Dolphins sending mixed signals with Tua

[CF DolFan]

If I was Tua and they don't re-sign me I would sit out just like Lamar did. He only has to play 6 games to be eligible for the season credit so he's got time. He is only guaranteed 23 million and will make that back when he gets a new contract. he has to worry about a career ending injury.  I think Lawrence was guaranteed almost 142 million. Considering Tua's health history guaranteed money is more important than what he would lose by holding out half the season. It isn't like he is broke. Besides, it seems like Mike White and Skyler are trying to get him paid since they are continuing to struggle.

[Pappy13]

Besides, it seems like Mike White and Skyler are trying to get him paid since they are continuing to struggle.

Keep in mind the only reason that White and Skyler are the backups is because of Tua. If you lose Tua you bring in someone a lot more accomplished than Mike White or Skyler. I don't know who that would be (perhaps Dak?) but it could happen and it wouldn't be the worst thing to happen in my opinion. I'm not saying that a long term contract for Tua will kill us either, it won't but I'm not convinced it's in our best interests either.

I got a feeling once the season gets closer both sides will work out a deal. Neither side wants to go into this season without having a QB for the future. It's just a matter of putting a dollar amount on that. Tua's injury history is as much of a problem for Tua as it is for Miami.

[CF DolFan]

I saw a bar chart in regards to teams and starting QBs since 2000. Cleveland leads the league but Miami and Dallas aren't far behind. I would think the fear of resorting to back to what we were prior to Tua would be motivation enough to sign him. Maybe something comes along as a better option but nothing out there right now. Maybe Tannehill a few years ago. You need a happy QB and receivers or this offense will struggle.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Keep in mind the only reason that White and Skyler are the backups is because of Tua.

White is a complete and utter waste of cap space. WTF did we do that for?

[Downunder Dolphan]

I got a feeling once the season gets closer both sides will work out a deal. Neither side wants to go into this season without having a QB for the future. It's just a matter of putting a dollar amount on that. Tua's injury history is as much of a problem for Tua as it is for Miami.

Plus the Miami salary cap squeeze (no it's not BS, it is an actual thing we have to deal with)

My prediction: Tua's injury history will be an excuse to make us stretch out his rookie deal to the end of the season. This year is literally boom or bust: all the casino chips are in.

Then the crunch will come. Tua will be franchised for a season, or Tyreek (and a few other big names) will be cut to pay market rates for his extension. By then either Tua has proven himself, or the following bust could be a complete implosion.

Ross wants a Championship, and he wants it right now. Two years time (maybe even one years time) he's probably not gonna be around to dwell over the mess. Neither will a lot of other guys. This year will either be glory or the start of a massive train wreck. Get used to the idea, it will hurt a lot less when it happens.

[Pappy13]

White is a complete and utter waste of cap space. WTF did we do that for?

Because Tua is 1 concussion away from not playing and you have to have 2 healthy QB's at all times that know McDaniels system. You can't just bring in a guy from the street for a couple weeks and hope he doesn't play. You have to have 2 guys as Tua's backup at ALL times. That's just the reality of it.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Because Tua is 1 concussion away from not playing and you have to have 2 healthy QB's at all times that know McDaniels system. You can't just bring in a guy from the street for a couple weeks and hope he doesn't play. You have to have 2 guys as Tua's backup at ALL times. That's just the reality of it.

Skylar was more than capable as a #2. He was a #3 behind Tua and Teddy the previous season, dumped in at the last second did a hell of a lot better than Teddy as a third string with basically no reps. He played the last game of the season with everything to lose on a strict "don't fuck up" regime, and was pretty decent in the playoff game. That should have earned him then #2 spot last season. Plus he's on a rookie 7th round pick contract... and then we go and pay millions to Mike White who is no better (arguably worse).

It's a total waste of money. As soon as Teddy was gone, you commit to Skylar as #2, and if Tua gets hurt you grab another guy off the street (or preferably better) as Skylar's backup. White was a horrible choice. End of story.

[Spider-Dan]

Skylar was more than capable as a #2. He was a #3 behind Tua and Teddy the previous season, dumped in at the last second did a hell of a lot better than Teddy as a third string with basically no reps. He played the last game of the season with everything to lose on a strict "don't fuck up" regime, and was pretty decent in the playoff game.

Sorry, but Skylar was bad.  Teddy definitely played better.

In the last game of the season, he was 20/31 for 152yds, 0TD, 0INT with a passer rating of 76.3 (against a 7-10 Jets team).
In the playoff game, he was 18/45 for 220yds, 1TD, 2INT with a passer rating of 44.7.

This is with the same amazing offensive weapons that everyone uses to dismiss Tua's stats.

[Brian Fein]

In that context, is he worth a top 10 salary? I'm sure he and his agent will say so. But the proof will be when he either gets an extension from the dolphins, or plays out his contract and gets a big free agent deal somewhere else.

On a semi-related tangent, does Brock Purdy get a top 5 QB contract from the 49ers ?

The problem is no one gets a "top 5 contract" - everyone gets a "top 1" contract.  EVERYONE.  the bar just keeps going up and up because no one wants to re-tool at QB.

So yes, Brock Purdy, when he is up for renewal, will be the highest paid player in nfl history.

[Spider-Dan]

The problem is no one gets a "top 5 contract" - everyone gets a "top 1" contract.  EVERYONE.  the bar just keeps going up and up because no one wants to re-tool at QB.

Yes, and this includes all your competition.  So what's the problem?

The only thing that matters is that everyone else is forced to pay the same big QB contracts as you.  That's parity.

[Fau Teixeira]

Until a franchise says no, and pulls a moneyball, re-puposes all that QB money into WR, DE, CB and everywhere else, and relies on rookie contract QBs for a sustained run of success.

the NFL of all leagues is one where sometimes if everyone is zigging, someone is going to zag and win

[CF DolFan]

Sorry, but Skylar was bad.  Teddy definitely played better.

In the last game of the season, he was 20/31 for 152yds, 0TD, 0INT with a passer rating of 76.3 (against a 7-10 Jets team).
In the playoff game, he was 18/45 for 220yds, 1TD, 2INT with a passer rating of 44.7.

This is with the same amazing offensive weapons that everyone uses to dismiss Tua's stats.

Both Waddle and Hill had some big drops in this game and yet we only lost by 3. This was a game we should have stolen.

[Spider-Dan]

Until a franchise says no, and pulls a moneyball, re-puposes all that QB money into WR, DE, CB and everywhere else, and relies on rookie contract QBs for a sustained run of success.

If there was someone who could figure out how to win consistently with mediocre QBs, they would already be emperor of the league.

The best case scenario for rookie QB success is that you find a good one and keep him, not that you find good ones and then let them walk so you can keep drafting QBs perpetually.

[masterfins]

But none of that even matters.  In a league where Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert all sign top-dollar contracts, what is the argument for why Tua should take less?

Off the top of my head I can't think of the name of another player on the Cardinals or Chargers, Murray and Herbert are the face of those teams and it is a big part of why they are getting paid.  Kirk Cousins has at least had some success in the league.  Tua deserves more than the $23M he's due to get, but it's not $55M a year money; more like $40M.

[Spider-Dan]

So Murray and Herbert deserved to get paid not for personal performance or wins, but because they were "the face of the team"?  Tua is the first Dolphins QB to make the Pro Bowl in over a quarter-century.  The Dolphins should be desperately trying to establish him as the face of the team... unless you think they would prefer to have Tyreek Hill representing the franchise?

At the time Kirk Cousins signed his league-leading deal, he had a cumulative record of 26-30-1, going 0-1 in his only playoff appearance.  (Tua's record: 32-19, 0-1 playoffs.)  Whatever "success" you might have attributed to Cousins, Tua has had more.