News’ MediaBuzz on Sunday, downplaying problems and pointing to his trips to early primary states. It’s there, he told host Howard Kurtz, where he’s found his voting audience—once they meet him in person.

“We were just in Iowa on Friday at the Family Leaders Summit. That was effectively the kickoff to Iowa caucus season,” DeSantis said. “So Iowans are starting to pay more attention to it. We were able to talk to thousands of people over a two-day period, and the number one thing I hear from people is this. They’re like, ‘Yeah, you know, I knew you did good things in Florida, but I hadn’t seen you yet, and now that I’ve seen you, I’m for you.’”

DeSantis’ claim comes despite an avalanche of media reports about his personal awkwardness and questions about whether he has the charisma to succeed on the trail.

---

Tiny D's campaign has cratered; he's currently running closer to Mike Pence than he is to Donald Trump.  Are we still pretending this guy has any hope to win the GOP primary if Donald Trump is still breathing?  He's the Jeb Bush of Scott Walkers.

Regardless of how this turns out you need to take a break on the issue. Millions of people have Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) but I do believe you are the first to have DeSantis derangement syndrome (DDS). This really shouldn't have the control of you that it does.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

recognizing trump lite is fascist is not a derangement, it is reality.  You would not doubt have accused August Landmesser of having HDS.

[Dave Gray]

Desantis set up the first part of the campaign alright.  Name recognition, he was presumed to be next in line after Trump.

But he has faltered and misplayed pretty much everything since.  Also, he just isn't very likable as a human, which is hard to overcome.

So yeah, he's probably done.  Even if Trump falters, unless they literally just default to Desantis because there's nobody else, it will probably be someone else.

[Spider-Dan]

Regardless of how this turns out you need to take a break on the issue. Millions of people have Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) but I do believe you are the first to have DeSantis derangement syndrome (DDS). This really shouldn't have the control of you that it does.

The DeSantis fan club is now complaining about too much DeSantis talk?  Seems like even you are waving the white flag at this point.

How far along are you towards making emotional peace with your upcoming vote for Trump?  Just remember that you aren't voting for an angel-in-chief.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Lets talk about Vivek Ramaswamy, who in some polls is as high as 3rd place, in other polls he isn't doing quite as well.

He has a bold plan: realizing that his positions and the GOP in general is highly unpopular with younger voters, he want to raise the voting age to 25.

[Spider-Dan]

Although we all know by now that Trump will easily win the primary if he is still breathing, the race for who will finish second is still moderately interesting.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Christie will win enough fans for attacking Trump to come in second.  Tiny D is just going to bleed support from here on out, and Christie is the only candidate that's doing something markedly different than the rest (taking on Trump directly).  If you're one of the few Republicans that actually means it when they say they are done with Trump (and therefore does not reflexively oppose any candidate that attacks him), Christie seems like he embodies all the rest of the "values" y'all claim you support.

All the other candidates face the impossible task of trying to defeat Trump while simultaneously giving him a tongue bath.  Christie, at the very least, is pursuing a strategy that makes sense: attack your opponent directly.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Will Will Hurd be heard or will a herd of Maga block Will Hurd from being heard?

[Spider-Dan]

Poll of Florida voters conducted from 6/27-7/1 by FAU/Mainstreet research

Among GOP registered voters:

"If the GOP Presidential Primary were held today, which candidate would you vote for?"

50% Trump
30% DeSantis
7% undecided
4% Ramaswamy
3% Scott
[several candidates at 2% or below]

Limiting the candidates to Trump and DeSantis:
54% Trump
37% DeSantis
8% undecided

[Fau Teixeira]

Those numbers are better for Desantis than the national polls .. at least in florida 30% of the people like him

[Sunstroke]

Hell, even if he goes to prison there's no doubt that he'll be in a "country club-type place" and have it better than the guys in Goodfellas did. Probably get to play golf, eat fancy food, and all sorts of other shit that regular people wouldn't have access to.

Agree completely, but as long as he can't tweet or talk directly to the media for the term of his imprisonment, I'd call it a win.

[Spider-Dan]

Looks like Chris Christie is surging (such as it is) in NH:



It's all theater at this point.  If Trump is still breathing, he will be the 2024 GOP nominee.  Every additional indictment expands his lead; a conviction would cement it.

[Dave Gray]

There's still a lot of time left.

I agree that Trump is the likely nominee because even though he's nationally unelectable, the GOP doesn't seem to have caught up with that idea yet.  However, you never know.  I think there are a lot of people who don't pay attention to this stuff that just aren't going to vote for a guy who is going to get convicted of multiple felonies.

Momentum is huge in politics.  As people start dropping out and coalescing around a candidate, as some change strategies, as we start debates and Trump isn't there -- who knows how any of that will play out.