Dolphins' McDaniel #2 in the league for 4th-down aggressiveness

[Spider-Dan]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2023/sirianni-leads-aggressiveness-index-2022

Sirianni and the Eagles were #1 in aggressiveness on 4th down, but McDaniel came in right behind him:

Sirianni was sixth in Football Outsiders' Aggressiveness Index in 2021 but climbed into the top spot this year. What stood out the most is that Sirianni went for it on 13 of 14 qualifying fourth-and-1 opportunities during the regular season, with the Eagles converting on 10 of these. (They were also 2-for-2 in the postseason.) Sirianni also stood out by going for it on six of 10 qualifying opportunities in "no man's land" between the 34- and 39-yard-line where a head coach has to choose between a short punt, a long field goal, or a chance to convert on fourth down.

The next couple of coaches in Aggressiveness Index may be a surprise to you. Mike McDaniel was extremely aggressive in his first year with the Dolphins, finishing second in AI. McDaniel finished that high despite never going for it in eight qualifying fourth-and-2 opportunities! Arthur Smith of the Falcons finished third, a marked difference from the year before as his AI climbed from 0.89 in 2021 to 1.51 in 2022. The coaches after that are mostly the coaches that were on top of AI in previous years: Kliff Kingsbury fourth, Matt LaFleur fifth, Dan Campbell sixth, Sean McDermott seventh, and Kevin Stefanski eighth.

Robert Saleh of the Jets was the least aggressive coach in the league when compared to his peers, including a decision to go for it on only three of 12 qualifying fourth-and-1s. Other very conservative coaches included Mike Tomlin, who has always been very conservative, and Bill Belichick, whose career has been very strange in this area. As we've written about in the past, Belichick was one of the most aggressive coaches in the league year after year back when the league as a whole was much less aggressive. He inexplicably became much less aggressive on fourth downs around 2012, strange timing because it doesn't fit the two most common explanations for why Belichick became less aggressive. It wasn't timed to the failed fourth-and-2 against Indianapolis on a big Sunday night game in 2009, and it wasn't timed to the departure of Tom Brady which of course made it harder for the Patriots to convert in any situation, much less fourth down.

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Personally, I am happy with this development.  Obviously, this feels a lot better when you're converting them!  But the days of Wanny or Sparano punting on 4th-and-1 from the 48-yard-line are happily over.

[fyo]

It's a worrying sign that we didn't go for it a single time on 4-2. Not that we didn't go for it directly, but that our offensive line and running back situation was so bad that going for it would have been very unlikely to succeed.

[EDGECRUSHER]

This is good and I hope it continues in 2023. Maybe we get a big bruising fullback and do it even more.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Eagles were 22 out of 32 on 4th down(69%).  Dolphins were 13 for 24. (54%).  Being aggressive makes sense if you can back it up, being aggressive when you aren't hurts you. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

Eagles were 22 out of 32 on 4th down(69%).  Dolphins were 13 for 24. (54%).  Being aggressive makes sense if you can back it up, being aggressive when you aren't hurts you. 

An improved defense will make us more aggressive. Going for it on 4th and 3 from your opponents 42 isn't so bad when you fail if your secondary can actually guard people. If Sanders is still our kicker and struggles again, expect to see a lot more 4th down attempts until we replace him.