Miami has zero chance Saturday night

[MaineDolFan]

Call me a fatalist, I’ll say I’m realistic. Maybe this belongs in the anti-Phins, I don’t feel as though I’m ranting here. I’m not even upset, I saw this coming as soon as Miami blew the game at home against Tennessee. There are a couple universal truths about this team which can’t be overlooked:

1: I was FULLY, completely, without question on board with Tua. He was H1M, in my eyes. He’s not.

I love the kid, he’s a great human. He’s overcome a lot. He’s a decent, to average, NFL quarterback. He’s never going to win you a championship. When it matters the most, he will cost you, big, and make a mistake. He doesn’t have it in him. He doesn’t have the physical makeup to be “the guy.” For as much as Miami throws over the middle, I became more and more scared for some of these receivers lives watching Tua hang them out to dry with passes over their heads, time and time again. He did it last night, in the 2nd, with Tyreek. “But he put up great numbers.” Not really. Tyreek Hill was the MVP of this team, without him Tua would literally look like a deer in the headlights. Too often ‘Reek had to adjust his route and make a spectacular catch for a weird ball throw by Tua.

The coaching staff knew this team needed stitches and went and got the world’s best bandaid instead. It almost worked. The issue is, in the NFL, injuries are the great equalizer.

2: The defense is playing out of its mind but I think they made their last stand, last night, against Buffalo. Mahomes won’t give Miami the “full Josh Allen experience” like Chris Collinsworth likes to jizz about, over and over about last night. Pacheco is better than any RB on the Bill’s roster. While the Chiefs don’t have a standout WR like Diggs, Rice is problematic and Kelsey is ridiculous. Who is going to put any pressure on Mahomes? I’ll wait.

KC has a great o-line, and it’s going to be around 10 degrees at game time.

3: KC’s defense is ranked #2 in the league in overall yards surrendered.  They are the #2 passing defense in the league. They are midpack on rushing defense (17th), which isn’t exactly a weakness. They are #3, scoring defense, and they allow the 2nd least points per game (15.8, just .3 behind Baltimore).

All of that against a coach who, for all of his rah rah and clever quips to the media and funny anecdotes on Hard Knocks, can’t put together a cohesive game plan together when it matters the most; or stick to one when it matters. In short, if Tua doesn’t cough up the game, McDaniel will.

Miami’s season died on December 11th when they failed to stop a two point conversion and couldn’t beat a 5 win Titans team at home, allowing Will Levis to come in and look like the next coming of Tom Brady in the process. The first round bye was gone after that, squandered a three game divisional lead and now their season is going to die a cold, painful death at the hands of the Chiefs in KC.

This one won’t even be close.

But, hey, at least we will have McDaniel rattling on and on after about how this is building to the future or some nonsense like that after.

[CF DolFan]

I hate to admit it but I'm there with you. I've been a big supporter but its obvious Tua has a ceiling. He played all 17 games and is better than most QBs playing but he shuts down against good teams and doesn't seem to be able to rise to the occasion when it matters most. It's really hard to figure out what to do though as like I said he is obviously better than most QBs. We've spent 25 years trying to find someone this good so kind of hard to throw the baby out with the bathwater. 

[Sunstroke]

Miami is fine...
Tua is fine...

Chicken Littling things (the sky is falling, the sky is falling!)...not so fine

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I put the odds at about 1/3. 

[Dolfanalyst]

The defending Super Bowl champions are not losing a first-round home playoff game the following year against a team with as little mettle as this one has.

Over the past four games the Dolphins have the 3rd-worst offense in the league in the second halves of games (-0.289 EPA). Only the Jets and Falcons have been worse.

So, when all the marbles are at stake and teams are making late-season pushes to get into the playoffs and get the highest seeds possible, the Dolphins have regrouped as a team at halftime of those games and then taken the field and performed worse offensively than 29 of the other 31 teams in the league.

That suggests a tremendous problem with culture and leadership.  Once again, it's a team of goofballs that can't get serious and bear down when it needs to, and that's a reflection of its head coach.

The root of the issue here is that McDaniel came aboard and immediately started pampering Tua, putting together hours of tape that told him how good he was, while laughing and joking with him constantly.  So what we have now is a fledgling head coach who can't instill any toughness or resolve into his team because he's an utter goofball and can't be serious himself, paired with a diminutive quarterback who's been pampered and feels eminently "comfortable" and can't rise to the occasion in the face of adversity.  Put those two things together and you have a team with no backbone.

The two guys in the most prominent leadership positions on the team -- the head coach and the starting quarterback -- are utter softies who inspire no toughness or resolve.  They're too busy playing and joking with each other in their miniature mutual admiration society.  That's why this team gets manhandled by good teams like it does.  It's literally laughable to watch when you contrast it with how winning coaches and players typically interact.

[masterfins]

Over the past four games the Dolphins have the 3rd-worst offense in the league in the second halves of games (-0.289 EPA). Only the Jets and Falcons have been worse.

As an "analyst" you really are overstating a small sample size.  Three of the four games were against one of the top teams in the NFC (which they won), and the top two out of three teams in the AFC.

I'm definitely not happy with how the offense performed last night given they had most of their offensive line back, but I'm not about to say they are the 3rd worst offense in the league.

[Dolfanalyst]

As an "analyst" you really are overstating a small sample size.  Three of the four games were against one of the top teams in the NFC (which they won), and the top two out of three teams in the AFC.

Against the same teams in the first halves of those games the Dolphins had the 3rd-best offense in the league (0.191 EPA).  So unless those teams' defenses and the Dolphins' offense magically transformed at the half in terms of skill and ability, the Dolphins have a culture and leadership problem.  When the going gets tough, they get manhandled.

[Spider-Dan]

The defending Super Bowl champions are not losing a first-round home playoff game the following year against a team with as little mettle as this one has.

I see that you deleted your post announcing your departure from this forum... that you made after MIA beat DAL and clinched a playoff spot.  I guess after two losses to end the season, the allure of coming back here to shit on the Dolphins was just too strong for you to stay away!

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Here's the thing I don't understand about the avalanche of Dolphin doomer posts across the internet today: why not wait 6 days?  After MIA Definitely Gets Smashed by KC on Saturday, you'll have an entire offseason to post about how Tua is a bust and McDaniel is a fraud.  Why unnecessarily expose yourself to the risk of the Dolphins pulling out a fluky win by going this hard when there are still playoff games left to play?

[Dolfanalyst]

I see that you deleted your post announcing your departure from this forum... that you made after MIA beat DAL and clinched a playoff spot.  I guess after two losses to end the season, the allure of coming back here to shit on the Dolphins was just too strong for you to stay away!

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Here's the thing I don't understand about the avalanche of Dolphin doomer posts across the internet today: why not wait 6 days?  After MIA Definitely Gets Smashed by KC on Saturday, you'll have an entire offseason to post about how Tua is a bust and McDaniel is a fraud.  Why unnecessarily expose yourself to the risk of the Dolphins pulling out a fluky win by going this hard when there are still playoff games left to play?

No someone else deleted it.  And there was nothing in the post indicating my moratorium would be permanent.

As for the second point, is "message board credibility" really a thing?  Name one person on any of the Dolphins' message boards who's viewed as an authority because of the credibility he or she has amassed.

[Denver2]

Well the good thing is Saturday night I have no expectations so a win would be grand and I’m numb so getting blown out wouldn’t even phase me.

I really hope Miami gets the win and they can KC is vulnerable and not the same but as f today what a really disappointing season.

Should be used to it but it never gets easier.

Dolphins still making me cry since 1997

[Downunder Dolphan]

Losing both Baker and AVG hurts whatever chances we had, a lot.

To me this season reminds me a lot of last season - we started out very strong when we have a good chunk of our squad healthy, but eventually the sheer amount of injuries to key players took their toll and we ran out of gas. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if like last year in the Wild Card, we put up one hell of a fight and just fall short again.

To be honest we've done a decent amount of "next man up" reasonably well for good chunks of this year - Jones and Cotton filled in nicely for Hunt & Wynn, we seemed to kick on after losing Phillips, as well not having Ramsey for a decent stretch at the start of the year. But the time Chubb did his ACL and X was either out or playing injured, you knew we were up against it. We are well overdue for some luck coming our way.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Injuries don’t explain why Mia went 10-0 against twams with a losing record and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Team is a slightly above average team with the third easiest schedule in the league.

[CF DolFan]

Injuries didn't make the Miami offense useless in the second half against Buffalo. The defense has an unusual amount of injuries but yet showed up. We can debate the reason why but it's undeniable that our offense shrinks against good opponents and its even worse when we are away.

[Dolfanalyst]

Injuries don’t explain why Mia went 10-0 against twams with a losing record and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Team is a slightly above average team with the third easiest schedule in the league.

Injuries also don't explain the discrepancy between their first-half performance and their second-half performance over the last four games.  What best explains that is massive dysfunction with regard to the cohesion and galvanization (or the lack thereof in this instance) a team should experience at the halves of important games, which reflects a culture and leadership issue.

[CF DolFan]

Injuries also don't explain the discrepancy between their first-half performance and their second-half performance over the last four games.  What best explains that is massive dysfunction with regard to the cohesion and galvanization (or the lack thereof in this instance) a team should experience at the halves of important games, which reflects a culture and leadership issue.

Maybe it's me but I always find it amusing when you, a bona fide stat man, tries to use hypothetical emotional reasons to explain why you are right. With that said I don't think it's a cultural thing at all. Maybe a mind set per se but definitely not cultural because our defense is still kicking with practice players.