The Ravens game

[dolphins4life]

This game could be huge measuring stick not only for the Dolphins, but for the rest of the league.

The Ravens just obliterated the 49ers on Monday.  If Miami can even just hang close with them, it's a very good sign.

A win would be awesome, but to just stay close would be just fine.

Also, does this mean that the NFC is much weaker than the AFC this year?

If Miami gets blown out, it could mean that the Ravens are a cut above everybody else in the league.

[Denver2]

Man I can’t wait.

This is an opportunity of a life time.

Go in and beat what appears to be the best team in the league. Win out get #1.

Never thought I’d see this in all the horror years as a fan.

Remains to be seen but I’ll honestly be satisfied if they can hang tough with Baltimore beat Buffalo and win 1 at least playoff game.

Kudos to McD I hope he rises to the challenge.

I can’t wait until Sunday! Games on TV here. I’m scared as hell but let’s go!

[Dolfanalyst]

The Ravens didn't obliterate the 49ers in any way that would be expected to be replicated against another team or even against the 49ers again themselves.  They benefited from a largely random variable -- turnovers, and an unusually high number of them.  In fact if the two teams played again today in SF, SF would be favored again and expected to win.

Nobody should think the Ravens are "as good" as they were against the 49ers.  They certainly aren't 14 points better than the 49ers and aren't even better than them in general.  Right now the Ravens are favored by 3 at home against the Dolphins.  If they were truly 14 points better than the 49ers in SF, they'd be favored by far more than 3 at home against the Dolphins.  Vegas certainly recognizes the randomness at hand and appropriately so.

[Dave Gray]

I tend to agree with Dolfanalyst here.

The NFL fandom and analysis is so reactionary to what just occurred.  The 3.5 line they have with Miami seems about right.  On a neutral field, Raven may just barely be favored.  At home, they'll be harder to beat.

[Spider-Dan]

I didn't hear much of that "That was a fluke and wouldn't happen again, we should basically ignore it" talk here when the Dolphins lost to the Titans on a last minute score.  Instead, it was how such an unlikely loss was ACTUALLY an indicator that the Dolphins are deeply flawed.

[Dolfanalyst]

A last-minute score isn't a fluke if it results from plays that don't have a high degree of randomness.  The Dolphins' last-minute score against Dallas for example was not a fluke.

[Spider-Dan]

The Dolphins lost to a team that they are superior to in nearly every metric.
If MIA and TEN were to play again, MIA would be favored again... by more than SF would be favored against BAL.
None of this kind of "This likely wouldn't be replicated" insight was offered after the loss to the Titans.  Instead, it was doom and gloom.

Perhaps instead of obsessing over who Vegas thinks would win a rematch, we should focus on the game on the schedule.  MIA can clinch the division with a win on Sunday, in a road game they are expected to lose, against an opponent that they had a breakout game against last season.  There is significant room for optimism.

[Dolfanalyst]

None of this kind of "This likely wouldn't be replicated" insight was offered after the loss to the Titans.

If such an adjustment were made it would've favored the Titans.  The Dolphins, against the Titans, were the beneficiaries of the same kind of random events the Ravens were against SF.  Adjust for those plays and the Dolphins lose the game convincingly, as opposed to in last-minute fashion.  I said as much after the game, but apparently you're paying attention only to what fits your suspicions here.

"Must make Dolfanalyst appear biased."  Good luck with that mission of yours.

[Spider-Dan]

If such an adjustment were made it would've favored the Titans.  The Dolphins, against the Titans, were the beneficiaries of the same kind of random events the Ravens were against SF.  Adjust for those plays and the Dolphins lose the game convincingly, as opposed to in last-minute fashion.

In other words, the Dolphins would have lost in the same manner that the 49ers lost to the Ravens: an uncompetitive blowout.
But somehow, the 49ers getting blown out is not particularly indicative of anything meaningful because Vegas would favor them in a rematch.  Meanwhile, Miami losing a close game to the Titans is evidence of the deep unseriousness of the team, even though... Vegas would also favor them in a rematch.

This is science, y'all.

[Dolfanalyst]

In other words, the Dolphins would have lost in the same manner that the 49ers lost to the Ravens: an uncompetitive blowout.
But somehow, the 49ers getting blown out is not particularly indicative of anything meaningful because Vegas would favor them in a rematch.  Meanwhile, Miami losing a close game to the Titans is evidence of the deep unseriousness of the team, even though... Vegas would also favor them in a rematch.

This is science, y'all.

The 49ers' loss could indeed be indicative of something meaningful about them.  What we do know is that the Dolphins' end zone celebrations ended after the Titans game, and they have a blowout against a relatively poor team and their first win of the season against one of the league's best teams alongside it.

Sorry you were wrong.  Off you go!

[Dave Gray]

The analysis of the Titans game is unfair.  We were a lot closer to beating them by multiple scores than even losing at all.  It's amazing that it happened.  A much more likely outcome was that we won by 3 scores.

[Dolfanalyst]

The analysis of the Titans game is unfair.  We were a lot closer to beating them by multiple scores than even losing at all.  It's amazing that it happened.  A much more likely outcome was that we won by 3 scores.

A team can be ahead as a function of largely random versus largely non-random variables.  Turnovers are largely random.  Yards and scores off of turnover returns are extremely random.  As in Baltimore's win over SF, which was accomplished via largely random variables (a turnover margin of +5), the Dolphins were ahead late over Tennessee primarily due to largely random variables, namely the pick-six, the fumbled punt deep in Tennessee territory, and the fumbled pitch deep in Tennessee territory.

Those plays alone accounted for 16.6 expected points added (EPA) for the Dolphins and were three of the four biggest plays in the game in terms of EPA.  Obviously if the two teams were to play again, anyone would be foolish to bet on those plays' happening again.  Why?  Because they're largely random.  Everyone who knows the game of football knows this intuitively, but it's not something frequently verbalized among fans.

What can become more informative than points under those kinds of circumstances, in reflecting how the two teams are playing absent the largely random component, is yards per play.  Tennessee had 5.9 yards per play in the game and the Dolphins 5.3.

Likewise the 49ers bettered the Ravens in yards per play 6.3 to 5.4.  Obviously a team is highly unlikely to overcome a -5 turnover margin, however, regardless of a significant difference in yards per play.

So, you had a Dolphins team that not only played fairly poorly outside the largely random plays they benefited from against Tennessee, but also one that was run over during the final three minutes in highly improbable manner, via plays that were not largely random.  An embarrassing performance to say the least.  This was why, again, end zone celebrations amidst such a performance were ridiculous.  The team wasn't playing anywhere near well enough to be putting on clown shows in the end zone.  They were being gifted a victory by the Titans until the final three minutes.  That's not cause for celebration, and why the clownish antics at that point became highly concerning.

[Spider-Dan]

Hilarious that you try to compare "yards per play" and "end zone celebrations" in the same post.  TEN's anger per point allowed was more than tripled during those end zone celebrations!

[Dolfanalyst]

Hilarious that you try to compare "yards per play" and "end zone celebrations" in the same post.  They made the Titans MAD!

Try to follow along so you can avoid strawman arguments.  At no point have I said the Dolphins' end zone celebrations have had an effect on the opposing team.

But at this point we know your agenda here -- it's to follow me around and try to portray me as biased or unknowledgeable.  Anytime you make a post in response to mine we can safely put it in that category.

[Phishfan]

Absolutely nothing to do with the Ravens. Only warning