The elephant in the room

[Phishfan]

I don't think that the assassination attempt on Trump is going to sway any voters much less enough to sway the election but this feels like the moment you know deep down inside where the side you are rooting for has lost even more so than the debate. There is no way Biden wins this election.  As a  registered no party affiliate that leans left I strongly suggest that the Democrats find a young vibrant male that is centrist econically and left socially. We won't get Roe back for generations so the ultra progressive wing better understand a message of unity and partnership is the only path to gaining control. The general public is voting with their wallet if you want sway voters right now.

[Spider-Dan]

As a  registered no party affiliate that leans left I strongly suggest that the Democrats find a young vibrant male that is centrist econically and left socially.

Whom do you suggest they run?  I mean, an actual name.

Democrats do not have the option of running Generic Democrat; it has to be a person that exists, and all of those people have dramatic downsides compared to sticking with your incumbent president and runaway primary winner.  Personally, I don't believe that throwing out all the primary votes and discarding the VP so they can nominate Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is a smart idea, but if you're of the opinion that Democrats have to Do Something, it's definitely something.  It is worth mentioning that at this point in 1988, Michael Dukakis was leading George HW Bush by 17 points, and at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by 3.5 points.  Trump is currently leading Biden by 2.2 points.

And on that subject: how is it that Trump's 34 felony convictions don't matter at all, but the failed assassination clinches the election that's four months from now?  I think some people are wishcasting (or maybe doomcasting).

And finally:

The general public is voting with their wallet if you want sway voters right now.

If American voters actually cared about the economy:

1) They would not have put Republicans back into power only two years after Bush's Great Recession
2) Trump wouldn't have won in 2016
3) Biden would be absolutely blowing Trump away right now

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I dunno if this will hurt Biden.

Biden looked quite presidential when condemning the attack on Trump.  I am hopeful that as people recognize that the Biden and other democrats condemn all political violence.  But Trump and the republicans blame Biden for the assignation attempt while continuing to praise the Jan  6 rioters and mocking of the attack on Paul Pelosi.  

This might offer the greatest opportunity to contrast the two candidates and parties.  

Also any complaint that democrats have compared Trumps actions to that of a german dictator can be retorted with his own vice president candidate compared him to Hitler.   

[Fau Teixeira]

I think this moves the needle in no significant way. Trump cultists already think he's the 2nd coming.  People that think Trump is a con-man won't change their mind because some republican took a pot shot at him.

[Phishfan]

Spider, let me clarify, I'm not suggesting the Democrats identify someone for this election. It's too late for that. They need to find someone for next time. This thing is lost.

[Fau Teixeira]

I disagree, there is no conceivable way that Trump wins in november. It will not happen. He has a group of very loud supporters. And Trump is good for media ratings, so expect the 24 hour news networks to keep bringing him up, especially since CNN was taken over by a right wing ownership group that are trying to fox-news it.

The problem is people remember the last time Trump was president, and how he was the single worst president anyone had ever lived through. Lost the most jobs, we were the laughing stock of the entire planet.

However, his goose was cooked the minute Roe v Wade was overturned. This presidential immunity ruling was the nail in that coffin. America is done with this guy.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Both extreme predictions are not founded in reality.  The race is wide open.  Campaign doesn’t really start until after Labor Day.  Both sides have paths to victory.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I explained in the other thread (The Presidential Debate) where I think American politics is at. It's not that different from here in Australia that you have rusted on bases, and that most of the efforts to get re-elected are focused on a very narrow base of electoral seats (or in the USA's case states, because of the collegiate system of votes - the most states win, not most votes). Here everyone has to get off their asses to vote as it is compulsory (and in a regulated base at least, have to read something about it and care before they vote, even if it is a non-vote and they draw a gigantic phallus on the ballot paper - compared to over there and the UK who can choose to not show up at all, stay at home and sleep, and then whinge about the result they didn't want after it's happened)

I am most worried about where the whole system is at over there in the USA, not necessarily who gets in. Under the old Westminster system (from the original idea of a true democracy), the separation of powers between Religion, Politics, Judiciary (including Police) should be retained to allow the existence to a fair representation of all, rich and poor, genuinely treated as equals. Once those are compromised, democracy begins to die.

In the 21st Century, you can add media (in the West it's Rupert Murdoch; in the rest the it's the Government controlled media, be it Russia, China, North Korea, etc) to that as a 4th and equally important part. I was born at the end of the 1960s (so I luckily missed the Bay of Pigs era), and grew up in the 1970s and 1980s (which right before the old Soviet Union collapsed was widely recognized as the most dangerous period in regard to a possible World War III). I think we are on the border of passing that verge right now... we are in the Year of the Dragon, and the year of living dangerously... right now. The old nuclear clock I think is closer to midnight than its ever been.

As much as I cannot stand Trump and his policies, there is no way I can forgive an assassination attempt on someone representing the people, no matter how narrow, misguided or wrong it may seem. It's fundamentally wrong, even with the damage he has already done. It's up to the people who can make a difference at the ballet box to peacefully make a difference. But that's a damnation on your country and your values.

In a country of 330+ million people, seriously how the hell can these two senile/deranged fossils can be trusted to represent you? How did you let this happen? When you guys openly talk about shooting someone you don't like...  this is not the bastion of democracy the USA pretends to be. It's more like a South Pacific island, or a random country in Africa in an unending civil war. How the hell did it come to this?

[SCFinfan]

I think the assassination attempt energized the Trump base. I don't know that it did much beyond that. If Biden has another weak debate performance, I feel he's unlikely to win. If not, (if he performs strongly) then it's definitely going to be a tough battle for either of them.

We'll see. I'll say this - my business has done well under both Trump and Biden, but it was definitely easier under Trump.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I think the assassination attempt energized the Trump base. I don't know that it did much beyond that. If Biden has another weak debate performance, I feel he's unlikely to win. If not, (if he performs strongly) then it's definitely going to be a tough battle for either of them.

We'll see. I'll say this - my business has done well under both Trump and Biden, but it was definitely easier under Trump.

I see that too. As I mentioned a number of times, there's a rusted on base - and that will never change. The polls are indicating that Biden has managed to piss off a chunk of swinging voters who voted for him last election - he will likely lose these voters who will just not show up. Even if they hate Trump, they're not motivated enough to vote against him.

Trump surviving the assassination attempt will just draw more of the extreme right wingers out of the shadows, plus he's getting a huge amount free positive media right now right across the board that will attract the occasional/non-committing voters. Every day there's a story about the shooters motives, his background, etc, and that's a reminder to people of Trump's survival and perceived "strength". In contrast, just about every story about Biden is that he is too old and too frail - and it appears the polls are also reflecting this.

It's like the people who were pissed off that Trump got in 2016 will disappear, but more of those who were pissed off that he didn't get in four years ago will come out. Add to that a very smart campaign by Trump and I think it's a done deal..

[Downunder Dolphan]

I'm just waiting now for Trump to call JFK a loser for having his brains splattered all over the back seat of a car (as if he had any choice in it) compared to him for just being lucky enough to avoid being dead last weekend.

He called McCain a loser for being downed in Vietnam (a draft he avoided 5 times), so I wouldn't rule it out, no matter how repulsive both accusations are.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I'm just waiting now for Trump to call JFK a loser for having his brains splattered all over the back seat of a car (as if he had any choice in it) compared to him for just being lucky enough to avoid being dead last weekend.

He called McCain a loser for being downed in Vietnam (a draft he avoided 5 times), so I wouldn't rule it out, no matter how repulsive both accusations are.

The best advice Trump had going into the last debate was to STFU and not take any of the bait that Biden dangled during it. He didn't bite on anything to do with any court cases... and if he does that he will coast home and win. He just doesn't have to say a word in public especially after the assassination attempt, just show up with his fist in the air and that will be it.

[Pappy13]

There is no way Biden wins this election.

I don't think anything that has happened lately changes the outcome at this point. I still think Biden wins, but I thought Hillary would win too so my track record is pretty bad.

[SCFinfan]

It's looking pretty strong now (if Yahoo news is to be believed) that Biden will step down in the coming days. If that happens, I have no idea what happens to the election.

I think the reason that Biden won in 2020 was due to the mishandling of the pandemic and the fact that we hadn't really "turned the corner" with the vaccines yet. But all that is in the past. Feels like it's about the economy and who's stronger now.

I don't think Kamala does well if that's the direction you go towards. Perhaps Newsom... but man, CA gets a **lot** of bad press. And if you don't live there, you're getting sick of expatriate CA'rs moving to your state (definitely true here in South Carolina). So, I don't know about that.

Maybe Gretchen Whitmer? I could see it but she's got plasticface. I just... I don't know.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Trumps's speech which was promised to be about unity and then wasn't was a worse performance than Biden's debate. 

JD Vance doesn't do anything to help the Republicans.